A composite ranking made up from five different Orioles prospect lists
What is a team supposed to do as a follow-up act to improve on a 101-61 regular season like the Orioles had last year? One way would be to do something like that again and again to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. One path to that is an ongoing infusion of talented young players to add to what’s already a fun core. Already in 2024, that includes Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser, with a handful of guys at Triple-A Norfolk waiting for a shot.
It’s still a loaded Orioles farm system, with the Orioles maintaining a #1 farm system ranking according to both The Athletic’s Keith Law and MLB Pipeline. On the Pipeline ranking, the Orioles have been at the top for six lists in a row, counting both preseason and midseason updates. This is a streak that’s likely to end soon, but it remains impressive.
Who’s left down there? I’m guessing if you’re interested enough in the Orioles to find this, you already know the biggest remaining names. The wave below those guys might not be on your radar yet. To help me figure out who to keep an eye on over the last few years, I’ve been putting together composite rankings made up of several different prospect lists to get a sense of which guys, in the aggregate, are or might soon be interesting.
There are five different prospect lists making up this composite ranking. Four of these are national publications: MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, The Athletic, and ESPN. One is local, coming from the prospect enthusiasts of the On The Verge podcast. Last year’s version of this list included FanGraphs, but as of this writing they only have 2024 lists for ten teams and the Orioles aren’t one of them. I’ve added in ESPN, where FG alum Kiley McDaniel has a ranking as well.
There has been a good amount of turnover in the Orioles system since this time one year ago. Of the players on my same composite list from 2023, seven appeared on the Orioles last year. Four have fully graduated to the MLB level with the O’s. Two, DL Hall and Joey Ortiz, were traded earlier this year. Two other players from the lower levels of last year’s list – Drew Rom and César Prieto – were dealt at the deadline last year.
#1 – Jackson Holliday
- Starting level: Triple-A Norfolk (now in MLB)
- How he got here: 2022 draft, first round (#1 overall)
- Where he ranked last year: #3
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: He’s already here
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
It’s an easy argument to make that Holliday is the best pure hitting prospect in the game. … He combines (plate) discipline with a short left-handed stroke that delivers consistent hard contact and elite-level exit velocities. Still only 20 for the 2024 season, Holliday continues to add strength, and there’s confidence he’ll drive the ball more — and over the fence — with greater consistency. A plus runner who can steal a base, Holliday has more than enough range, good enough hands and actions and plus instincts to play shortstop for a very long time.
#2 – Samuel Basallo
- Starting level: Double-A Bowie
- How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2021
- Where he ranked last year: #14
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Pretty much zero
- One exciting paragraph (from The Athletic):
Basallo just turned 19 in August and his bat is already very advanced, with a very short but powerful swing and what appears to be very good pitch recognition. While his offense is ahead of his defense, he does project as a catcher, with a cannon of an arm and the hands and athleticism to handle the position … Basallo projects as a power-hitting catcher with a strong OBP and the ability to control the running game, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball.
#3 – Coby Mayo
- Starting level: Norfolk
- How he got here: 2020 draft, fourth round
- Where he ranked last year: #8
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Better than 50/50
- One exciting paragraph (from Baseball America):
Mayo has always boasted plus-plus power, but continued refinement in his swing and plate discipline allowed him to better get to his raw power and dominate the high minors. He cut down on his strikeouts while increasing his walk rate from 9.1% to 15.1%, closing some holes on the outer half with his swing while maintaining his slug and making more consistent hard contact. Mayo cut his chase rate from 27% to 23%, while his hard-hit rate jumped from 31% to 46%. … Mayo represents one of the most improved Orioles’ hitting prospects over the years, as well as one of their highest-upside young players.
#4 – Colton Cowser
- Starting level: MLB
- How he got here: 2021 draft, first round
- Where he ranked last year: #5
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: He’s already here
- One exciting paragraph (from Baseball America):
Cowser has some of the most advanced plate discipline in the system, with good on-base ability and the capability to be an above-average hitter for average … Cowser can have above-average power as he continues to learn which pitches he can best drive, and he improved his hard-hit rate substantially in 2023. Cowser’s above-average speed and arm allow him to play all three outfield positions comfortably.
#5 – Heston Kjerstad
- Starting level: Norfolk
- How he got here: 2020 draft, first round
- Where he ranked last year: #10
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: High, but don’t ask me how they fit him in
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
Kjerstad is looking very much like the left-handed power bat the Orioles hoped they were picking up. He has a combination of strength and bat speed and makes a ton of hard contact, showing the ability to drive the ball over the fence and for extra bases to all fields. His overall approach improved in 2023 … Kjerstad is an athletic outfielder and fits nicely in right field with an above-average arm.
#6 – Enrique Bradfield Jr.
- Starting level: High-A Aberdeen
- How he got here: 2023 draft, first round
- Where he ranked last year: Not ranked (not drafted yet)
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from Baseball America):
Bradfield has a pair of elite carrying tools in his 80-grade speed and center field defense, which together create a pretty high floor for his major league future. Advanced baserunning instincts could put him near the top of the league in stolen bases throughout his prime. He was drafted into an organization that has a track record for improving hitters with particular traits, and when it comes to the ability to manage the strike zone and make consistent contact without much whiff, Bradfield certainly qualifies.
#7 – Connor Norby
- Starting level: Norfolk
- How he got here: 2021 draft, second round
- Where he ranked last year: #9
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Pretty good, but don’t ask me how they fit him in
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
A right-handed hitter with a simple, compact swing, Norby is quick to the ball and makes consistent loud contact. He punishes fastballs and is adept enough at recognizing spin to more than hold his own against breaking stuff … subtle changes to his approach have turned what looked like solid extra-base power into at least solid over-the-fence pop.
#8 – Dylan Beavers
- Starting level: Bowie
- How he got here: 2022 draft, CBA round
- Where he ranked last year: #11
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
A polished left-handed hitter, Beavers generated Christian Yelich comps in college, and when things are going right, can look like a five-tool talent with easy plus raw power and a willingness to draw walks that offsets some of his swing-and-miss.
#9 – Cade Povich
- Starting level: Norfolk
- How he got here: Jorge López trade, July 2022
- Where he ranked last year: #12
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Strong
- One exciting paragraph (from Baseball America):
Povich’s best pitch is his tailing four-seam fastball, which averaged 92 mph and was up to 95 with the potential to be above-average for its ability to generate swinging strikes up in the zone as well as ground balls. He used his high-80s cutter more in 2023, especially as a swing-and-miss weapon to lefthanded hitters … his big 74-77 mph curveball is also a weapon to batters of both hands. Povich’s changeup made strides in 2023, especially in Triple-A, and can be an average weapon to righties.
#10 – Chayce McDermott
- Starting level: Norfolk
- How he got here: Trey Mancini trade, July 2022
- Where he ranked last year: #18 (tied)
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Decent, if he stops walking too many dudes
- One exciting paragraph (from The Athletic):
McDermott came over from Houston in the Trey Mancini deal, and he’s developed significantly since the trade, adding pitches and improving what he had already, to go from a likely two-pitch reliever to a probable starter. … he had no platoon split last year, and his changeup and cutter both look like at least 55s. If he throws more strikes, he’s got some mid-rotation upside.
#11 – Seth Johnson
- Starting level: Bowie
- How he got here: Trey Mancini trade, July 2022
- Where he ranked last year: #15
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Decent, since he’s already on the 40-man roster
- One exciting paragraph (from Baseball America):
Johnson’s post-surgery delivery remains athletic and fluid. His fastball averaged 95 mph over his rehab stints with hoppy life at the top of the zone. While his slider was slow to return to form, it remains at least a plus future pitch in the mid 80s with late bite, and the Orioles believe targeting improvements and grip adjustments can help him regain its quality.
#12 – Mac Horvath
- Starting level: Aberdeen
- How he got here: 2023 draft, second round
- Where he ranked last year: Not ranked (not drafted yet)
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
Horvath uses bat speed and strength to generate at least plus raw power, and he’s especially adept at trusting his quick, powerful hands to turn on inside pitches and hammer mistakes in the zone. … He does know how to see pitches and walked at a higher clip in his debut than he did in college. That on-base ability jives with above-average speed that enabled him to steal 14 bases in 15 attempts last summer.
#13 – Luis de León
- Starting level: Low-A Delmarva
- How he got here: International amateur signing, December 2021
- Where he ranked last year: Not ranked
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from Baseball America):
There’s plenty of projection in De León’s athletic 6-foot-3 frame, but his present-day stuff is hardly lacking. He averaged 95 mph on his fastball, giving it plus potential from the left side. He primarily attacks with his fastball and a high-80s changeup that can be an above-average pitch … because of its significant horizontal fade and his ability to command the pitch. De León made progress with a hard slider in 2023 that gives him both another movement profile for hitters to consider and another potentially above-average pitch. De León’s ability to induce weak contact is an early strength
#14 – Jud Fabian
- Starting level: Bowie
- How he got here: 2022 draft, CBB round
- Where he ranked last year: #13
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
His entire career, Fabian has displayed a tantalizing combination of power and speed aside of the holes in his game. He generates legit bat speed and power from the right side of the plate and has good wheels and excellent instincts on the bases … His speed and instincts benefit him as a defender. Fabian’s ability to read balls off the bat and run efficient routes point to a long-term future in center field, and he possesses one of the better outfield throwing arms in the Orioles system
#15 (tied) – Jackson Baumeister
- Starting level: Aberdeen
- How he got here: 2023 draft, CBB round
- Where he ranked last year: Not ranked (not drafted yet)
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from The Athletic):
Baumeister had a rough go at Florida State but the 2023 competitive balance round B pick is 92-95 mph with riding life up in the zone along with an average curveball and slightly below-average changeup. He has the size and delivery to start if the Orioles can help him substantially improve his command and develop that third pitch. I’m intrigued by what the O’s can do here.
#15 (tied) – Braylin Tavera
- Starting level: Delmarva
- How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2022
- Where he ranked last year: #27 (tied)
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from Baseball America):
A lean, athletic player with a projectable frame, Tavera’s swing decision improvements came amid an overall offensive jump in which his contact rates and exit velocities trended up from 2022 … he showed traits of a future average hitter with potentially above-average power as he continues to get physically stronger, which will help him better solidify his movements. An above-average runner with an average arm, Tavera has the traits to play an above-average center field at his peak
#15 (tied) – Max Wagner
- Starting level: Bowie (injured list)
- How he got here: 2022 draft, second round
- Where he ranked last year: #16
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
Wagner is a strong right-handed hitter with a short, quick swing and some power … His exit velocities suggest he can be an average hitter with improvements to his barrel path and spin recognition, especially with two strikes. He’s always shown an ability to draw walks and can steal some bases despite average speed.
#18 – Leandro Arias
- Starting level: Delmarva
- How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2022
- Where he ranked last year: #26
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
A switch-hitting infielder, Arias controls the strike zone well and demonstrates good bat-to-ball skills while flashing raw power that could be a plus tool in the future … he’s athletic enough to maintain his speed as he adds strength. He’s an average runner whose good instincts enable his speed to play up and he knows how to steal a base
#19 – Luis Almeyda
- Starting level: Presumably Florida Complex League
- How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2023
- Where he ranked last year: #21
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- One exciting paragraph (from Baseball America):
Almeyda proved a quick study upon signing with the Orioles. He showed improvement in his ability to control the strike zone and with his bat-to-ball skills while demonstrating impressive top-end exit velocities. … his long limbs and developing strength give him the potential for plus power as he physically matures. He boasts smooth, controlled movements and the requisite footwork to play an above-average shortstop.
#20 – Justin Armbruester
- Starting level: Norfolk
- How he got here: 2021 draft, twelfth round
- Where he ranked last year: #22
- Chance of seeing him on the Orioles this year: I give it 20%
- One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):
Armbruester is a big, physical right-hander with intriguing stuff that he tinkers with frequently, sometimes with immediate success. … Armbruester uses an awkward delivery and funky arm slot to hide the ball well, using that deception to help his stuff play up. His success really hinges on that and his command. When he locates everything well, he controls the zone and can miss bats with multiple pitches.
The next ten names and where to find them
21. RHP Trace Bright (Bowie)
22. RHP Kiefer Lord (Delmarva, injured list)
23. RHP Juan Nuñez (Aberdeen)
24. RHP Alex Pham (Bowie)
T-25. IF Frederick Bencosme (Bowie)
T-25. IF Joshua Liranzo (presumably Florida Complex League)
T-27. OF Thomas Sosa (Delmarva)
T-27. OF Jake Cunningham (Delmarva, injured list)
T-27. OF John Rhodes (Bowie)
30. IF Emilio Sanchez (presumably Dominican Summer League)
In the composite list from a year ago, the top 11 prospects all were drafted by the Orioles. They’ve got a bit more variety now, with two international signings in the top 13 and three players who were acquired in trades.
Will the O’s of the next few years have many chances to trade for more prospects? It doesn’t seem likely right now. There’s a better chance the Orioles will be trading prospects away, as they’ve now done a few times in the last 18 months. They’ll have to do their best to keep finding prospects in the draft now that they’re not routinely picking in the top 5 every year.
The Orioles will also have to hope that they can more regularly get talent that benefits the organization out of the international signing market. The development of Basallo, along with a number of other hopefuls both on this list and not (such as Aberdeen’s 20-year-old righty Moisés Chace) has given reason to believe they can manage to do it.