The history of recent derby winners, along with a more hitter friendly format, suggests the Home Run Derby will be harmless for Henderson’s second half
After expressing interest in a Home Run Derby bid earlier this month, Gunnar Henderson became the first confirmed participant in the 2024 Derby after his announcement on Sunday Night Baseball. As Paul highlighted in yesterday’s Bird Droppings, Orioles shortstops and Home Run Derbies are usually a dynamic combination—with Miguel Tejada the most recent O’s Derby winner 20 years ago, and Cal Ripken Jr. taking home the homer hardware in 1991.
However, that history won’t stop some fans from allowing worry to creep into their minds, concerned that Gunnar’s Derby debut could prove a bad omen for his production in the second half. This may have been a legitimate concern under the old Derby format that many of us grew up with, where participants had 10 “outs” to hit as many home runs as possible. Bobby Abreu’s 2005 Home Run Derby win—and his subsequent second-half slump—was the cautionary tale most pointed to when warning against Derby participation.
After putting up a first half that earned him a starting spot in the 2005 Midsummer Classic, Abreu wowed in the Home Run Derby, setting a record with 24 HRs in the first round and 41 total long balls. That success during All-Star week completely failed to transfer to the second half for the Phillies’ OF. After hitting 18 HRs in the first half, Abreu managed only six homers after the All-Star break and saw his slugging percentage drop from .526 in the first half to .411 in the second half.
Under the Home Run Derby format from the Bud Selig era of baseball, it was easier to understand how participating in the Derby might create some bad swing habits that could carry over to the second half of the season. By being limited to just 10 swings that didn’t result in a HR, Derby participants of yesteryear couldn’t swing freely—resulting in some overly cautious approaches and Derby outings that noticeably lacked rhythm. If that lack of rhythm carried over at all into the second half of the season, players’ timing could get thrown off and it could contribute to the type of dropoff we saw from Abreu.
In 2015, MLB drastically altered the Home Run Derby format, doing away with the “outs” system in favor of timed rounds that allowed players to swing at as many pitches as they wanted. As a result of this change, we got a more free swinging Derby that better replicated a normal batting practice session—just with way more long balls.
Coinciding with that change in the format, we’ve seen participants in the Home Run Derby largely beat the allegations that the Derby was going to ruin their swing. The last five Derby winners—Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Pete Alonso (twice) and Bryce Harper—combined to post nearly identical stats in the second half as they did in the first half.
That quartet collectively hit .252 in the first half of the season, while putting up a .502 slugging percentage. In their respective second halves, those numbers barely changed, with the combined average jumping up to .257 and their collective slugging percentage only dipping to .494. They also largely maintained their home run rates, as they averaged a HR every 17 ABs before the All-Star break to long ball every 18.4 ABs after the break.
Gunnar will have to deal with another format change this year in the Home Run Derby, as the MLB institutes a hybrid version of the timed round and “outs” system. The time in the first two rounds has been reduced from four minutes to three, and there is now a pitch cap of 40 pitches per round. Instead of getting bonus time, participants get bonus outs—as after the three minutes/40 pitches, they’ll get three additional outs to hit as many home runs as possible. Competitors can earn an additional out by hitting a HR over 425 feet in the bonus round.
These changes are undoubtedly going to make players press a little bit more in the early parts of the round, as they try to ensure they see all of the maximum 40 pitches. However, Gunnar speeding up his swing could actually play to his advantage in the Derby. Globe Life Field has deep power alleys, meaning getting out in front and pulling the ball down the line will be the O’s shortstop’s best chance at racking up big home run numbers.
If he can make that adjustment and speed up his swing a little bit when the games count again, it could help him be more productive against fastballs. While Gunnar has been more productive against fastballs in 2024 than 2023, his numbers against heaters still trail behind his output against breaking balls and offspeed pitches.
Through the first half of the season, Gunnar has the second best slugging percentage in the MLB against curveballs and similarly destroys sliders and sweepers. However, against four-seam fastballs, the MLB’s leader in WAR is slugging only .505—putting him closer to Anthony Volpe than the MLB’s elites. If the new derby format gets him swinging more aggressively against heaters, we could see his numbers against fastballs jump in the second half.
If you want even more reason to believe that Gunnar will go to the Derby and emerge unscathed, look no further than Adley Rutschman’s post-Derby performance last year. Despite an awe-inspiring performance in last year’s Derby, Adley crashed out in the first round. Perhaps that disappointment motivated him in the second half of the season, as his batting average and slugging percentage both improved post All-Star break.
And if we’ve learned anything about Gunnar during his first 1,000+ ABs as an Oriole, it’s that has an ability to adjust that belies his age. It’s those adjustments that, last year, saw him go from a player barely hitting over .200 in the first two months to the unanimous AL Rookie of the Year. Further adjustments this year have him on pace to produce the greatest season from a leadoff hitter in AL, while challenging the Orioles single-season record for WAR.
Yes, participating in the Home Run Derby will undoubtedly cause Gunnar to make some swing adjustments to maximize his chance at winning. But if there’s anyone who can make those adjustments, and then go back to dominating regular pitching like they never happened, it’s the Orioles’ Country Boy.