When Keith Law of The Athletic was stacking up how to rank some Orioles’ minor league pitching prospects, one was standing out with his stuff and perhaps wound up higher on his top 20 team list than he might have thought when he began his evaluations.
It was a pitcher who had impressive stats in 2024 in lower levels and touched 97 and 98 mph with his fastball. He got some attention within the industry, even if media and fans were not yet jumping on his bandwagon.
That pitcher is right-hander Nestor German, taken in round 11 by the Orioles in 2023 out of the University of Seattle and signed to a $150,000 bonus.
In new team lists recently released, he ranks as the O’s No. 8 prospect by The Athletic and is No. 11 via Baseball America.
Not bad for a little-known pitcher taken No. 331 overall in the draft. The O’s may have found a sleeper here in the same round where they selected John Means in 2014.
German, who turns 23 February 26th, began last year with Low-A Delmarva and made 14 appearances. He moved to High-A Aberdeen in August, pitching seven more times.
In the combined 21 games between the Shorebirds and IronBirds, he went 3-3 with a 1.59 ERA over 73 2/3 innings, allowing 17 walks with 90 strikeouts. He recorded a 0.94 WHIP, and he kept the ball down with a 49.7 groundball rate, allowing just two home runs. He had a 31.4 strikeout percentage.
German, born in Seattle, has good size at 6 feet 3, 225 pounds and allowed one run or less in 18 of his 21 games last year. He was limited often to four innings or less and spent a few weeks mid-summer on the injured list.
But some of those numbers grab your attention.
And while Law ranked him No. 8, he’s not ready to jump on his bandwagon here and project a breakout pitcher for 2025 that could push for a top 100 list.
“I have not seen him live but just saw video and have some data and have talked to other teams. And the Orioles are high on him to be clear. But I don’t know that he has that kind of upside,” Law said. “Right now it may be the case of a guy whose stuff is really good and it was blowing away minor league hitters.
“He is going to have to get tested by upper-level hitters and then we will have a much better read on what his future is. Guys that can move the ball like that – I watch a lot of low-minors ball – there were some guys at those levels that had no chance against him. I just want to see him do it at higher levels.”
Fair enough, but no one can take away that fantastic 2024 for German. Among O’s minor league pitchers throwing 70 or more innings, he ranked first in ERA, FIP (2.17), WHIP and batting average against. He was second in walks per nine (2.08) and third in groundball percentage.
He had a strong 18.3 percent swing-and-miss rate to lead O’s farmhands with 70 plus innings. By comparison, Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, a fellow University of Seattle product and the AL Cy Young Winner, had a 14.6 rate in the big leagues.
“He came into the system with no hype, no attention,” Law said. “And I think he may have surprised the Orioles, too. So, my guess is they will be a lot more aggressive with him this year [in terms of promotions], and we’ll get a better idea. I don’t think he’s a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, but I think he’s a starter. And maybe he will prove me wrong and get to Double-A and Triple-A and keep mowing them down, and we’ll have to bump up our expectations accordingly.”
Baseball America listed German’s average fastball at 93.4 mph for last summer and added he can throw his slider in the high 80s. His curveball could be his top secondary pitch, and he adds a splitter for a four-pitch mix.
In his last season in college, German posted a 5.97 ERA and allowed 17 homers over 78 innings, but he’s been much better for the Shorebirds and IronBirds.
In his last 10 games of the season – three for Delmarva and seven for Aberdeen – German posted a 1.21 ERA with five walks and 45 strikeouts over 37 1/3 innings.
If he is throwing well this spring, the O’s might have to make a tough call to just send him back for more innings at Aberdeen, because threw only 25 1/3 there. But at some point, they will need to see him take on Double-A hitters.