His stuff is even better in ’24, which is kind of scary.
A couple days ago, MLB ran a piece making use of Statcast’s new bat-tracking metrics. Turns out, bat speed and hard-hit percentage are old news, people—you can now measure how well a batter makes contact with the ball. They call it a “squared-up swing.” This is one in which the exit velocity is at least 80% of the maximum exit velocity attainable on a pitch. To square or not to square is important, because the difference in outcomes on squared-up contact, compared with contact that is not, is vast:
Squared-up swings: .369/.649 AVG/SLG (57% hard-hit rate)
Not squared-up swings: .203/.229 AVG/SLG (0.3% hard-hit rate)
Pitchers, through sequence or velocity or location or delivery or whatever, can affect how difficult it is to square them up, and MLB wanted to issue a list of the Top Toughest. Number One might not surprise you: it’s Kyle Bradish.
Whether you dig this new generation of bat-tracking stats or not, it’s nice to see Bradish getting kudos. For a guy as good as he is, he remains a rather under-the-radar ace, even after finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting last year. He’s the rare case of a top starting pitcher who throws even better than even the most fanatical of home fans realize. Partly this is because, after spending a month on the shelf in April with a sprained UCL, he returned to action in May, and failed to go more than five innings in any of his first four starts, while walking at least two in each. Pitch inefficiency was a concern, just as it was in early 2023, when Bradish had difficulty finishing people off.
But—save for a 2 2/3-inning stinker against Tampa Bay—his last two outings have been sheer brilliance. He no-hit the White Sox over seven innings, striking out 11, and on June 8 against the Rays, not a single hitter got a ball out of the infield.
Down at the level of statistics, those starts were actually the true indicators, not the outliers. Bradish has been totally dominant, in fact. In seven starts, he’s got a 2.62 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He’s striking out an equivalent of 12.84 batters per game, which would edge out Garrett Crochet and Tyler Glasnow for the MLB lead if he qualified. On top of that, he’s allowed a grand total of zero homers in 34.1 innings, the only MLB starter with 30 or more innings to remain blemish-free, and the first time since 1989 that an O’s starter has done it.
Often, great ERA’s come with inflated FIPs—“Yes, but how good is he pitching, really?” But Bradish’s FIP is even tinier: 1.77, indicative of how weak the contact has been. His BaseballSavant page is a sea of red. Expected ERA: 98th percentile. Expected batting average: same. Average exit velocity: 99th percentile. Ground ball percentage: 91st percentile.
Bradish has cut his hard-hit rate more than any starter, and upped his strikeout rate more than any pitcher but Jack Flaherty (sigh). It’s crazy to think he’s raising the ceiling he set for himself last season, when he was a Top 5 Cy Young finisher.
What can we say about the differences between the ’23 and ’24 Bradish?
He’s changed the shape of his pitches, especially the sinker, now his No. 1 pitch. An increase in active spin has helped increase its run value to +5. It’s his main putaway pitch, at 27.8%. His extension has increased across the board, too, although I don’t know why (a tweak in the delivery? Could warrant more investigation).
Secondly, the pitch mix is much different. This season, in decreasing order of frequency, it’s Sinker (37.5%) Slider (31%) Curveball (17.5%) Four-Seamer (13.5%). Last season, his mix was Slider (31.5%) Four-Seamer (22.4%) Sinker (20.7%) Curveball (17.3%) Changeup (8.3%). By becoming a four-pitch pitcher, he’s ridden himself of a pitch batters had an expected .511 slugging against. Also, by reducing his dependence on his four-seam fastball, he’s helped make it more effective.
Importantly, too, he’s doing this after starting the season late due to a sprained UCL. For now, the results give plenty of reason to feel good about his health. We’ll take this version of Bradish as long as it lasts.