Voting for the Hall of Fame is an incredible honor, and it’s something I and the others who have those votes spend a great deal of time on. I don’t think a day goes by when I don’t spend at least a few minutes thinking about next year’s vote.
This year, I voted for five players — Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner, who were elected, and Andruw Jones and Chase Utley, who weren’t.
I hear from readers complimenting or complaining about my choices, and there are a few constants.
One loyal reader has trouble with contemporary players because he thinks they don’t measure up to legends from the past. Others wonder why a player isn’t considered a Hall of Famer by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America one year and then is voted in years later.
Inexplicably, Suzuki was left off the ballot by a voter. So was Derek Jeter five years ago and, with the exception of Mariano Rivera, no one was elected unanimously, though many should have been.
It was easy to vote for Suzuki, and it would have been easy to vote for Cal Ripken Jr., Tony Gwynn, Rickey Henderson and Randy Johnson had I had a vote then.
But there aren’t many players like Suzuki, Ripken, Gwynn or Henderson who have 3,000 hits or won 300 games, as Johnson did.
In the near future, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols will be on the ballot, and they’ll be easy votes. Cabrera had more than 3,000 hits and 500 ho1me runs. Pujols had more than 3,000 hits and more than 700 home runs.
There aren’t any others who have those qualifications. The active leaders in hits are the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman (2,267) and the Astros’ Jose Altuve (2,232), and it’s far from a certainty they’ll reach 3,000 hits, though they’re locks for the Hall.
The Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton is the active home runs leader with 429, and even if hits 500, he might not make the Hall.
Several years back, Mike Trout was considered a certainty for those 3,000 hits and 500 home runs until injuries derailed that. While his early years will guarantee a spot in Cooperstown, he might not have those magic numbers.
Johnson was the last 300-game winner in 2009, and at nearly 42, Justin Verlander, the active wins leader who recently signed with the San Francisco Giants, is 38 wins short of 300.
Many outstanding players who lacked those big numbers weren’t voted in during their period of eligibility by the BBWAA: Steve Garvey, Bobby Grich, Tommy John, Kenny Lofton and Lou Whitaker. Their cases rest with Era Committees who elect players who didn’t get proper consideration.
Fortunately, the late Dick Allen and Dave Parker were elected last month by an Era Committee, and they’ll join Suzuki, Sabathia and Wagner in Cooperstown in July. There’s thought that it waters down the Hall of Fame, but if 1,500 players are in a Major League Baseball game each year, electing between three and five annually is a tiny percentage.
The game has changed, and voters recognize that. After Sabathia, Verlander (262 wins), Max Scherzer (216) and Clayton Kershaw (212) are automatic yes votes, but with the role of starting pitchers deemphasized, there might not be many more elected in the coming years.
Wagner is one of just nine relievers in the Hall of Fame, and it could be a while before others follow.
There has been a push to consider players who had excellent but shorter careers — Dustin Pedroia and David Wright, for example. I’m not there yet, but a dynamic prime like the one Sandy Koufax had in the 1960s was rightfully recognized.
Jones, for whom I’ve voted in each of the three elections I’ve been eligible for, won 10 Gold Gloves, but none after 30, and his career ended with five uninspiring seasons.
According to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffee’s JAWS, Utley’s stats compare favorably with Grich, Whitaker and Hall of Fame second basemen Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio and Ryne Sandberg. Utley, who finished behind only Suzuki, Sabathia, Wagner, Carlos Beltrán, and Jones in the voting, had 1,885 hits, and many voters don’t think that’s enough. He was a six-time All-Star, won the Silver Slugger four times and was a critical player on eight postseason teams.
Next year’s ballot doesn’t have any surefire first-time candidates, and voting for just Jones and Utley again seems unsatisfying. I’m not someone who’s likely to ever use the entire 10 slots on my ballot but adding Beltrán, whom I’ve penalized for his role in Houston’s electronic sign-stealing scandal in 2017, isn’t out of the question.
Nor is Andy Pettitte ,who won 256 games and 19 in the postseason. Pettitte’s stats are remarkably similar to Sabathia’s and Mike Mussina’s.
Maybe I’ll think about Jimmy Rollins, who played shortstop beside Utley on those great Phillies’ teams, or others.
The game changes, and how players are valued changes, and that’s why it’s never easy. But it’s always an honor to vote for the Hall of Fame.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.