My initial reaction to the Orioles’ trade for Trevor Rogers was probably akin to at least 85-90% of the fanbase when I first heard about it: Who?
I immediately punched his name into my google search and was frustrated that so many other Trevors were more famous (wish it was prime Trevor Bauer). Rogers’ stats are modest at best. His 2-9 record should be overlooked given the fact that he plays for Miami. He boasts a 4.53 ERA on the season and walks 2-3 batters a game and averages about 5 innings pitched per game.
These are all very middling stats and, given the fact that we gave up two talented young players that hadn’t been given consistent games in the majors, it was very worrisome from the beginning and smelled like what the Orioles always seem to do at the deadline: Acquire someone that was good 2-4 years ago and hope we can somehow reignite his former talent. And sacrificing the combined talent of Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby seemed like a high price.
But I decided to dive into Rogers’ stats a bit more and the more I saw of him, keeping the Orioles’ current pitching in mind, the more I saw that this was a “win now” trade and I aim to explain why.
To start, Rogers has had a very good July. He has a 3.38 ERA with 21 punchouts. He’s also put his team in a position to win every time and Miami is 3-2 in July when he starts despite him only being 1-1 on the month. Perhaps most impressively, he hasn’t given up more than two runs in all five of his starts.
A more negative look at Rogers’ stats will reveal that he averaged just below 5 innings pitched in July, which is really concerning for the Orioles given the state of our bullpen. But given Rogers’ inability to go deep in a start could mean he’s destined for the bullpen later in the year and during the playoffs.
One thing that needs a little research to figure out about Rogers is his almost airtight record in the first two innings of every game he’s started since July 3. In five starts, he hasn’t given up a single run in the first inning and has only given up one run in the second inning. The third through fifth innings are where he runs into trouble, but it’s pretty evenly distributed with three runs given up in the third, two in the fourth and two in the fifth.
Of course, these stats reflect July alone and he certainly struggled more earlier in the season. He had a woeful May with a 7.78 ERA, but with 10 starts in two months he had a 3.56 ERA in June and the aforementioned 3.38 ERA in July, indicating that his stock is trending upward.
What I believe Elias is trying to accomplish here is finding a fourth or fifth starting pitcher for the regular season and then a bullpen arm for the playoffs, in which case someone like Rogers is invaluable. Burnes, Rodriguez and Eflin are cemented regular season and playoff pitchers, and we have been able to get by with Povich/Suarez/Irvin for a while now that Kremer is occupying that fourth spot. Given Rogers’ great numbers in the first three innings, I can see him being part of a “long reliever bullpen day” featuring him and Suarez, bringing in our normal bullpen arms if it’s going well and Irvin or a struggling reliever if it is going badly.
Rogers also serves as a very serviceable long reliever in a playoff game should Rodriguez or Kremer falter. Rodriguez is probably on a pitch count and has shown signs of wear-and-tear, and Kremer is just coming back from his injury and struggling. One could also easily see Rogers being the outright fourth starter or a 2-3 inning starter before bringing in Burnes for the remainder of a rubber or elimination game.
Finally, I could very easily see Rogers being what we desperately need: A shutdown reliever that can go multiple innings. Him giving up 0 runs in the first inning in his first five starts and only 1 run in the second inning would tempt me to turn him into Felix Bautista (oh how I miss that man). While I know transitioning from a starting pitcher to a reliever isn’t totally seamless, I imagine it’s much smoother than going the other way. And Elias is savvy enough to see that potential where other owners may not.
Only time will tell, of course, but Norby and Stowers were unlikely to influence the current season and our World Series chances very much, though I’m sure they will be crucial players for Miami in the coming years. Both players are very talented and will likely break out with consistent games at their positions and in batting lineups. This was a risky trade when looking towards Baltimore’s future, but if we want the future to be now, I like the gamble.
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