Tyler O’Neill will look to help offset the loss of production from Anthony Santander. Can the power hitter stay healthy long enough to get the job done?
It took until the final month of 2024, but Mike Elias finally deemed a player worthy of a multi-year deal. Tyler O’Neill can technically opt out after this season, but Elias inked the outfielder to a three-year deal that could reach $49.5 million.
The O’Neill signing all but closed the door on the Orioles bringing back Anthony Santander. Santander later revealed that Baltimore made an offer even after signing O’Neill, but the All Star right fielder ultimately ended up in Toronto. The departure left the Orioles with a 44 homer and 102 RBI hole in their lineup.
O’Neill won’t be the only one tasked with making up for lost production. Baltimore expects a significant step forward from Heston Kjerstad, and the O’s hope to receive a little pop from Ramón Laureano. That being said, the Orioles expect O’Neill to carry the bulk of the load early in the season.
The 29-year-old’s best offensive year came in 2021. The former Cardinal slashed .286/.352/.560 over 138 games in St. Louis. He took a step back during his final two years with the Cardinals before slashing .241/.336/.511 with Boston last season. O’Neill tallied 31 homers, drove in 61 runs, and eclipsed 100 games played for only the second time in his career.
O’Neill posted a 131 wRC+ (weighted run creation adjusted to the league average) during his only season in Boston. As expected, that marked his second best total in the category after posting a 143 wRC+ in 2021. The former third round pick has proven two things over his seven year career. One, he’s allergic to sleeves. And two, the guy can produce when he stays on the field.
ZiPS projects O’Neill to replicate his run creation during his second season in the AL East. The pre-season projections have the righty posting a 132 wRC+ over 112 games this season. That number ranks second highest on Baltimore’s roster projections below only Gunnar Henderson.
- ZiPS: 112 Games, 24 HR, 66 RBI, .249 AVG, .333 OBP, .481 SLG, 132 wRC+
That number would rank a few points higher than Santander’s 129 wRC+ in 2024. How realistic is it?
The case for the over
The Orioles will look to keep O’Neill healthy this season, and they have enough depth that he will not need to start every day. Brandon Hyde has said that Heston Kjerstad will have every opportunity to carve out a role this season, and Laureano received slightly more than chump change at $4 million for one year.
Colton Cowser will return after being named the league’s top rookie by his peers, and Cedric Mullins will look to produce during a contract year. Hyde will likely play the matchups throughout the season which should help every player’s stat line.
O’Neill boasts a career .270/.376/.547 slash line against southpaws. He proved the power was still present last year in Boston, and one glance at the guy backs up the assertion. Just listen to the crack of the bat from yesterday’s game against the Tigers.
Sky’s Out, Ty’s Out pic.twitter.com/TLY5OIcyhU
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) February 27, 2025
The case for the under
It never feels fair to label a guy as injury prone, but the numbers don’t lie. O’Neill only played 72 games in 2023 after making 96 appearances the year prior. He suffered a pair of hamstring injuries in 2022 and missed significant time with a back strain during his final year in St. Louis. O’Neill missed time with a concussion, knee inflammation, and a leg infection during his stint in Boston.
There’s also the chance that he’s outplayed by his peers. The designated hitter spot is always crowded between Adley Rutschman, the two first basemen, and any other hot hitter. A strong season from Kjerstad could reduce O’Neill into a platoon role against lefties, and it’s unclear how a lack of reps while healthy could impact his performance.
The Orioles sought out O’Neill for a reason. The deal required less money than the Blue Jays gave to Santander, but it’s not like the guy came cheap. Baltimore made a significant commitment to a guy it feels can fill a hole in its lineup on a daily basis, and ZiPS expects O’Neill to accomplish that feat.