Hope you took an afternoon nap! The O’s and M’s are back for a late night Game 2 as Baltimore to stretch its win streak to five games.
Are the Orioles … good now? Last night they won again in Seattle, behind a confident seven one-run innings from Tomoyuki Sugano, unexpectedly their best starter right now.
But even that’s not a backhanded compliment: since May 20, the Orioles starting rotation has an unthinkable 2.40 ERA, the fourth best in all of baseball. What is going on, people??
Let’s see what happens tonight in what bids to be the weakest starter matchup of this series: lefty Cade Povich (1-4, 5.29 ERA) vs. right hander Emerson Hancock (2-2, 5.64 ERA).
Next to Charlie Morton, who’s rounding the corner over his last two starts, and Kyle Gibson, DFA’d after pitching like a man better off retiring, the Orioles’ weakest link in the starting rotation has been Cade Povich. In his first full season, the southpaw has a negative WAR (-0.3), an inflated ERA (5.29) and allows too many hits and walks (1.529 WHIP). On the other hand, a 4.46 FIP suggests he’s pitching better than meets the eye. Plus he’s the Orioles’ best starter at punching out hitters, with a 9.4 K/9 rate on the year.
Povich is like a box of chocolates, in that each time he pitches it feels like he’s either going to get bombed out for five-plus runs or hold the opposing team to one or fewer. Povich’s four starts in May were a mixed bag that way: he had two great starts against Boston and Washington but two clunkers versus Minnesota and St. Louis. So which Cade Povich will show up tonight? The suspense is what keeps us watching, right? (I wouldn’t be mad to be brilliantly boring this way, frankly.)
As for Emerson Hancock, it’s been up and down in this, the right hander’s third season. The 26-year-old pitched a clunker in his season debut against Detroit, was optioned to the minors a day later, then recalled April 17 as Seattle dealt with a rash of starter injuries. Since then, Hancock has one bad outing in eight starts: a seven-run dud against the Yankees on May 12. Otherwise his results have been mostly good, with two runs or fewer allowed in five of eight starts.
On the other hand, if we must nit-pick (and I guess we must), Hancock’s peripherals, other than exit velocity, aren’t good: he’s in the bottom 15% of pitchers in expected ERA, average, chase rate, whiffs and strikeouts. Maybe a lately competent Orioles offense can take advantage.
Orioles lineup
Jackson Holliday 2B
Adley Rutschman C
Gunnar Henderson SS
Ryan O’Hearn DH
Ramón Urías 3B
Colton Cowser CF
Coby Mayo 1B
Heston Kjerstad RF
Dylan Carlson LF
Mariners lineup
J.P. Crawford SS
Cal Raleigh DH
Julio Rodríguez CF
Randy Arozarena LF
Mitch Garver C
Dylan Moore RF
Donovan Solano 1B
Cole Young 2B
Ben Williamson 3B