The Orioles’ only competent pitcher, Tomoyuki Sugano, takes the mound as the O’s try not to embarrass themselves for the third game in a row.
There are plenty of reasons for doom and gloom surrounding this current Orioles team. The pitching is generally terrible. The players they brought in to hit lefties can’t hit lefties and those struggles are spreading across the team. And just about every member of the fanbase is willing to personally escort Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias out the door and lock it behind them.
The good news tonight is 1) the Orioles are not facing a left-handed pitcher and 2) the most competent member of their rotation is taking the mound in DC. For all the moves Elias and the front office got wrong in the offseason, signing Tomoyuki Sugano doesn’t appear to be one of them. The 35-year-old rookie from Japan has been far and away the Orioles best starter this year, posting a 3.43 ERA over 21.0 innings in four starts.
Sugano has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his outings and is coming off the best start any Orioles pitcher has had in 2025, throwing seven innings of two-run ball in a win over the Guardians last Thursday. Sugano is by no means dominant—his 9.2% K rate is bottom of the barrel for major league starters. He also gives up more hard contact than you’d like for a pitch-to-contact pitcher. But even with a less-than-flattering analytics profile, Sugano is effective at getting outs—more than most Orioles pitchers can say right now.
Sugano has turned to his splitter as his primary pitch so far in 2025, to mixed results. Used almost exclusively against lefties, opposing LHBs are hitting .280 on Sugano’s splitter. The contact against the splitter has generally been weak, though, with opposing lefties only slugging .320 with an average exit velocity just below 81 mph. Its a pitch that should prove effective against the Nats, whose lefty-heavy lineup hasn’t seen a lot of splitters and hasn’t hit particularly well against the ones they have seen.
Opposing Sugano is journeyman RHP Trevor Williams. The 32-year-old has spent the entirety of his 10-year career in the NL and has only faced the Orioles twice. Those two outings were dominant, however, as Williams has a 0.82 career ERA vs. Baltimore with 14 Ks in 11.0 IP. Last year in DC, Williams pitched five shutout innings with eight Ks in a 3-0 Nationals win.
Williams is a sweeper first right-hander, which may give the Orioles’ struggling infielders a chance to break out of their ruts. Jordan Westburg is .333 with a .833 slugging percentage against sweepers this season. Jackson Holliday is performing even better, hitting .333 while slugging 1.333.
Orioles lineup
- Cedric Mullins (L) CF
- Gunnar Henderson (L) SS
- Adley Rutschman (S) C
- Ryan O’Hearn (L) 1B
- Tyler O’Neill (R) RF
- Heston Kjerstad (L) LF
- Jordan Westburg (R) DH
- Jackson Holliday (L) 2B
- Ramón Urías (R) 3B
Starting pitcher: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (2-1, 3.43 ERA, 8 Ks)
Nationals lineup
- James Wood (L) LF
- Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B
- Luis García Jr. (L) 2B
- Keibert Ruiz (S) C
- Josh Bell (S) DH
- Dylan Crews (R) RF
- José Tena (L) 3B
- Jacob Young (R) CF
- Nasim Nuñez (S) SS
Starting pitcher: RHP Trevor Williams (1-2, 5.95 ERA, 16 Ks)