Now that we’ve had a taste of the Orioles being great, can they pull off another fantastic season?
After the Orioles rattled off an amazing 101 wins in the regular season and then an agonizing three losses to swiftly end their postseason hopes, the offseason has been a mix of hopefulness and trepidation for fans.
Anyone can be hopeful because, hey, they just won 101 games, every key contributor to that except for Félix Bautista is back, and they added Corbin Burnes on top of that. Anyone could feel trepidation at other times because Kyle Bradish and John Means are starting the season on the IL, and the Orioles are probably due for some regression overall.
Even with the Bradish setback, this could have been an uninterrupted stream of excitement going towards the regular season. The Burnes addition, the good vibes surrounding the pending sale – possibly finalized as soon as today – to David Rubenstein, and what until a few days ago was assumed to be the debut of Jackson Holliday to begin the season… that would have been a fun trio. It’s still fun without Holliday, but there’s a damper there.
All that there is to do now is hope for the best from the players who have made it to the 2024 Opening Day Orioles roster. If the recent past is an indication, this will not be the end-of-season roster, and the organization’s depth will be tested as injuries and poor play strike unexpectedly, or perhaps in the case of Tony Kemp, completely expectedly. Mike Elias might not even use a prospect to fill a midseason hole, like when he brought in Aaron Hicks last year. That one worked out OK, even if I didn’t possibly believe it could when it happened.
With all that in mind, what do you hope for from the Orioles this season? What do you think is going to happen when you add a dose of reality to your hopes? I polled some of the other Camden Chat writers on four quick things, and I’m interested in knowing what you think about these as well, so drop in to the comments and let us know:
- Your biggest hope for the 2024 team
- Your biggest concern that would stop the Orioles from repeating as AL East champs
- Your guess about the O’s final regular season record
- One wild prediction (big or small) that you think will happen with the Orioles this season
A general note about these predictions: I asked CC writers to submit them before we knew about Jackson Holliday starting in the minors. While most answers were sent to me after that, Alex’s and Tyler’s responses were made without that news in mind. No one except for me had the benefit of knowing about Kemp before responding.
Biggest hopes
Alex: A ring. How does that happen? I’m hoping healthy versions of John Means and Dillon Tate can make a difference.
Tyler: The organization is at the point where a World Series run should be a realistic goal every season for the next handful of years. Having said that, I would settle for a spot in the ALCS in 2024. The core is strong, they now have an ace, and no one else in the American League feels like a juggernaut. Plus, the depth of the organization makes it possible to reinforce the roster later in the summer, either through promotions or trades.
Paul: I think it’s high time to break that four-decade championship drought, don’t you?
Stacey: The World Series is the obvious answer, but my main hope is that this team proves that it was ok that last year’s team flamed out in the postseason. If they play well and get back to the playoffs and look like the team people think they are, I’ll be happy.
Andrea: The World Series! Why not dream big? Mike Elias & Co. wouldn’t have gone all in for Corbin Burnes if they didn’t think this was achievable. But failing that, winning the AL East. It would be a real coup if this young Orioles roster can do what no other AL East team has done since 2018 and go back-to-back.
John: Making it to the World Series. It feels like everyone in the American League (except maybe Houston) got worse and the Orioles definitively got better. The Orioles were the best team in the AL regular season last year but ran into a Texas-shaped buzzsaw in the playoffs last year. As long as the big IFs like injuries and random regression don’t go horribly wrong, an AL pennant feels like a realistic hope for this burgeoning bunch. Then once we get to the Fall Classic, anything can happen.
Mark: I’d like to see the post-Burnes portion of the starting rotation get to a point where we don’t have to spend the whole of the next offseason wondering who the Orioles will sign or trade for because things are already looking pretty good without any additions. That means excellence from at least one of Bradish and Rodriguez, stability from the other of that duo plus Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells, and probably a solid debut for one of Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott.
Biggest worries
John: Massive dropoff in the bullpen. Despite everything that went wrong in October, I truly believe the Orioles have enough starting pitching depth. What worries me is how Craig Kimbrel lives up to the mountainous task of replacing Bautista at the back end of the Orioles pen. The Orioles have had plenty of dominant relievers in their history, but none matched the dominance and intimidation we saw from Félix last year. Kimbrel is a 9-time All-Star and a good closer in his own right, but recently he’s been prone to volatility.
Mark: The Orioles end up sticking with certain veteran players who aren’t cutting the mustard for too long when there is a prospect ready to go in their place. I think they’ve already shown a tendency towards possibly doing this by how they treated Holliday in sending him to the minors to begin the season. Heck, as of yesterday, it looks like that roster spot is going to freaking Tony Kemp, which is even worse than it going to Tyler Nevin.
Andrea: This is the result of long years of trauma as an Orioles fan, but I can never not make my worst fears about starting pitching. Worst-case scenario: Burnes continues to lose effectiveness and is “just OK,” Bradish comes back after a while, pitches badly, and then gets shut down for the year, and Means is not himself post-Tommy John. Then again—this is me being a born optimist, in addition to a scarred O’s fan—last year’s rotation was also “just OK,” especially in the first half of the season, and you see how that went.
Stacey: The starting pitching makes me nervous. Everyone is rightly excited about Burnes but my brain can’t comprehend having a pitcher like that so I’m worried he won’t actually be that good. Bradish’s injury is an unknown, Rodriguez hasn’t been good for a full season yet, and the rest of them are…well, you know.
Paul: The starting pitching depth, which looked like a strength before camp, could suddenly look pretty shaky if Bradish’s injury turns into a season-ender, if Cole Irvin doesn’t improve from last year, if Grayson takes a step back and/or Burnes looks like just a solid innings-eater rather than a true ace.
Tyler: I’m worried about the bullpen. Kimbrel will probably be fine, but he’s not Bautista. Dillon Tate missed a whole year, and it feels like they are going to depend on him a lot anyway. I wouldn’t be surprised if any or all of Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez crashed back to earth. There just aren’t many guarantees. Hopefully the trade for Burnes was the beginning of Elias showing that he isn’t afraid of trading younger players in order to get better right now.
Alex: Kimbrel and/or Cano struggle in late innings. Can the Orioles survive without Bautista?
Orioles record predictions
A year ago, Camden Chat writers all believed that the Orioles would at least not go back to having a losing team in 2023, but no one guessed anything close to the excellent 101-61 record. Our most optimistic predicter was Alex, at 90-72.
Alex: 95-67
Paul: 89-73
John: 98-64
Mark: 88-74
Stacey: 92-70
Andrea: 99-63
Tyler: 94-68
What the computers say
FanGraphs: 85-77 (last year: 78-84)
PECOTA: 87-75 (last year: 75-87)
A random sportsbook that operates in Maryland: Over/under 90.5 wins (last year: 76.5)
Wild guesses
Bonus points to Stacey, whose wild guess from a year ago was that Bradish would be the best Orioles starter by season’s end. She’s on a two-year streak of successful guesses. Points also to Tyler and Andrea, who each guessed that the Orioles would have multiple All-Stars last year.
Tyler: Jackson Holliday will not be the Orioles’ highest finisher in Rookie of the Year voting. There is just so much competition within the organization, including Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, two players that have already spent time in the big leagues and could be better positioned at this point in their careers. That doesn’t mean Holliday struggles all that much though. He’s going to be good in 2024! But it could take something great to edge out his talented teammates.
Andrea: Holliday defies the Orioles’ petty attempts at roster manipulation and wins Rookie of the Year. Am I going out on a limb here? No. Still worth saying? Hopefully! Bonus guess: Rodriguez leads the AL in strikeouts.
Stacey: Kremer won’t last the whole season in the rotation.
Mark: Kimbrel blows the save and takes the loss in his first save chance of the season.
John: The Orioles finally push their chips to the center of the table with a trade at the deadline. The Orioles have reached a point that is inevitable when you draft as well as Mike Elias has—you have too many great prospects and not enough places to play them. After making the offseason trade for Burnes, another big trade should be on the horizon. It could be a trade for another starter, another back-end reliever or even a right-handed power hitter. Whatever Elias & Co. identify as the most pressing need, I expect them to aggressively try and fill that need come July.
Alex: Small: Gunnar Henderson hits for the cycle. Big: Burnes wins the Cy Young Award.
Paul: The Orioles will make the most significant acquisition of any MLB team at the trade deadline. (Just don’t ask me which player it is.)
**
So that’s what all of us think. How about you? Put your bold guesses below in the comments so that when they come true, you can point everyone back here to when you called it all the way before the season even began. The most successful prediction from last year’s commenters:
- John Means has a setback and doesn’t debut until September. (jakenbake)
- Honorable mention to the several folks who predicted the Orioles would get Burnes. You were right in the long run, if not for the 2023 season.