Can the Orioles do better than last year by making and actually advancing in the postseason?
The Orioles got everybody’s hopes way up by racing to a 101-61 record two years ago, kept our hopes up by playing well in the first half of last season, then disappointed with a .500 record in the second half and a swift postseason exit. The disappointment continued through the offseason when, despite spending a heck of a lot of money, the team didn’t actually add a single high-end free agent or anyone who is guaranteed to help the team beyond 2025.
What does it all add up to? You can be optimistic if you want, because the Orioles have a strong position player core, as long as Adley Rutschman goes back to looking like the best version of himself, Jackson Holliday continues on the development trajectory he suggested from the last two months of last year, and other reasonable but not guaranteed outcomes play out.
Or you could be pessimistic because the starting rotation is very old, the bullpen might have nobody good except for Félix Bautista, and Gunnar Henderson is starting the season on the injured list due to an injury that’s taken more than a month to heal. All this while the Yankees made big splashes, both in free agency and trade, the Red Sox made a big trade for an ace, the Blue Jays made some bigger moves that might work out, and so on.
With all that in mind, what do you hope for from the Orioles this season? What do you think is going to happen when you add a dose of reality to your hopes? I polled some of the other Camden Chat writers on four quick things, and I’m interested in knowing what you think about these as well, so drop in to the comments and let us know:
- Your biggest hope for the 2025 team
- Your biggest concern that would stop the Orioles from making/advancing in the playoffs
- Your guess about the O’s final regular season record
- A wild prediction (big or small) that you think will happen
Biggest hopes
Andrea: Do starting rotations need “an ace”? Surely not. But I’m still hoping that someone in this rather motley crew of starters has a career-defining season. Maybe that will be Zach Eflin. I also really hope that Kyle Bradish comes back and snaps into his 2023 form by mid-summer, and that Grayson Rodriguez’s injury is not a long-term one.
Stacey: The short answer is that I hope they win the World Series. It’s the biggest hope you can have. But practically speaking, I just hope they don’t take a step back and miss the playoffs. After watching this team struggle through the second half and look lifeless in the playoffs again, I was down on them but ready to see what happened in the off-season. Now the off-season is over and the rotation looks worse than last year while the offense looks mostly the same, minus the guy who hit 44 dingers. I don’t like to feel pessimistic before the season even starts, but there you go.
John: Given the level of talent the O’s have amassed, the hope every year should be a World Series appearance. That being said, winning a playoff series would also feel like progress and a mostly successful season.
Mark: I’m on the Jackson Holliday hype train. Nothing good can come from this. Nothing good ever does when I believe in anything about the Orioles. Nonetheless, I really believe that Holliday had started to figure it out by the end of last season and that he’s going to carry that forward into the kind of season that his fellow young Jacksons – Milwaukee’s Chourio and San Diego’s Merrill – had a year ago.
Alex: The Orioles really need to advance in the playoffs. A World Series feels within the realm of possibility, but the team must show some type of progress in the postseason.
Paul: I will continue to hope for the Orioles to play in a World Series, and maybe this is the season it will actually happen. It’s been 42 years. They sure are taking their sweet time.
Tyler: The offense becomes a bona fide juggernaut up and down the order. They have the potential at every position to be above-average, and in some cases elite, on offense. That’s pretty rare, and it could be all they need to win a relatively thin American League, even if the pitching staff is closer to meh than marvelous.
Biggest concern
Paul: Where to start? I’m concerned the O’s offense might not break out of last year’s second-half stupor, or that the bullpen will struggle if Félix Bautista isn’t back to his previous form, or that letting their ace walk away without acquiring another one will prove to be a bad idea. Right now my biggest concern is that Gunnar Henderson’s intercostal strain will be the kind that lingers all season long and hurts his production, even if it doesn’t require a lengthy IL stint.
John: It’s not even April, and the injury-prone nature of this roster is already becoming alarming. Your best player in Gunnar Henderson is out for Opening Day. Grayson Rodriguez is dealing with a significant injury for the third time in four years. Your marquee offseason addition in Tyler O’Neill has a lengthy injury history. This team can win a lot, but it already has a small margin error and further injuries could seriously derail the season.
Mark: The starting rotation is so freaking old. That was true even before they went and signed Kyle Gibson within the final week of spring training. IF Tomoyuki Sugano makes a fantastic transition to MLB late in his career, IF the clock doesn’t run out terribly on Charlie Morton (who is one day younger than me, and I’m way too old to still have that be true about Orioles), and if Gibson can contribute roughly how he did for the 2024 Cardinals, maybe it could work. But we could get to June and things could be going terribly with the rotation and it won’t be much of a mystery why.
Stacey: It’s this rotation. My gut tells me that Grayson Rodriguez will be out for a long time. I sure hope it’s wrong. Then you’ve got Zach Eflin, who belongs in a big-league rotation, but not near the front. Cade Povich had a 5.20 ERA last year and I’m hopeful for him but it’s no sure thing. Dean Kremer just keeps plugging along with mixed results. Top that off with the trio of olds that Mike Elias brought in over the off-season and it’s just very hard to be confident.
Andrea: I get super tired of saying “the starting rotation,” but doesn’t it always feel like it? I don’t like to imagine who’ll be starting games for us if any of Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Dean Kremer, Kyle Gibson or Cade Povich has to miss extended time.
Tyler: Injuries to key position players. You could say this for any team, but the Orioles seem more prone to it than others. Gunnar has an injury that tends to linger. Something happened to Adley last year that they won’t tell us. Westburg missed a lot of time in 2024. Tyler O’Neill has a long history of IL stints. The front office has done a nice job of building depth, but it can deteriorate quickly, and there are no suitable replacements for someone like Gunnar. For a team built on scoring runs, they can’t afford to fall off like they did in the second half last season.
Alex: Starting pitching feels like the obvious choice. A long term injury to Grayson Rodriguez would put the Orioles more than one deadline acquisition away from a WS run.
Orioles record predictions
The Orioles finished with a 91-71 record a year ago. No one predicted that exactly, but Stacey came the closest with a 92-win prediction. Or if you want to use Price is Right rules (closest without going over), Paul’s 89-win pick takes the crown.
Tyler: 93-69
Paul: 81-81
Alex: 93-69
John: 95-66
Stacey: 82-80
Andrea: 90-72
Mark: 86-76
What the computers say
- FanGraphs: 83-79
- PECOTA: 87-75
- A random sportsbook that operates in Maryland: Over/under 86.5 wins (last year: 90.5)
Wild guesses
Props to Tyler for making the only correct wild guess last year: That Jackson Holliday wouldn’t be the highest Orioles finisher in Rookie of the Year voting. Colton Cowser ended up as the runner-up and should have won.
Stacey: I think Adley Rutschman is going to have an incredible season. It’s probably not that wild to predict that a former number-one pick who already has two 5+ fWAR seasons is going to have a big year, but I think a lot of people are down on him after his performance last season. It’s easy to see why, watching him play in the second half last year was painful. He looked hopeless. Whatever happened with him last year, I am confident that he’ll be back with a vengeance in 2025. I predict a top-10 MVP finish and Silver Slugger.
Tyler: Mike Elias pulls off a BIG trade for a starting pitcher near the deadline. The best fit to me is a move for Sandy Alcantara from the Marlins. It won’t be cheap, but it makes a lot of sense. He’s got multiple affordable years left on his contract. The teams have recently made deals. They are in the NL, which makes a possible flub easier to swallow. It just feels like it’s getting to a point where guys like Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo are more valuable to the Orioles as a trade package than major league players, so let’s make a move! But wait until you feel comfortable that Alcantara is totally healthy.
Andrea: Adley Rutschman will finish in the Top 10 vote-getters for AL MVP.
Mark: I’m all in on the Holliday hype and I’m sticking to it. By season’s end, he will have made the most starts as the Orioles leadoff hitter.
Paul: This will be Brandon Hyde’s final season as Orioles manager.
Alex: Samuel Basallo spends more time on the Orioles active roster than Coby Mayo.
John: Jackson Holliday leads the O’s in steals and Adley hits 30+ HRs.
Some good guesses from our commenters a year ago:
- Gunnar has a 7 WAR season (CamdenWarehouse)
- Actual action at the trade deadline (GrapeNutIceCream)