The power-hitting prospect is back in Baltimore for the second time this year, but it remains unclear how he fits on the current roster.
For the second time this year, Heston Kjerstad has been recalled to join the Orioles’ big league roster. While the O’s have suffered an injury crisis on the pitching side, little has changed with their position players. That makes the Kjerstad call rather hard to analyze. Is he coming up to play? Or ride the bench? Either way, it feels like an inflection point for his future with the Orioles, who have holes to fill and a month until the trade deadline arrives.
Drafted second overall in 2020, Kjerstad has had a unique career. A bout with myocarditis pushed his professional debut until 2022. But since then, he has taken off, playing at four O’s affiliates in less than two years and making it all the way to Baltimore in late 2023. Back in the spring, he seemed like a favorite to make the team’s Opening Day roster, but an early slump led to a meager .580 OPS in Grapefruit League play and earned him a ticket back to Norfolk instead.
Kjerstad’s production in Triple-A this season has been stellar. Over 55 games he owns a .300/.390/.601 line with 16 home runs, 14 doubles, a 12.5% walk rate, and a 26.3% strikeout rate. June has been his worst month—.811 OPS, three home runs, 26 strikeouts, eight walks—but nothing to discourage a promotion like this.
The problem for Kjerstad does not seem to be his work with the bat, but rather the crowded outfield picture in Baltimore. Kjerstad was on the big league roster for three weeks back in late April/early May, but played in just seven games (starting four times) before he was sent back down. O’s manager Brandon Hyde explained at the time that due to the team’s outfield configuration, Kjerstad had a tough time getting into games. The organization wanted to get him more consistent playing time, thus the demotion.
It’s almost identical to how the team has handled fellow outfielder Kyle Stowers this season. The 26-year-old Stowers was the one that took Kjerstad’s spot on the major league roster back in mid-May, and he was also the makeweight for Kjerstad to return to Baltimore here. Stowers has been unable to find playing time either, typically relegated to late-game substitute roles. The difference between Kjerstad and Stowers is that one was a top draft pick with a history of landing on “Top 100” prospect lists, and the other is universally viewed as a more fringy talent. The Orioles’ decision to handle them similarly is notable.
So, will anything be different this time around? Well, let’s look at the roster.
The veteran outfielders have solidified their places with recent upticks in performance. Cedric Mullins continues to offer sublime defense and has seen his production at the plate turn around in June (.271/.318/.758). Anthony Santander has been MLB’s premier power hitter in June (11 home runs) and owns a 1.015 OPS this month. Austin Hays is even crushing baseballs to the tune of a 1.161 OPS in June.
Colton Cowser has gone the other way. His 1.004 OPS in April has given way to a .580 OPS in May and a .587 OPS so far in June. But he does offer athleticism and defense that Kjerstad cannot match. Cowser is capable of playing center field and possesses one of the strongest throwing arms in MLB. The edge in defense does not make Cowser unimpeachable, but it does mean Kjerstad would need to be head and shoulders above him at the plate to eat into his playing time. Maybe he is, but the Orioles are yet to give him the room to prove it.
Kjerstad will probably play some first base or DH in his career, but he won’t find many opportunities to do so with the Orioles in the short term. Ryan Mountcastle has a shot to be the AL’s starting first baseman in next month’s all-star game and has been remarkably consistent this season. Ryan O’Hearn has managed to duplicate his out-of-nowhere performance from a season ago to post a .808 OPS and might be swinging better than ever this month. And don’t forget about Santander’s regular stints at DH, particularly against left-handed pitching. There just isn’t much room for another bat in the mix.
The entire situation could change in the offseason. Santander is due to hit free agency this winter, and it’s possible he prices himself out of what the Orioles feel comfortable spending on a player that looks more and more like a DH-only in future seasons. Kjerstad could slide right into his playing time in right field. And that doesn’t even take into consideration a potential trade of Hays—or any one else for that matter—to free up additional innings. In that light, it’s important to keep Kjerstad motivated and involved at the big league level.
But while it is important to not be short-sighted, the Orioles would be remiss to not put their absolute best foot forward in 2024. This entire roster is far too good to simply roll into an overarching theory of team building rather than doing everything you can to win the franchise’s first World Series in 40+ years. Leaving a talent like Kjerstad on the bench for occasional playing time while your pitching staff treads water would feel like malpractice, regardless of how good he may one day be.
Of course, Kjerstad is not the only player in the organization that could be the center of a beefy package to land an impact pitcher (or two) at the deadline. Guys like Connor Norby, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and others could also be in the mix there. But Kjerstad seems to offer the right mix of high upside and lack of opportunity that could make him expendable for the O’s, similar to how Joey Ortiz was the odd man out of the infield with Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and (eventually) Jackson Holliday the preferred options there.
This is all speculation, of course, which will make it interesting to monitor how the Orioles utilize Kjerstad in the next five weeks leading up the trade deadline. If he gets himself into Hyde’s lineups more often and starts to produce, it’s tough to see the team moving on from him. But if he continues to only be a bit a player—and the pitching staff continues to limp along—the more and more it feels like a move will be coming.
As always, Mike Elias and his front office will search for value. Kjerstad could be traded, but it won’t be for a subpar rental. It would need to be in exchange for an immense talent that helps the Orioles in future seasons. That would be exciting! And if Elias doesn’t see value in any potential trades with Kjerstad, then he is probably going to play a whole bunch in Baltimore next year. That would also be exciting!
Kjerstad alone will not dictate the ultimate outcome of the 2024 Orioles, but he will be a key figure over the next month that could inform us of the front office’s thinking, both short and long term.