The Tigers’ left-hander has been heavily rumored as a potential O’s trade target before next week’s trade deadline.
The trade deadline is only a week away and all of Birdland is still waiting for Mike Elias & Co. to pull the trigger on a starting pitcher trade. However, just because the Orioles have yet to consummate a trade doesn’t mean the rumor mills haven’t been turning out reports about moves that interest Baltimore. The one that has gained the most traction is the report from Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated that the Orioles and Dodgers are interested in Tigers’ All-Star Tarik Skubal.
It doesn’t take a lot of research to understand why the O’s are looking at acquiring Detroit’s ace. Skubal leads all MLB pitchers with a 4.6 bWAR, has a 2.41 ERA that is just below Corbin Burnes for the best in baseball and sits Top 10 in WHIP, strikeouts and K/9. The 27-year-old lefty is also getting better the deeper he gets into his MLB career, as he’s improved his ERA in every season of his five-year career.
There are reasonable doubts about how available Skubal will be at this deadline. The Tigers are a young team trying to build around a core of hitters like Riley Greene, Colt Keith, Matt Vierling and former No.1 overall pick Spenser Torkelson. Skubal is undoubtedly the crown jewel of this Detroit squad as a 27-year-old showing the ability to be a true ace, who is also under team control for another two seasons. It’s not a stretch to say that, if Detroit even listens to offers for Skubal, he’ll be the most expensive player moved during this trade deadline.
For Baltimore, Skubal offers not only a chance to strengthen their rotation for a playoff run but also to reshape the makeup and trajectory of this pitching staff. We know Corbin Burnes will get the ball for any potential Game 1 come October. Adding Skubal to the rotation behind Burnes would allow the Orioles to become a matchup nightmare in the postseason. Say the O’s keep home-field advantage and face off with the Yankees in the ALDS. Baltimore could throw Grayson Rodriguez—who’s consistently better at home than on the road—in Game 2 and give Skubal the start in Yankees stadium.
The acquisition of Skubal would also drastically reshape the future of this rotation. If the Orioles can resign Burnes in the offseason, they’d head into the 2025 season with the modern-day version of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. If Burnes decides to go elsewhere, Skubal is his insurance policy, ensuring that the Orioles still have one of the best pitchers in the AL to build around.
The former 9th-round pick out of Seattle University would also give this rotation a completely different profile compared to the O’s current starters. We’ve seen how the Great Wall of Baltimore has influenced the front office to construct a left-handed heavy lineup. The extension of that strategy would also see the Orioles load up on left-handed pitching.
However, their attempts at adding southpaws to the rotation have so far been more frustrating than fruitful. Former All-Star John Means can’t stay healthy. Cole Irvin has been wildly inconsistent as a starter in Baltimore and rookie Cade Povich didn’t look entirely ready for the big leagues in his seven-start cameo. Combine a park that is one of the 10 hardest against right-handed hitters with Skubal’s .181 BAA vs. lefties and you have a recipe for a special marriage between the Orioles and Skubal.
If the Tigers acquiesce to moving their ace, the Orioles should be in the best position to acquire him. Detroit is in desperate need of offensive help. They currently rank 25th in batting average, 27th in OPS+ and 28th in on-base percentage. Despite having six starters under the age of 30, the Tigers will undoubtedly be looking for talent that is major-league-ready in a potential Skubal trade. For that reason, names like Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers would likely be included as complementary pieces with Coby Mayo or Heston Kjerstad as the centerpiece.
The reason: For a Skubal trade to make sense from Detroit’s perspective, the Tigers need multiple potential All-Star position players who are close to the majors.
In that regard, the Orioles’ present depth is unsurpassed.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 22, 2024
The prospect cost of acquiring Skubal would undoubtedly be a steep price to pay. And yet, there isn’t really another starter who approaches his level of production without having a significant drawback. The Orioles have also been connected in trade rumors with White Sox starters Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde.
Crochet was also an All-Star this year and is likewise under team control through the 2026 season. However, Crochet had Tommy John surgery in 2022 and has pitched more innings this season than the rest of his career combined—meaning there’s big concern about arm fatigue down the stretch. After spending the 2023 season in Korea, Fedde is in the midst of a career year with a 2.99 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. But as a pitcher who had a 5.41 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 100+ games with the Nationals, there’s certainly a worry that he can regress to his career mean at any time.
That’s not to say that Skubal doesn’t come with his own concerns. He had flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022, missing the last two months of the season and the first three months of last season. His previous career high in innings came in 2021 with 149.1, and he’s currently on pace to throw 180+ innings this season—meaning there are some fatigue concerns with Skubal as well.
It’s entirely possible that, over the next week, either the Tigers decide their best player isn’t for sale or the Orioles decide the price is simply too high to pay. The fact of the matter is the O’s need a starter if they’re going to feel comfortable about how their rotation stacks up in October. Skubal is undoubtedly the best player that might be available, and acquiring him would be a serious statement of intent for this Baltimore team.