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What the 2026 Orioles Rotation Could Look Like

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The Baltimore Orioles continue to spiral downwards towards a full elimination from the postseason. The team currently sits at a 60-75 record while nearly 20 games out of first place in the American League East. Several aspects of the team failed this year, but none more destructive than the rotation.

Most of the team’s starters held an ERA over four and a WHIP over 1.250. None of their starters registered a strikeout rate over 10 per nine innings. At the same time, their home run rate exploded well over one per nine, surrendering the second-most home runs behind the Colorado Rockies.

It’s time for the team to close up shop on 2025 and pivot to next year. The question is: What could a successful Orioles rotation look like for a comeback season in 2026?

Jul 31, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (30) throws against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

Previewing a Potential 2026 Orioles Rotation

Trevor Rogers is the Current Ace

2025 Stats: 13 starts (one complete game); 7-2; 83.1 IP; 1.40 ERA; 50 H and 19 BB (0.828 WHIP); 2 HR; 76 K; .171/.222/.447 opposing slash line

Rogers is the current ace on the Orioles, and no one comes close to topping him. It’s more impressive when you understand this comes on the heels of an offseason knee injury that derailed the first half of his season. The 27-year-old has rebuilt himself with the team and is in a prime position to lead their rotation next year.

Every single facet of his game improved, from his strikeout rate to walk rate to home runs surrendered. In fact, his numbers are even better than his 2021 campaign, when he was runner-up for National League Rookie of the Year. The Orioles already have a burgeoning ace in their rotation.

The secret to his success is how effective his offspeed pitches are, with a whiff rate above 30% in all outside corners. All of the pitches Rogers has in his arsenal went from a negative run value to a positive value. His sinker is the only pitch registering above a .200 batting average and under a 10% whiff rate. Otherwise, his movement on his fastball and changeup is earning him effective outs.

Injuries Killed the Orioles’ Staff This Year

No team’s injured list has worked harder than the Orioles this year, seeing over two dozen different players placed on it. Grayson Rodriguez didn’t see the mound this year, and neither did Tyler Wells. Kyle Bradish just came back from the injured list, but it’s far too late for him to have any impact.

Rodriguez was supposed to be the team’s original ace this year, seeing some improvement from his 2023 campaign. In 2024, he had a whiff rate in the 80th percentile at 30%, with a strikeout rate in the top quarter of all qualifying pitchers. He did struggle with hard-hit contact and inducing ground balls, but it was on track to be fixed.

Wells, on the other hand, hasn’t pitched consistently since 2023. He had a consistently low walk rate and an average chase/whiff percentage, but consistently got tagged with good contact. Bradish is a statistically better pitcher, holding a 6.9% walk rate and inducing a 50% ground ball rate. His chase and whiff rates are low, but he still bills out as an effective player.

All three of these pitchers returning to the rotation next year will be important for the Orioles. Cade Povich, who has been thrust into the rotation this year, can be protected in the fifth slot behind the above. It’s unlikely the team brings back Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, or even Tomoyuki Sugano if rehabs for them go well.

A Free Agent Signing in the Cards?

2026 will be a decent year for the pitching free agent class. Players including Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Shota Imanaga, and Framber Valdez could hit the market at the end of the season. There’s already been discussion that the Orioles will look hard at the market and get at least one pitcher to bolster the 2026 rotation.

Current expert analysis suggests either Cease or Valdez could be targeted by the Orioles in free agency. Cease is an established pitcher, placing fourth in National League Cy Young voting last year, but has struggled with walks and home runs throughout his career. He holds an 11 strikeouts per nine rate, but his fielding independent pitching is a bit elevated.

Valdez, on the other hand, could be the likely target for two reasons. First, the Orioles could benefit from a second lefty starter to help balance their rotation with a right-left format. The three aforementioned rehabbing pitchers are all right-handed, while Rogers is left-handed.

Second, Valdez is the statistically better pitcher than Cease. While his strikeout rate is lower, his home run rate per nine leads the major leagues among qualified starting pitchers. He also holds a lower walk and FIP rate than Cease. He does lead the league in wild pitches, but his 60% groundball rate is hard to ignore.

 

Main Photo Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

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