The 26-year-old lefty slugger has yet to reach his potential, but this year would be an excellent time to do it.
For most of the offseason, the story coming out of the Orioles’ outfield was whether they’d retain Anthony Santander, who, in a walk year, had exploded for 44 home runs. Predictably, the switch-hitting slugger signed elsewhere for more money than the Orioles wanted to deal with (five years, $92 million), leaving the Orioles with a hole to fill.
Not that they don’t have options. They signed the impressively built Tyler O’Neill back in December to a three-year deal, to help offset the loss of Santander hitting from the right side. The next month, another outfielder and former Cardinal, Dylan Carlson, signed a one-year, $900,000 deal. And in early February, they brought on seven-year veteran Ramón Laureano on a deal worth $4 million. This is in addition, of course, to the returning Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad.
Again, the Orioles seem to be prizing the platoon approach in drawing up lineups. Again, they’re going for quantity, maybe not instead of quality, but “in the interest of unearthing some undervalued player of” quality. Don’t forget that last year, all of thirteen different players suited up in the outfield.
What does all this mean for the 26-year-old Heston Kjerstad? Only that this spring will be extremely important for him. Last year was bittersweet for the lefty outfielder with the sweet swing. After starting the year in Triple-A Norfolk, Kjerstad hit .222/.417/.222 with the big-league club in May, then got sent down again, a victim of the outfield crowding and limited playing time.
Called up again in June, “Silent J” started heating up, putting together a gigantic .438/.550/.938/1.488 slash line in twenty plate appearances (including his first career grand slam) before a really unfortunate turn of events: the rookie took a fastball to the helmet on July 12, suffered a concussion, and didn’t make it back to the lineup until September 15. He limped to the finish line after that, posting just a .233 average and .636 OPS in his last eleven games.
We know that Kjerstad has had a lot of bad luck, injury-wise. In addition to last season’s concussion, he missed most of the 2021 season with COVID-related myocarditis. That helps to explain why, at 26, he’s got just 52 games under his belt. Safe to say, 2025 is a critical one for him.
Here’s what the two big projection systems – ZiPS and PECOTA – are expecting from Kjerstad in the 2025 season with the Orioles.
- ZiPS: .262 BA, .335 OBP, .433 SLG, 121 WRC+, 7.5% BB/9, 15 HR in 111 G
- Steamer: .247 BA, .317 OBP, .417 SLG, 111 WRC+, 7.7% BB/9, 12 HR in 83 G
These aren’t bad numbers. In fact, in terms of WRC+, one of Fangraphs’ favorite stats, Kjerstad is projected to be the Orioles’ fifth most productive player after Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, O’Neill and Cowser. Neither set of projections depends on Kjerstad suddenly bursting out, either: they look similar to what he did in 2024 overall (.253/.351/.394, 116 WRC+). He just has to stay on the field.
The over/under discussion below involves the ZiPS projection numbers, as that is the projection that is freely available to the public.
The case for the over
Perhaps the most important number here is games played. If Kjerstad ends up playing 111 games, then it will mean he’s developed into the Orioles’ best option in the corner outfield. That, in itself, would be a huge success.
It’s not a crazy amount of output they’re predicting, either. This is a guy who averaged a .343/.421/.590/1.011 slashline in three seasons at Arkansas, and a .304/.387/.524/.911 line in parts of three minor league seasons. In 2023, in 122 games between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, Kjerstad racked up 58 extra-base hits. Last year, he had six in 39 games, despite the up-and-down season. He’s certainly got the potential.
The case for the under
The case for the under is basically as follows: Kjerstad starts the spring cold enough that the team buries him on the depth chart and eventually deals him away, the way they did with Kyle Stowers.
Or he gets hurt again.
Or, like fellow rookies Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday, Kjerstad goes through an extended slump that also hurts his playing time. Remember, the Orioles gave Holliday, the anointed future occupant at second, a long leash last season, and he still needed time in the minors. For Kjerstad, given his own relative inexperience at the MLB level, and the outfield crowding, he won’t have that kind of margin of error.
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Essentially, my feeling is that if Kjerstad stays on the field, he has a chance. As a Razorback, Kjerstad was an All-SEC in each of his first two seasons, and was certainly track for it in 2020, when he hit .448 with six home runs and 20 RBIs in sixteen games before the season was supended. He took his team to the NCAA Championship in 2018, where they lost to, of all opponents, the Oregon State Beavers, led by catcher Adley Rutschman, and he was named to the All-Tournament team.
It’s been an unfortunate set of circumstances that have kept Heston Kjerstad from flexing his innate baseball talents, but 2025 could be the year he puts it all together. What do you think?
Tomorrow: Albert Suarez