The Orioles have been one of the best HR-hitting teams all season. Recent offensive shortcomings raise the question of whether the homer-happy O’s can turn those long balls into postseason wins.
It’s no secret that the Orioles’ offense has been a major source of frustration in this second half.
As Camden Chat’s Tyler Young detailed yesterday, we’ve seen stars like Adley Rutschman and Ryan O’Hearn go through major slumps while other stars find themselves on the IL. All of that has added up to major offensive inconsistency as the Orioles’ batting average (.253 to .243), slugging percentage (.452 to .412) and strikeout percentage (23.4% to 25.7%) have all trended in the wrong direction since the All-Star break.
While injuries and cold streaks have certainly played a part in Baltimore’s downturn in offensive potency, you have to question whether the Orioles’ approach is playing a part. On Saturday, Gunnar Henderson thought he had a three-run home run to give the Orioles the lead—only for Jose Siri to make an improbable, leaping, home-run-robbing catch. After suffering that disappointment, the O’s offense only put up two more hits the rest of the game in a 7-1 loss to Tampa.
That play from Siri is the perfect metaphor for the ups and downs of this Orioles lineup. If the Rays CF doesn’t make that catch, the O’s are up 3-2 and in a good position to go on and win the game. Instead, the Rays remained in control and the loss of the HR doomed the O’s offense to a day where they’d only score one run (on a Cedric Mullins solo blast).
The home run has been a huge part of the Orioles’ success this season. For much of the year, they’ve led the league in long balls, and with 212 HRs, they currently sit three behind the Yankees for the MLB lead. Gunnar Henderson already set the Orioles’ franchise record for most HRs by a SS in a season. Anthony Santander just became the eighth switch hitter in MLB history with a 40+ HR season.
The fact that the home run is a major part of the Orioles’ offense isn’t inherently bad, either. Over the last five full seasons, 80% of the teams that finished as one of MLB’s five-best home run hitters has made the playoffs. In 2024, the five teams with the most home runs are all currently in playoff positions.
What is worrying is the Orioles’ over-reliance on the long ball. In 2024, 49% of the O’s runs have come via the home run. Among teams currently in playoff positions, only the Yankees (50.4%) score a higher percentage of their runs via homers.
The Orioles aren’t alone either as a home run-happy team that is struggling in the second half of the season. Of teams currently in playoff positions, only the Orioles, Yankees, Braves and Mets score more than 45% of their runs with the long ball. Those four teams have combined for a second-half winning of .540. If you remove the Mets, and leave the top three most home run-reliant teams, that winning percentage drops to .518.
MLB’s other playoff-bound franchises are much less home run-dependent and have in turn been much more consistent throughout the second half. Combined, the less homer-happy playoff teams have a .585 winning percentage after the Midsummer Classic. Of those teams, only the Phillies and Guardians have a losing record in the second half, while the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Padres have all won 30+ games since mid-July.
While we’ve seen this Orioles offensive formula yield maddening results these last couple of months, that doesn’t mean it can’t lead to wins in October. However, history isn’t necessarily in the Orioles’ favor. In the last five full seasons, the team that led MLB has never even reached the World Series. Only the 2022 Yankees made their League Championship Series, and they got swept by the Astros. The 2023 Braves, 2019 Twins and 2018 Yankees all lost in the Division Series round, while the 2021 Blue Jays missed the playoffs entirely.
The teams finishing second in baseball in homers have had a little more success in the postseason. The 2018 Dodgers made it all the way to the World Series, only to lose to the Red Sox. The 2019 Yankees made it to the ALCS, falling in six games to Houston. The last three years, the Giants, Braves and Dodgers hit the second-most home runs—and all crashed out in the NLDS.
Once the O’s get healthier, that should solve some of their offensive inconsistencies. Of the Orioles’ top six hitters in Barrels/PA, three are currently on the IL in Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle and Ramón Urías. Getting Westy, RMC and Uríasback in the lineup should provide a greater measure of consistency.
While players like Santander, Rutschman and Mullins are extreme fly ball hitters this season, the injured trio of Orioles bring a more line-drive-centered approach. Home runs are great at putting runs on the board in bunches, but they don’t sustain rallies. Too often of late, the Orioles fail to string hits together and put together the type of innings that get runs on the board while taxing the opposing pitching staff. A fully healthy lineup will have the tools to change that.
There’s no guarantee that Baltimore can change its offensive approach in time to make a difference in the postseason. The O’s will certainly have the players to jump-start this offense and move away from their homer-dependent inconsistencies. Whether the 17 remaining regular season games are enough time for the right lineup to come together remains to be seen.