With Jackson Holliday settling in the leadoff spot, is it time to juggle the Orioles lineup?

St. Louis Cardinals v Baltimore Orioles — Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

The Orioles’ offensive woes could be helped by some lineup tweaks.

On Wednesday night, the Orioles dropped a winnable game, failing—as they have too often this season—to drive in runs in crucial spots. Jackson Holliday had three hits as the leadoff hitter, including two doubles, and scored not once. It’s a typical scene for a team that has played to a deplorable 7-18 record in May despite having a leadoff hitter who OPS’d .819 in that time.

For Jackson Holliday, that’s the highest OPS of any month, period, in his young career. It bodes good things, but also, for this team, some teachable moments.

A few weeks ago, CC’s John Beers did a piece tracking Holliday’s breakout at the plate. The 21-year-old had a tough rookie season, failing to crack the Mendoza line and whiffing 36% of the time, but he entered this spring full of confidence—and ground beef, which he credited for the 15 lbs. of muscle he put on in the offseason. He had a new swing, to boot, ditching a big leg kick for a demure toe-tap.

For all the new swag, though, over the first month of the season, Holliday did little to make you think he’d overcome his rookie year struggles. Over the Orioles’ first twenty games, Holliday hit .213/.273/.361/.633. During a three-week span, he struck out fourteen times and walked once.

Then—credit a swing adjustment his dad suggested, or whatever—but slowly but surely, things started to go right for the young second baseman. He went 2-for-4 against the Nationals on April 23, and facing Kansas City on May 4, he logged the first two-home run game of his career. He’s put together hit streaks of six and ten games in the meantime. Since April 23, Holliday has hit .306 and hiked his average 40 points.

For the first month of the season, Holliday was floundering around the bottom of the lineup, but on May 10, Holliday hit leadoff for the first time. Manager Brandon Hyde was fired a week later, but there’s been no change in the plan: he’s been the leadoff man in every game Tony Mansolino has managed.

The question is … is that wise?

It’s known that the Orioles are having trouble scoring runs. They’re 24th of thirty MLB teams in runs batted in. They’re averaging .207 with RISP on the season.

In part, we know, this is because several players are out with injury. Here was the Orioles’ opening day lineup:

Colton Cowser – LF

Adley Rutschman – C

Jordan Westburg – 2B

Ryan O’Hearn – DH

Tyler O’Neill – RF

Ryan Mountcastle – 1B

Cedric Mullins – CF

Ramón Urías – 3B

Jackson Holliday – SS

Makes you feel sad, doesn’t it. Cowser (thumb), Westburg (hamstring), and O’Neill (shoulder) have 55 games total between them, as many as the team has played this season. In terms of Win Probability Added (WPA), OPS, and WAR, only three players on this list are in the black: O’Hearn, Mullins and Urías.

With so many injuries, the Orioles have pivoted to other options. Here are their most common lineups, against RHP and LHP:

vs. RHP

vs. LHP

Traditional batting order construction wisdom dictates that a team should put its best hitters in the 1, 2 and 4 spots. The truth is, while we’re still hoping for a Great! Turnaround! from Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle, these two are not performing in this niche.

Rutschman is currently on track for a .641 OPS and 0.5 WAR (including 0.5 offensive WAR). The switch-hitting catcher’s splits are especially revealing. Against left handers, he’s hitting .245 with one home run in 53 AB’s. Against righties, .189 with four homers in 127 AB’s. The latter numbers are not good enough to justify keeping him in the No. 2 hole against right handers.

Meanwhile, Ryan Mountcastle is making the platoon calculus look even worse. He’s actually got backward splits, .252/.280/.385/.665 vs. RHP, and .204/.259/.224/.484 vs. LHP. Despite ideas that moving in Mt. Walltimore would help the right-handed Mountcastle, his power against lefties is exactly nonexistent, as a .484 OPS would indicate. Mountcastle has no home runs and one double against southpaws and twelve doubles and two homers against righties. He shouldn’t be hitting so high in the lineup against lefties.

What alternate lineups could make sense? Far and away the best-hitting Oriole is Ryan O’Hearn, with a .338 BA, .977 OPS and 184 OPS+. After him, it’s still Cedric Mullins, who is neck-in-neck with O’Hearn for the team lead in home runs, with nine and ten, respectively. Versus righties, it stands to reason that Mullins and O’Hearn could be hitting second or third or cleanup everyday.

After O’Hearn, the O’s most effective hitter, surprisingly, has been outfielder Ramón Laureano (.852 OPS in 94 AB). Laureano has been out of the lineup since injuring his ankle on May 20, but he’s due to return in the next couple days. A career .754 OPS hitter, Laureano’s hot streak will end eventually, so perhaps it’s wise to ride the hot hand? He, like several other Orioles we’re seeing, also has reverse splits, so add Laureano to the top-of-the-lineup contenders against righties.

Colton Cowser is another left-handed hitter who should be returning from the IL soon. With his slight career splits and bat-to-ball skills, he should probably be in the middle of the lineup everyday.

Against lefties, at the top of the order it might be worthwhile to go with a combination of Holliday, O’Hearn, Mullins and Rutschman until Jordan Westburg returns.

With one caveat: as for Holliday, while the team should keep putting him out in the leadoff spot, they might want to be cautious about batting him against left handers. His righty/lefty splits are as follows: .295/.340/.486/.826 (RHP) vs. .194/.256/.222/.479 (LHP).

Overall, the Orioles’ struggles at the plate this season counsel a need to rethink a pair of common wisdoms. One, the team needs to be flexible in adapting to what the hitters are giving them. If the hoped-for big hitters aren’t producing, they should be moved down in the batting order. Two, splits have not always predictive of performance. Many Orioles, for whatever reason, have reverse splits. Ryan Mountcastle is not hitting lefties and Rutschman is not hitting righties: let’s start there.

The Orioles’ preseason hopes for great things this season won’t come true this season, but they need to start lining up a plausible battle plan for next season. Besides, this was drawn up to be and remains a talented team. The cupboard isn’t empty enough that they can’t correct their hitting woes and put a watchable product on the field. It’s not too late for that.