One of the most overused expressions in sports is “must-win.” However, this week’s seven-game road trip to Tampa Bay and New York certainly fits that description.
The Orioles aren’t yet at the mathematical halfway point of the season. That won’t come for another 10 days when they’re again playing the Rays, and the All-Star break isn’t for four weeks.
The hole the Orioles put themselves in by playing raggedly over their first 50 games still looks insurmountable—especially after Monday night’s 7-1 loss to Tampa Bay that featured only four Orioles hits and 11 strikeouts.
After going 16-34 in the first 50, which included the sacking of manager Brandon Hyde and the initial week of Tony Mansolino, the Orioles revived with 14 wins in their next 20 games until Monday night’s loss.
Those three weeks got many fans excited, thinking a comeback for the ages was in store. It could be, but it’s still highly unlikely.
BaseballReference.com, which gave the Orioles a .1 percent chance to make the postseason when they were slumbering, still only calculates their chances to play in October at .2 percent.
FanGraphs’ model, which believes the Orioles will play .500 ball the rest of the season and finish 76-86, assigns them slightly better odds of qualifying for the postseason, 3.9 percent.
First, though, the Orioles have to get through this daunting week. The Yankees, whom the Orioles play this weekend, lead the American League East by 2 ½ games over the Rays and don’t even have the best record in the league.
The Detroit Tigers, who beat the Orioles twice in three games last week, own the best record in baseball.
The Orioles defeated the Yankees in two of three games in late April, something that’s forgotten because the game the Orioles lost was so painful. On April 29th, Kyle Gibson returned and allowed four home runs to the first five Yankees batters in a 15-3 embarrassment.
Tampa Bay has often been a difficult place for the Orioles to play, and the Rays have been a vexing opponent over the years. As recently as 2021 when the Orioles lost 110 games, Tampa Bay held an 18-1 advantage over them.
The Orioles won the season series the last two years, and they may have to do that again this year if they want to contend for the postseason. Monday night’s game was the first of 13 games, seven in the next two weeks, against the Rays.
For years, Tropicana Field was a challenging ballpark for the Orioles, but this year, the Rays are playing in the Yankees’ spring training home, George M. Steinbrenner Field, because the Trop was badly damaged by Hurricane Milton last fall.
On May 24th, the Orioles were 18 games below .500 and on track for a 100-plus loss season. At 30-41, they project to a 66-96 record and should be safe from a third 100-loss season in the Mike Elias era.
Despite the punchless Monday night, the Orioles seem to be looking up. Their bullpen looks excellent with a 1.28 ERA this month.
Seranthony Domínguez could be building a strong free-agent resume. In his last nine appearances, he’s allowed just two hits in 9 1/3 scoreless innings with 16 strikeouts and just two walks.
Félix Bautista has given up only a hit in six scoreless innings, and he’s registered his first 100-plus mph pitch since his October 2023 Tommy John surgery.
Bryan Baker, who spent most of last year at Triple-A Norfolk and had a 5.01 ERA in 19 games with the Orioles, has a 2.59 ERA, 41 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings and has become a trusted setup man for Mansolino.
Gregory Soto has thrown six scoreless innings, giving up one hit and striking out 10 with a lone walk.
The bullpen has been helped by the addition of Andrew Kittredge, who didn’t get to pitch for Hyde because of left knee surgery. Kittredge has a 1.93 ERA in his first 10 games.
There are other reasons for optimism, too. Adley Rutschman has boosted his average 30 points this month and is hitting a robust .356 with a 1.023 OPS in June.
Gunnar Henderson is hitting .373 with an .899 OPS this month.
Colton Cowser, Ramón Laurean and Jordan Westburg have returned from injuries, and the offense should be better.
So should the rotation with the possibility of Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells being available for the final two months of the season.
Having those starters, an outstanding bullpen and a productive offense could make for an interesting final two months of the season, but first the Orioles must make these next six weeks before the trade deadline productive.
The trade deadline is July 31st, which comes at the two-thirds mark of the season, so a record of 24-13 is needed to get to .500 by then.
For Elias not to sell off his many looming free agents (Domínguez, Soto, Ryan O’Hearn, Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Cedric Mullins and Tomoyuki Sugano), the Orioles are going to have to continue their fine recent play.
A good start would be winning at least four of the remaining six games on this early-season “must-win” road trip.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.