Zach Eflin was a hero for the Orioles down the stretch. How will he fare this season?
When the Orioles traded for Zach Eflin last July, they seemed to have received more than they could have hoped for. Eflin had made 19 mediocre starts for the non-contending Rays, who sent him to Baltimore for prospects.
Eflin was immediately better with the Orioles. Starting with a six-inning start on July 29, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA over nine starts in support of his new team as they stumbled into the playoffs.
Eflin was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the first round in 2012. The Padres traded him to the Dodgers in 2014, who almost immediately flipped him to the Phillies for Jimmy Rollins. He made his major-league debut in 2016 and stayed with the Phillies for seven seasons. He was never great with the Phillies, pitching to a 4.49 ERA in 127 games. He always had decent strikeout and walk numbers, but gave up a lot of home runs.
After he reached free agency in 2022, the Rays struck early and signed him to a three-year, $40 million contract. It looked like the Rays got a bargain when he had the best season of his career in 2023. He made 31 starts and pitched a career-high 177.2 innings. He had a 3.50 ERA and finished sixth in Cy Young voting.
His results went downhill to start 2024. His peripheral numbers didn’t look too different from 2023 but he struck out fewer and his home run levels were back up to where they were with the Phillies. The end result was a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts and a one-way ticket out of Florida.
I mentioned the 2.60 ERA with the Orioles, but the truth is his underlying numbers weren’t much better. He allowed eight home runs in his nine starts, which accounted for 13 of the 16 runs he gave up in an O’s uniform. But he limited damage otherwise and pitched into the sixth inning in each of his first eight starts with the team.
From the date of Eflin’s first start with the Orioles on July 29 through the end of the season, the Orioles had a record of 29-28. In Eflin’s starts they went 7-2. His arrival and performance with the team coincided with the only bad month put up by team ace Corbin Burnes. Eflin picked up the slack. Without him, things would have been so much worse.
So who is the real Zach Eflin? Seven years’ worth of data in Philadelphia shows a pitcher solid enough for a spot in the starting rotation, but not the savior that we saw in Baltimore last year. His 2023 season with the Rays was excellent. And it wasn’t an illusion. His FIP was even lower than his 3.50 ERA, his groundball numbers were up, his strikeouts were up. But it was just one season.
Here are Eflin’s stats with both the Orioles and Rays last year:
- Rays: 19 GS, 110 IP, 4.09 ERA/3.68 FIP, 14 HR, 13 BB, 87 K
- Orioles: 9 GS, 55.1 IP, 2.60 ERA/3.94 FIP, 8 HR, 11 BB, 47 K
And here are his ZiPS projections:
26 G, 148.7 IP, 3.75 ERA/3.77 FIP, 19 HR, 25 BB, 122 K, 2.3 fWAR
This would not be a bad season! That’s a solid year for a starting pitcher. For those who watched Eflin’s performance over his nine starts with the Orioles, it might be a bit of a letdown. Ditto if they only started paying attention to the Eflin when he joined the AL East. Eflin with those stats would be a very solid part of the rotation. But that is not a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. It remains to be seen if the Orioles actually have one of those.
The case for the over
Let’s talk ERA. Eflin was never going to pitch to a 2.60 ERA for a full season. A full run higher might seem like a big jump, but 3.75 would be a lower ERA than Eflin had in any year he pitched for the Phillies. And that’s 127 games of data. Over 650 innings. It’s hard to argue with that.
The case for the under
Eflin’s two years since leaving Philadelphia have been better than any year he had with them. Even with an underwhelming first half with Tampa Bay last season, his overall ERA for 2023-24 is just 3.54. That’s over 59 starts and 343 innings. It’s not as large of data set as seven seasons with the Phillies, but it’s not chump change either. It’s possible he figured something out when he joined the Rays and that will carry over into 2025.