ZiPS projections give another view of 2025 Orioles strengths, needs

There are a lot of good things going on, and a couple of key needs to be addressed.

As the Orioles try to figure out what needs to be done over the course of this offseason, one important thing to get a handle on is what they’ve already got. They’ve probably already got their own projections about what to expect from their returning roster of players. Since the public won’t get to see those, Friday’s release of the 2025 Orioles ZiPS projections at FanGraphs is the best that we can do.

ZiPS’s creator, Dan Szymborski, notes that the projection for the 2025 Orioles is “to win somewhere between 85 and 90 games,” which is an unsurprising outcome considering right now it’s the 2024 Orioles roster minus Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. ZiPS sees more downside to the O’s from the loss of Burnes than it does for Santander.

You can find more in detail at FG, but if you want the short version, the WAR depth chart generated by Szymborski as things stand right now:

A few things stand out to me in the projection.

The outfield is in good shape

If a Heston Kjerstad-led group of right fielders can in fact put up a 2.6 WAR, the Orioles will be doing well in the outfield. ZiPS envisions a .262/.335/.433 batting line as the 50th percentile outcome for Kjerstad, which is a slight improvement on his 2024 batting, losing 16 points of OBP while gaining 39 points of SLG. That would be a fair trade since the .335 OBP is still pretty good in today’s game. The MLB OBP for 2024 was .312.

This does still leave the Orioles with three lefty-batting starters in the outfield, since Cedric Mullins and Colton Cowser are, like Kjerstad, batting from the left side. The ZiPS projection thinks that the O’s might be fine with former top 100 prospect Daz Cameron as a righty-batting fourth outfielder, with Cameron coming in as a league-average bat in the projection. That would be something from a player whose big league career OPS is .593.

The starting rotation needs some help

Even if we were to assume that the outcomes will be roughly as good as this chart for next season, that’s not good enough. I don’t think that the Orioles should, or will, assume that their current group will generate these numbers.

Grayson Rodriguez’s 2.7 WAR projection is more than he has ever done in a season, as is Dean Kremer’s 2.2. This time last year, ZiPS projected 2.9 WAR from Kremer and 2.4 from Rodriguez. Their actual fWAR for 2024 was 1.4 (Kremer) and 2.0 (Rodriguez). ZiPS likes Kremer even as he perpetually disappoints its guesses. Even the 1.2 WAR projection for Cade Povich is generous for a guy whose ERA in 16 starts this season was over 5.

What does the projected rotation look like for a team that’s expected to have its rotation as a strength? Consider this ZiPS projection for the Atlanta Braves:

• Chris Sale – 4.5 WAR
• Reynaldo López – 4.1
• Spencer Schwellenbach – 3.0
• Griffin Canning – 0.7
• Spencer Strider – 2.1 (returning from April ‘24 UCL surgery)

Put a 4 WAR guy at the top of the Orioles rotation and the picture looks a lot better. They’re going to have to sign or trade for that guy because he’s not projected to be here right now.

The back end of the bullpen may not be where the need is

I’ve been assuming that the Orioles should get an experienced veteran into the back end of the bullpen to relieve the pressure as Félix Bautista returns from Tommy John surgery. ZiPS is satisfied that he’ll end up with a K% of 35.4 (well below his 46.4 from 2023) and a 2.56 ERA (up from 2023’s 1.48). We could live with that. There are, likewise, good-enough projections for guys like Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Domínguez.

On the other hand, the rest of the bullpen has some low-hanging fruit for possible improvement. Projecting three bullpen spots for Bryan Baker, Colin Selby, and Thaddeus Ward is probably not the best version of the 2025 Orioles. Perhaps they don’t need any kind of notable free agent signing here, if they can conjure up a good pitcher from the group of unheralded minor league signings, kind of like they ended up doing in the rotation with Albert Suárez for 2024.

Jackson Holliday

There is no concern whatsoever from the projection system after Holliday’s rough first brush with the MLB level this year. Holliday gets a 2.9 win projection with a batting line of .231/.335/.383. Orioles fans would have been thrilled to see that from Holliday in 2024 and I don’t think anyone would be less thrilled to see it in 2025. There were signs from Holliday’s late-season performance that he was starting to figure some things out.

The Ryans at first base and designated hitter

Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn make up much of the playing time at these two positions, according to the ZiPS projections, and these work out as the weakest spots in the regular lineup, each getting a 1.6 win projection. That’s just good enough that the Orioles aren’t going to be inclined to toss these guys aside for nothing, but it’s not good enough for fans to feel happy about the production from lineup spots that need more power from them. Perhaps Walltimore 2.0 will make a difference for Mountcastle.

With 2024’s midseason trade of Austin Hays, Mike Elias has demonstrated that he’s not afraid to make a change if a more veteran player falls behind an emerging young player. If the Orioles are confident in Coby Mayo, perhaps Mountcastle would even be traded before the season, or that could be a July 2025 decision.

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Compared to the kind of baseball we were getting 3-5 years ago, a projection of 85-90 wins is great. Compared to the 2023 final record and the hopes that we had after the first half of the 2024 season, a mid-80s win total is not as great. That’s especially true when it feels like there are easy ways to raise the floor and ceiling of this team that only require spending money.

Elias has not spent money in a meaningful way yet and if he doesn’t do so for 2025 and the team looks more like the .500 club it was in the second half of this year, that will not make for a fun time to be an Orioles fan. Quality free agents remain, so hope is not lost, but they’ve got to get better somewhere.