A tour of some key stats from the first two rounds
The first two rounds of the NBA playoffs are complete. It’s been one of the best and most entertaining postseasons I can recall, though in fairness I’ve been watching only since 1978.
The conference finals are:
- Eastern Conference: 8 seed Miami Heat vs. 2 seed Boston Celtics
- Western Conference: 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. 1 seed Denver Nuggets
Personally, I love these matchups. The Lakers remade their dumpster fire of a roster with a series of deals at the trade deadline, finally putting adequate talent around an aging Lebron James and a fragile Anthony Davis.
The Nuggets got Jamal Murray healthy and made the offseason trade to obtain Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from the Wizards, which put a nice mix of talent around two-time (though it should be three-time) league MVP Nikola Jokic.
As is The Wizards Way (hat-tip to Monte Morris), both Western Conference Finalists improved by obtaining former Wizards players. The Nuggets got KCP in that offseason deal, and uses former Wizards Jeff Green as a backup forward/center.
The Lakers traded for former Wizards lottery selection Rui Hachimura — who’s playoffs efg is 66.3% — and has former Wizards first-round pick Troy Brown Jr. in the rotation.
Also, at the deadline, the Lakers traded former Washington center Thomas Bryant — who’d played well for them — to the Nuggets for some second round picks. Bryant, who’d requested a trade from LA when he saw the team’s other deals, hasn’t been able to crack Denver’s rotation. He has zero minutes so far in the playoffs.
The Eastern Conference Finals are free of Wizards connections, unless you want to claim Robert Williams, who should have been selected instead of Brown. To me that’s a stretch, but your mileage may vary.
In my (not-so) expert opinion, I think the Nuggets will beat the Lakers and reach the Finals. I’m not confident in that pick. While Jokic will be the best player in the series, Davis is a sublime defender, James (though diminished) is still terrific, and they have interesting players and lineups for head coach Darvin Ham to puzzle together. I still think Denver has too much offensive firepower, and they seem to have coalesced defensively.
In the East, Boston should win. They’ve been the better team all season, and they have a deeper and more talented roster. But, the Heat have Jimmy Butler, the NBA’s most underrated player (Butler registered the top score in my PPA metric this season — but lagged in total production due to missing games and playing time with injuries), as well as defensive star Bam Adebayo, and superstar coach Erik Spoelstra.
My guess is both series go seven games. The Western Conference series because the teams are a fairly even match, and the Eastern Conference series because of Miami’s toughness and Boston’s penchant for inexplicable brain farts.
With that, let’s take a look at some postseason numbers. Here’s an All-Playoffs Team (minimum 75 minutes played) through the first two rounds according to my PPA metric (PPA — short for Player Production Average — is my all-around production metric. It’s pace neutral, includes defense and position/role. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.):
First Team
- Nikola Jokic, DEN — PPA: 250
- Jimmy Butler, MIA — 239
- Kawhi Leonard, LAC — 235
- Devin Booker, PHO — 220
- Anthony Edwards, MIN — 207
Second Team
- Jayson Tatum, BOS — 205
- Lebron James, LAC — 188
- Jalen Brunson, NYK — 180
- Anthony Davis, LAC — 178
- Jamal Murray, DEN — 169
Top Players by Position
Point Guard
- Brunson, NYK — 180
- Murray, DEN — 169
- Stephen Curry, GSW — 162
- Marcus Smart, BOS — 140
- James Harden, PHI — 139
Notable Point Guards
- Trae Young, ATL — 133
- De’Aaron Fox, SAC — 125
- Chris Paul, PHO — 120
- Spencer Dinwiddie, BRK — 84
- Jordan Poole, GSW — 34
Shooting Guard
- Booker, PHO — 220
- Edwards, MIN — 207
- Dejounte Murray, ATL — 168
- Pat Connaughton, MIL — 153
- Tyrese Maxey, PHI — 130
Notable Shooting Guards
- Donovan Mitchell, CLE — 107
- Desmond Bane, MEM — 78
- Klay Thompson, GSW — 60
Small Forward
- Butler, MIA — 239
- Leonard, LAC — 235
- Michael Porter Jr., DEN — 154
- Cam Johnson, BRK — 148
- Jaylen Brown, BOS — 140
Notable Small Forwards
- RJ Barrett, NYK — 91
- Troy Brown Jr., LAL — 49
Power Forward
- Tatum, BOS — 205
- Kevin Durant, PHO — 141
- Rui Hachimura, LAL — 128
- Kevin Love, MIA — 124
- Draymond Green, GSW — 121
Notable Power Forwards
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL — 87
- Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM — 92
- Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN — 54
- Julius Randle, NYK — 52
Center
- Jokic, DEN — 250
- Davis, LAC — 178
- Kevon Looney, GSW — 163
- Mitchell Robinson, NYK — 145
- Nic Claxton, BRK — 144
Notable Centers
- Joel Embiid, PHI — 100
- Domantas Sabonis, SAC — 94
- Deandre Ayton, PHO — 80
Playoffs Leaders
Stats below will be per 100 team possessions unless otherwise specified. Minimum of 75 playoffs minutes.
Points
- Leonard, LAC — 41.9
- Jokic, DEN — 40.9
- Edwards, MIN — 40.5
- Booker, PHO — 39.8
- Butler, MIA — 39.4
Rebounds
- Looney, GSW — 24.9
- Paul Reed, PHI — 20.1
- Davis, LAL — 18.5
- Mason Plumlee, LAC — 18.2
- Bobby Portis, MIL — 18.0
Assists
- Jokic, DEN — 12.9
- Young, ATL — 12.6
- Harden, PHI — 11.2
- Green, GSW — 10.6
- Paul, PHO — 10.2
Steals
- Kyle Anderson, MIN — 3.4
- Tyus Jones, MEM — 3.2
- Fox, SAC — 2.6
- Mitchell, CLE — 2.5
- Murray, ATL — 2.5
Blocks
- Bismack Biyombo, PHO — 6.3
- Davis, LAL — 4.3
- Embiid, PHI — 3.9
- Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK — 3.6
- Al Horford, BOS — 3.4
Turnovers
- G. Antetokounmpo, MIL — 7.2
- Randle, NYK — 5.5
- Embiid, PHI — 5.5
- Towns, MIN — 5.1
- Russell Westbrook, LAC — 5.1
Personal Fouls
- Biyombo, PHO — 11.3
- Cody Zeller, MIA — 9.2
- Plumlee, LAC — 8.0
- Green, DEN — 7.1
- Isaac Okoro, CLE — 7.0
Now to some efficiency stats.
Relative Offensive Efficiency
This is individual points produced per individual possession used x 100. Minimum of 75 minutes played AND 20% or higher usage.
- Booker, PHO — +19.7
- Leonard, LAC — +17.2
- Jokic, DEN — +14.2
- Butler, MIA — +13.8
- Edwards, MIN — +11.0
+PTS (plus-points)
Combines efficiency and usage. The formula is individual offensive rating minus average offensive rating times player’s individual usage. The metric compares points produced by player in the possessions he used to the points the league produced on average in the same number of possessions.
- Booker, PHO — +52.7
- Jokic, DEN — +41.1
- Butler, MIA — +33.3
- Derrick White, BOS — +17.9
- Hachimura, LAL — +17.3
And the lowest +PTS scores (should this be -PTS?)
- Randle, NYK — -38.4
- Thompson, GSW — -29.0
- Poole, GSW — -23.2
- Dillon Brooks, MEM — -23.2
- Gabe Vincent, MIA — -16.8
- Embiid, PHI — -16.7
Effective Field Goal Percentage
Minimum 75 minutes played.
- Plumlee, LAC — 87.5%
- Robert Williams, BOS — 79.2%
- Connaugton, MIL — 75.0%
- Joe Ingles, MIL — 73.9%
- Nic Claxon, BRK — 72.0%
Worth mention that all of the top five in this category used few possessions. Connaughton was tops with a usage rate of 15.6%. If I add a 20% usage screen, the top five in efg is: Booker, Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Jokic and Norman Powell.
Three-Point Field Goal Percentage
Minimum 75 minutes AND 3.5 three-point attempts per 100 team possessions (average is 7.2).
- Leonard, LAC — 60.0%
- Moses Moody, GSW — 59.1%
- Hachimura, LAL — 53.3%
- Booker, PHO — 50.8%
- Ingles, MIL and Luke Kennard, MEM — 50.0%
Game Score
This translates overall production from my PPA metric into points on the scoreboard. This is a per game stat that’s primarily for entertainment value. Scale is similar to points per game. Minimum 75 minutes.
- Jokic, DEN — 43.1
- Leonard, LAC — 42.8
- Butler, MIA — 42.6
- Booker, PHO — 41.9
- Edwards, MIN — 37.6
- Tatum, BOS — 37.0
- Brunson, NYK — 33.0
- James, LAL — 32.1
- Murray, DEN — 29.6
- Murray, ATL — 29.1
Jokic has been the best player in the postseason thus far. He’s averaging per 100 team possessions 40.9 points, 17.1 rebounds (including 5.6 offensive rebounds), and 12.9 assists. He’s the only player in the playoffs averaging a triple-double per 100 possessions. He needs to work on his free throw shooting, though. His 78.7% is 0.003 below average.
If you’re interested in something you don’t see in the article, feel free to leave a question in the comments.