Stats, commentary, analysis.
The 2023-24 season was the worst in Washington Wizards franchise history. That was expected. The year was about Step Zero in the rebuild — jettisoning bloated contracts for veteran players and setting the stage for future acquisitions.
I won’t go into a litany of all the ways this season was bad. We witnessed, we survived, we can move on.
One caution: while it may feel unlikely that even a rebuilding team could be much worse than the Wizards were this season, it’s worth noting that for The Process 76ers, the worst season was year three. They won 19 games, 18 games, and then 10.
There’s a key difference, however (at least hopefully). Philadelphia kept picking injured players who would miss full seasons and tried to lose to get another crack at a high lottery pick. Under the leadership of Michael Winger, Travis Schlenk, and Will Dawkins, the Wizards are going to start trying to win much sooner.
Hopefully.
Next year might be just as bad, but my guess is they’ll try to start turning the corner towards competitiveness in year three — 2026-27 season.
Back to 2024-25, the Wizards were bad. Here’s where they finished in key metrics of team strength:
- strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin: 29th
- offensive rating: 25th
- defensive rating: 28th
In the category of Yay Cardio!, they did finish first in pace.
Four Factors: Offense Rank
- effective field goal percentage (efg): 19th
- turnover percentage (tov%): 17th
- offensive rebound percentage (oreb%): 29th
- free throws made / field goals attempted (FTM/FGA): 29th
Four Factors: Defense Rank
- defensive efg: 26th
- dtov%: 19th
- dreb%: 30th
- dftm/dfga: 22nd
The relatively high ranking in offensive efg is related to converting at-rim attempts. They were fifth best from three feet and in at 73.1%. They were bottom five from beyond that range and ranked 26th in three-point percentage.
On defense, what matters most is making the other team missing and then getting the rebound. The Wizards were poor at both. And they fouled a lot too.
On the offensive end, one of the biggest coaching challenges for Wes Unseld Jr. and then Brian Keefe was the inefficiency of the team’s “stars,” Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole. Kuzma finished the season with an offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) of 105 on a usage rate of 28.5%. Poole notched a 103 on 25.4% usage.
League average was 115.3.
In my +PTS metric (plus points), which compares a player’s efficiency to league average over the same number of possessions used, those two ranked in the bottom 10 in total points “lost” due to inefficiency.
The bottom 10:
- Scoot Henderson, POR → -213.2
- Jordan Poole, WAS → -158.0
- Jalen Green, HOU → -153.3
- Paolo Banchero, ORL → -152.3
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS → -146.9
- Kyle Kuzma, WAS → -143.6
- Jaden Ivey, DET → -136.9
- Keyonte George, UTA → -136.8
- Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM → -113.9
- Jordan Clarkson, UTA → -113.0
Depending on your Wizards Goggles prescription, you might take solace in some of the names on the list with Poole and Kuzma. You might also note the age and experience of most of them. The average age in the bottom 10 is 22.9 years old. It’s not encouraging when veterans are this inefficient. Kuzma, second oldest on the list at 28, achieved this distinction last season.
Just for giggles, here are this year’s +PTS leaders:
- Nikola Jokic, DEN → +252.9
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC → +221.0
- Jarrett Allen, CLE → +158.2
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL → +157.7
- Daniel Gafford, WAS/DAL → +155.0
- Tyrese Haliburton, IND → +152.8
- Domantas Sabonis, SAC → +142.8
- Jimmy Butler, MIA → +140.5
- Anthony Davis, LAL → +134.0
- Rudy Gobert, MIN → +125.1
Bigs are well represented at the top, in part because size matters in the NBA. Worth note that the next few on the list are a mix of guards and wings: Grayson Allen, Mike Conley, Lauri Markkanen, Isaiah Hartenstein, Kawhi Leonard, Devin Booker.
Player Production Average
Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall production metric I put together. It rewards players for doing things that help a team win like making shots, playmaking, defending, and rebounding, and dings them for things that hurt the cause of winning like missing shots, committing turnovers, defending poorly and fouling.
Each factor is weighted based on regression analysis that determined how each category relates to winning. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
A table with the Wizards scores for the season is below. Here’s a look at each position with a minimum of 1300 minutes played. Note: to qualify for postseason awards, the NBA rule required players to appear in at least 20 minutes of 65 regular season games. The way my brain works, that’s 20×65, which is 1300.
Here’s the top 20 in PPA per 100 team possessions:
- Nikola Jokic, DEN — 247
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC — 246
- Joel Embiid, PHI — 235
- Luka Doncic, DAL — 226
- Tyrese Haliburton, IND — 213
- Kawhi Leonard, LAC — 197
- Lebron James, LAL — 193
- Anthony Davis, LAL — 188
- Donovan Mitchell, CLE — 188
- Kyrie Irving, DAL — 185
- Jimmy Butler, MIA — 185
- Jamal Murray, DEN — 183
- Jarrett Allen, CLE — 178
- Lauri Markkanen, UTA — 177
- Jalen Brunson, NYK — 177
- Stephen Curry, GSW — 174
- Jayson Tatum, BOS — 173
- Kristaps Porzingis, BOS — 173
- Domantas Sabonis, SAC — 172
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS — 169
Leaders in total production?
- Jokic
- SGA
- Doncic
- Giannis
- Davis
- Sabonis
- Lebron
- Brunson
- Haliburton
- Kawhi
- Tatum
- Allen
- Kevin Durant, PHO
- Anthony Edwards, MIN
- Curry
- Rudy Gobert, MIN
- James Harden, LAC
- Devin Booker, PHO
- De’Aaron Fox, SAC
- Tyrese Maxey, PHI
My All-NBA
First Team
- Jokic
- SGA
- Doncic
- Giannis
- Davis
Second Team
- Lebron
- Brunson
- Haliburton
- Kawhi
- Tatum
Third Team
- Durant
- Edwards
- Sabonis
- Booker
- Curry
And finally, here’s the Wizards PPA scores for 2023-24:
Rotation(ish) players who finished the season on the roster
- Tyus Jones → 154
- Marvin Bagley III → 146
- Deni Avdija → 111
- Kyle Kuzma → 98
- Richaun Holmes → 87
- Corey Kispert → 80
- Jordan Poole → 67
- Jared Butler → 61
- Tristan Vukcevic → 55
- Eugene Omoruyi → 54
- Bilal Coulibaly → 49
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. → 46
- Landry Shamet → 45
Others on the roster when the season ended
- Hamidou Diallo → 159
- Justin Champagnie → 69
- Jules Bernard → 47
- Anthony Gill → 42
- Johnny Davis → 21
Others who suited up at some point
- Daniel Gafford → 154
- Ryan Rollins → 88
- Delon Wright → 78
- Mike Muscala → 26
- Trey Jemison → -182
I’ll have more on each player throughout the offseason (first up: Deni Avdija).