The Mystics have two first round picks next year. Both of them could end up in the lottery.
After posting on some positive and some negative things I saw from the Washington Mystics in the 2024 WNBA season, it’s important that I touch on this subject: the 2025 WNBA Draft.
Let’s be honest, the Mystics have a 5-17 record, tied for worst in the WNBA with the Dallas Wings. But on the bright side, having a bad team gives a squad a better chance at a top draft pick in 2025, with UConn guard PAIGE BUECKERS, who will likely be a franchise player on any team she ends up on.
The news gets a bit better though, because Washington also has a second first round pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft from a trade with the Dallas Wings in 2023. We’ll revisit that as well.
What picks do the Mystics have in the 2025 WNBA Draft?
Washington has two picks:
- Their own first round pick dependent on their regular season position in 2023 and 2024.
- The Atlanta Dream’s first round pick dependent on their regular season position in 2023 and 2024 (via the Dallas Wings, who traded that pick to Washington)
Washington traded these picks away:
- The Mystics traded their 2024 and 2025 second round picks to the Las Vegas Aces in exchange for Amanda Zahui B. After coming to Washington, Zahui B. only played 12 games before ultimately finishing her 2023 season with the Indiana Fever.
- The Mystics gave their 2025 third round pick to the Seattle Storm in exchange for Jade Melbourne right before the 2024 regular season. I think it’s a fair trade considering that third round picks rarely make opening day rosters.
So in short, the Mystics only have two picks, both in the first round.
The Mystics are most likely missing the playoffs in 2024. How is the draft lottery determined?
Unlike the NBA Draft Lottery which uses the last regular season record of all non-playoff teams before trades, the WNBA Draft Lottery uses the combined regular season record for the last two years of all non-playoff teams.
In layman’s terms, the 2024 lottery teams’ combined records from 2024 AND 2023 are used to determine the record. Here are the combined records for the Mystics, the Atlanta Dream, Los Angeles Sparks and Dallas Wings for the whole 2023 season and 2024 season:
The actual draft lottery is for the first and second overall picks. So the team with the highest lottery odds (and the worst record over the last two regular seasons) cannot pick lower than third.
If the Draft Lottery were today, the Mystics, Sparks, Dream and Wings all had pretty similar records in 2023 when they were lower tier playoff or teams just outside the playoffs. So we aren’t in a situation where the worst team in 2024 alone had the best regular season record in 2023.
Why does the WNBA Draft Lottery use the combined record for the last two years, not the last one year like the NBA?
In short, the format of the current WNBA Draft Lottery was adopted in 2015 and used since the 2016 season.
Now why is the format the way it is? It is to discourage tanking by teams for a particular draft and player in a single season.
The textbook example that the WNBA wanted to avoid was the 2012 Phoenix Mercury season where the team had a 7-27 record due to missing star guard Diana Taurasi for most of the season due to injury, though she appeared to be just fine during the Olympics. The Mercury went on to win the 2013 Draft Lottery where they selected Baylor center Brittney Griner and win the championship in 2014. Phoenix has never admitted to tanking for Griner, and I don’t they ever will.
The worst team in 2012 was the Mystics (coincidentally) and they had the best odds of getting the No. 1 pick where they would have definitely picked Griner. However, they fell to fourth, and missed out on getting her, Delaware forward Elena Delle Donne or Notre Dame guard Skylar Diggins. That set their rebuild back for sure and it also hurt the Mystics’ ability to drawn in fans to the then-Verizon Center. Seeing how the Mystics were right after that draft lottery could very well be why the team with the highest odds can’t fall lower than No. 3 today.
I know the Mystics won a championship in 2019, so you may think that I’m whining over spilled milk. But that championship required multiple best case scenarios without a top draft pick (and Delle Donne doesn’t count as that for the Mystics).
They made a home run front office hire (Mike Thibault as General Manager and Head Coach), made shrewd selections later in the draft (Emma Meesseman and Natasha Cloud come to mind) and had some luck landing free agents (like Delle Donne in Mystics history).
The Mystics’ rebuild from 2013-19 should be considered an exception on how to build a WNBA championship team, not a traditional approach built around at least one (usually more) surefire top tier draft picks. Without ALL of those things happening, the Mystics would have likely struggled to compete in the WNBA (forget about winning a championship) for an extended period.
What about the Golden State Valkyries, the new WNBA team? Will they be in the lottery?
Expansion teams are generally screwed over in the first year of business by design. The Valkyries will almost definitely be a bad team.
While nothing has been said yet on where the Valkyries’ draft selections will be, we can assume that they will pick AFTER the four lottery teams this year. A similar situation happened with the Atlanta Dream in 2008, their first year of business.
In other words, Paige Bueckers isn’t playing for Golden State as their draft pick. And Golden State will not have the assets to acquire her anyway given that all teams will be allowed to protect a certain number of players. So either way, Bueckers can safely assume that she will not live in the Bay Area next year.
Here’s more on how the expansion draft in 2025 for the Valkyries and 2026 for the Toronto team could affect the Mystics.
The Mystics have a second 2025 first round pick based on the Dream’s position. How did they get it?
Washington acquired that pick during the 2023 WNBA Draft in a trade with the Dallas Wings for Stephanie Soares, the Mystics’ first round draft selection that year. The Wings previously acquired this pick and a 2023 first round pick from the Dream in a trade for Allisha Gray. Keep in mind that Dallas owns their own 2025 first round draft pick based on their own position.
Was this trade worth it? I’d say so because Soares is only averaging 1.3 points and 2.4 rebounds per game for Dallas this season. That said, the Mystics need to make the most out of the pick regardless of where it falls.
Will the Dream likely miss the playoffs?
Currently, Atlanta is just one game behind the Sky for 8th place with about half the season left to go. It can go either way, so it’s in our interest as Mystics fans to root against the Dream, right?
What rank will the Mystics likely have in lottery odds?
It’s hard to say right now, but currently they are second place based on their combined 2023 and 2024 regular season record.
We shall see how these lottery standings look once the Olympic break is upon us!