Stats, analysis, commentary.
Corey Kispert is what he was drafted to be: a three-point shooting specialist, who can do a few other things on offense. He’s become good at attacking closeouts with dribble drives, and he makes the occasional cut. Everything he does on offense is predicated on his ability to shoot threes.
This season, he shot well from deep (38.3%) and launched 11.0 three-point attempts per 100 possessions. The willingness to launch is more important to distorting defenses than the percentage, and it was good that Kispert hit that career high in attempts. In 2023-24, he was top 25 in three-point attempts per possession.
In truth, Kispert shot pretty well from just about everywhere. His effective field goal percentage as a career-best 60.2%. He converted 78.7% of his at-rim attempts, and shot 52.5% from the floater range (3-10 feet). His mid-range shooting (10-16 feet) was meh (42.9%), but he hit 57.1% on long twos.
Kispert is a thoroughly modern player, though — 60.5% of his field goal attempts were threes, and 19.5% were from inside three feet. That’s 80% of his shots coming from the stat goober’s preferred spots on the floor.
So why am I, a certified stat goober, less convinced than seemingly everyone else that Kispert was improved this season?
Kispert is a specialist in an era that demands players do many things with competence. Players like Kispert — outstanding shooters who do little else — once had considerable value. For the right team, he probably still has significant value, at least in the regular season.
But his limitations are ever present. Specifically, he doesn’t rebound, he’s not much of a playmaker, and he’s a poor defender. And teams have to take the whole player.
Much of the “wow Kispert has improved so much” narrative is built on his increase in scoring. There’s less substance than meets the eye, however. His scoring is up because he played more minutes and used more possessions. CORRECTION: As CDKA pointed out in the comments, Kispert’s minutes dropped this season. His per game scoring is up because his usage is up, and NOT because he played more minutes. Apologies for the error, and many thanks to CDKA for pointing it out.
His efficiency dropped this season despite good shooting from the field because he committed more turnovers (a career high), shot a career worst 72.6% from the free throw line, and hit a career low in offensive rebounds.
According to my PPA metric, last season dipped to the lowest mark of Kispert’s career. Here’s his PPA progression:
- 2021-22: 87
- 2022-23: 95
- 2023-24: 80
In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45. PPA is pace neutral and accounts for defense and role. The metric rewards players for doing things that help a team win, and dings them for things that don’t.
Now, 80 isn’t terrible. That’s a potentially useful player in the right role with the right team. It’s improbable that the Wizards will be that team in a timeframe that makes including Kispert in future plans make any sense.
Kispert isn’t a bad player, and he surely has his strengths. The Wizards need everything, and the first step in rebuilding is getting players who do several things well. Specialists are less valuable generally than they once were, and a specialist such as Kispert is wasted in Washington.
With Kispert entering a contract year, this would be a good time to bundle him into a package and trade him for someone younger with promise.
Below my “performance EKG” for Kispert. These ekgs track a player’s production game-by-game throughout the season. The red line is the player’s full season PPA after each to that point in the season. The gray line is a five-game moving average, the blue is a 10-game moving average, and the pink is a 20-game average.
Observations
- As makes sense for a player who derives so much of his value from shooting threes, Kispert’s production swung significantly from game to game. His score in my consistency index was 104. In the consistency index, a lower score means more consistent. Zero would be perfectly consistent — no variation in performance.
- Kispert’s performance rated below replacement level 28 times this season — 35% of his games.
- Kispert had one 20-game stretch that hit average exactly on February 9.
- The idea that Kispert played better late in the season isn’t supported by this analysis. According to the EKG, Kispert’s high water mark this season was an 83 PPA after that game on February 9. In that game he scored 24 points in 24 minutes on 6-14 shooting, and had 6 rebounds, 4 assists and three steals against the Boston Celtics. That tallied to an impressive 335 PPA. His next two games rated in negative territory.