Stats, analysis, commentary. And a performance EKG.
In my first Annual Checkup of the 2025 offseason, I suggested the Washington Wizards may have found a building block in Alex Sarr. He rated below average, but his performance for his age was pretty good, and with normal improvement, he could end up great.
Why am I rehashing? Because — believe it or not — the same is true for Sarr’s countryman Bilal Coulibaly.
Like Sarr, I get it if you felt disappointed in Coulibaly’s performance this season. It was uneven. He shot 28.1% on threes and only 50.0% on twos. My Consistency Index (more on it coming later in the offseason) said he was ever so slightly less consistent than Jordan Poole this season, which is astounding.
Coulibaly’s flaws and weaknesses are evident whether watching or analyzing the numbers. I’ve already mentioned the shooting. His ball handling was iffy, which limits his ability to get to the rim. When he tried to do more offensively, his turnovers went up. He converted at-rim attempts at a high rate (74.9%) this season but had trouble finishing against size.
His 103 offensive rating (points produced per 100 individual possessions) was more than 11 points per 100 possessions below average despite a below average 18% usage rate.
His length and agility are major assets defensively, as is his screen navigation. His lack of strength makes it tough for him to switch onto bigger offensive players.
One other point — his production trended down as the season went on. Part of that was that he started the season playing at a pretty high level. But as you can see in the performance ekg below, that strong start cratered quick and trended down until he got hurt.
Kevin Broom
Red line = rolling full season PPA after each game
Gray line = rolling five-game PPA after each game
Blue line = rolling 10-game PPA after each game
Pink line = rolling 20-game PPA after each game
And yet…he just might be the team’s second bloc de construction.
I know, this may feel like I’m repeating myself…well…I am repeating myself. That’s because many of the points I made about Sarr apply to Coulibaly, who was a contributing NBA players in his second NBA season and doesn’t turn 21 until the end of July!
When I wrote about Sarr, I mentioned by career calculator, which takes a player’s production at a given age and forecasts what his career would look like if he follows the average improvement and decline patterns of “normal” NBA players.
As a 19-year-old rookie, Coulibaly’s score in my PPA metric was a near-replacement level 49. PPA rewards players for things that help a team win, dings them for things that hurt, and includes accounting for pace, defensive impact and role. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
According to the career calculator, a 19-year-old who puts up a 49 PPA would be expected to post a 54 in his second season, a 78 in year three, and a 102 in year four. He’d be expected to peak around 130. Useful, but not close to be a building block.
This season, Coulibaly’s PPA was 75. That changes the outlook for what’s to come. Here’s what the career calculator has for Coulibaly:
- Age 19 — 49 (actual)
- Age 20 — 75 (actual)
- Age 21 — 109
- Age 22 — 141
- Age 23 — 163 (All-Star level)
- Age 24 — 174 (All-NBA conversation)
- Age 25 — 179
- Age 26 — 181 (predicted peak — probable All-NBA level)
- Age 27 — 179
- Age 28 — 176
- Age 29 — 165
- Age 30 — 152
This is the potential career trajectory of a dynamic second or third best player on a very high level team. Sarr’s potential career trajectory is that of a second best player on an elite team.
Now the caveats and equivocations — the career calculator is a guesstimate. The further into the future it goes, the less accurate it’s going to be. It’s contingent on how much hard, smart work Sarr and Coulibaly are willing to put in. And it’s contingent on stuff like whether they can stay healthy and the front office assemble a competent roster and coaching staff around them.
But, based on their performance so far, there’s real reason to think Sarr and Coulibaly could be genuine building blocks in the team’s rebuild. As Sarr and Coulibaly might put it: raison d’espérer.