Stats, analysis, commentary, and a performance EKG
If you’re not rooting for Bub Carrington to have a long and prosperous NBA career, you’re either not a Wizards fan or you have no soul. Those are the only options. I don’t make the rules.*
* Editor’s Note: a) This isn’t a rule. b) It’s entirely made up by Kevin, who in this instance is making “the rules.” c) This isn’t a rule.
Carrington, the Wizards’ other teenage rookie, was tough, feisty, competitive — a gamer in the best sense of the word. He became just the fifth rookie in franchise history to play in 82 games. The others:
- Earl Monroe, 1967-68
- Wes Unseld, 1968-69
- Mitch Kupchak, 1976-77
- Jeff Ruland, 1981-82
Carrington led the NBA in rookie minutes, led the Wizards team in total minutes, and played the ninth most minutes for a rookie in franchise history. Not bad.
At times, Carrington looked great. At others…well…not so great. But, he was the 14th pick in the draft, he’s still just 19 years old (he doesn’t turn 20 until July 21), and he goes by “Bub.”
Also, he became just the third teenage rookie in my database to finish with a 59 for his inaugural season. The other two: Jamal Murray and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That’s a lot to like.
PPA (short for Player Production Average) is my overall rating metric. It rewards players for doing things that help a team win, dings him for things that hurt the ability, and includes accounting for pace, role, and defensive impact. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
Carrington’s 59 PPA indicates he was well below average last season, which is perfectly normal for any rookie, and especially normal for a teen. His high score in my consistency index (more on this coming later in the offseason) shows the wild fluctuations in his production from game-to-game, which is perfectly for a teen in the NBA. His ekg looks like a roller coaster:
Red line = full season PPA after each game
Gray line = rolling five-game average PPA after each game
Blue line = rolling 10-game average PPA after each game
Pink line = rolling 20-game average PPA after each game
The favored narrative about his season is that he improved as it went on. That’s not what I see — his performance swung between highs and lows, and his production was on the upswing over the final 10-12 games.
As would be expected for a teenage rookie, he had a tough time sustaining strong play. He had just two 10-game stretches that rated average or better, and those stretches strongly overlapped.
His offensive rating (points produced per 100 individual possessions) was 104, which was more than 14 points per 100 possessions below league average.
I ran him through my career calculator, which estimates the remainder of a player’s career based on his performance at a given age — assuming average improvement/decline. That 59 PPA at age 19 suggests multiple seasons in the 150+ PPA range with a peak around 157. That’s not building block territory, but it is the level a good starter on a strong team.
In other words, if he works hard and smart, the Wizards may have a piece to the roster puzzle they’re assembling.
At this point, I’m going to take a break from EKGs to start work analyzing this year’s draft.