With the WNBA regular season soon drawing to its conclusion, the Washington Mystics are a lock to make the playoffs and have a puncher’s chance of reaching the Finals. This is the best Mystics team since their 2019 group, which won the league championship.
The 2019 championship team arguably had the best offense in professional basketball history. It scored 115.9 points per 100 possessions — 15.0 points better than league average. For comparison, elite NBA offenses over the years top out around 8-10 points per 100 possessions better than average.
The 2022 Mystics are different, though. They have the WNBA’s best defensive (5.7 points per 100 possessions better than average) and are about average on the offensive end.
Here’s a look at how they’re performing on the key metrics that decide who wins and loses basketball games, and where they rank among the 12 WNBA teams:
- Strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin: +4.31 — 4th in the WNBA
- Offensive rating: 102.7 — 7th
- Defensive rating: 97.4 — 1st
- Pace*: 76.9 — 12th
* Pace has almost nothing to do with winning or losing, but it’s worth note that the Mystics play at the league’s slowest pace.
Four Factors: Offense
- Effective field goal percentage: .498 — 7th
- Turnover percentage: 14.8% — 4th
- Offensive rebound percentage: 22.6% — 7th
- FTM/FGA: .197 — 9th
Four Factors: Defense
- Effective field goal percentage: .483 — 4th
- Turnover percentage: 16.1% — 4th
- Defensive rebound percentage: 79.7% — 1st
- FTM/FGA: .188 — 4th
What these numbers indicate is the Mystics play slow and avoid turnovers, but they’re meh at shooting, offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line. On defense, they’re good across the board — opponents shoot poorly, turn it over, don’t get offensive rebounds, and don’t get to the free throw line. Doing all that without fouling is impressive.
According to the defense part of my Player Production Average metric, the Mystics have several impact defenders, including Myisha Hines-Allen, Elena Delle Donne, Elizabeth Williams and Shakira Austin. Most of the remaining rotation rates as plus defenders — Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Alysha Clark, and Natasha Cloud.
On the offensive end, they were hurt by Delle Donne missing 11 games. She leads the team in usage (25.8%) and efficiency (112 offensive rating — points produced per 100 individual possessions) when she plays. They have four players (Hines-Allen, Rui Machida, Williams and Tianna Hawkins) with at least 250 minutes played an offensive rating below 100.
Hines-Allen ranks third on the team with 23.1 points per 100 team possessions primarily due to a 24.5% usage rate. Her three-point shooting has been solid (35.5% on 76 attempts — league average is 34.2%), but she’s struggled inside the arc (just 43.1% vs. a 48.7% league average), and she’s committed a whopping 4.7 turnovers per 100 team possessions.
Here’s who’s leading the Mystics in various stat categories this season (stats are per 100 team possessions with a minimum of 250 minutes played):
- Points: Elena Delle Donne — 31.8
- Rebounds: Shakira Austin — 15.2
- Assists: Natasha Cloud — 11.8
- Steals: Shatori Walker-Kimbrough — 2.6
- Blocks: Elizabeth Williams — 2.5
- Usage: Delle Donne — 25.8%
- Ortg: Delle Donne — 112
- efg: Delle Donne — 54.8%
- 2pt%: Alysha Clark — 62.2%
- 3pt%: Delle Donne — 40.5%
- FT%: Tianna Hawkins — 94.1%
- True Shooting Percentage: Delle Donne — 59.9%
- Assist-to-turnover ratio: Cloud — 2.55
One thought arises from the numbers — the Mystics might be wise to boost Delle Donne’s usage in the postseason. She’s their best offensive weapon, and she’s maintained efficiency while carrying a heavier usage load than she has this season.
Before I post the Mystics’ PPA scores, here’s a look at the top five in the WNBA in an array of stats (box score stats are per 100 possessions with a minimum of 250 minutes played):
Points
- Breanna Stewart, SEA — 35.9
- A’ja Wilson, LVA — 32.4
- Arike Ogunbowale, DAL — 32.3
- Elena Delle Donne, WAS — 31.8
- Kelsey Plum, LVA — 30.4
Rebounds
- Teaira McCowan, DAL — 18.9
- Monique Billings, ATL — 18.0
- Sylvia Fowles, MIN — 17.9
- Jonquel Jones, CON — 16.6
- A’ja Wilson, LVA — 16.0
Assists
- Courtney Vandersloot, CHI — 12.6
- Natasha Cloud, WAS — 11.8
- Sue Bird, SEA — 11.5
- Sabrina Ionescu, NYL — 10.1
- Chelsea Gray, LVA — 10.1
Steals
- Brittney Sykes, LAS — 3.38
- Rebekah Gardner, CHI — 3.37
- Veronica Burton, DAL — 3.32
- Aari McDonald, ATL — 3.22
- Shey Peddy, PHO — 2.94
Blocks
- Ezi Magbegor, SEA — 3.80
- Awak Kuier, DAL — 3.71
- Liz Cambage, LAS — 3.53
- A’ja Wilson, LVA — 3.49
- Emily Engstler, IND — 3.04
Usage
- Arike Ogunbowale, DAL — 30.0%
- Breanna Stewart, SEA — 29.6%
- Skylar Diggins-Smith, PHO — 28.6%
- Chennedy Carter, LAS — 28.2%
- Aerial Powers, MIN — 27.9%
Note: Three of the top five in usage (Ogunbowale, Carter and Powers) have offensive ratings below 100. With Diggins-Smith a hair below average, Stewart is left as the only player in the usage top five with an above average offensive rating (112).
ORTG
- Julie Allemand, CHI — 121 (12.0% usage)
- Brianna Turner, PHO — 120 (7.6%)
- Brionna Jones, CON — 119 (22.4%)
- Natalie Achonwa, MIN — 118 (17.3%)
- Emma Meesseman, CHI — 117 (19.4%)
PPA (see below for more details)
- Breanna Stewart, SEA — 313
- A’ja Wilson, LVA — 276
- Elena Delle Donne, WAS — 262
- Sylvia Fowles, MIN — 234
- Emma Meesseman, CHI — 231
kWins
kWins uses my PPA metric to estimate total wins contributed this season by each individual player:
- Breanna Stewart, SEA — 7.1
- A’ja Wilson, LVA — 6.4
- Emma Meesseman, CHI — 5.3
- Nneka Ogwumike, LAS — 5.2
- Jackie Young, LVA — 4.8
Player Production Average
PPA credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor. There’s also an accounting for role/position. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45. It usually takes a score of 200 or higher to be part of the MVP conversation.