Let’s take a look at who the best post players are the in 2024 NBA Draft class using data.
The pre-Draft work in my stat-based prospect evaluator tool — Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA for short) is nearly complete. I’m awaiting information from the combine-like event the NBA is hosting in Treviso, Italy this week, and then I might do some additional internet sleuthing and calling of contacts on prospects where I have questions.
I say “might” because my questions typically arise from mismatches between YODA results and consensus draft boards. This year is an exceptional draft for a lot of reasons, including a relatively high number of YODA/consensus mismatches.
The other big reason this is an “exceptional” draft is the dearth of NBA-quality prospects, at least according to my statistical model. This season, I have 16 players with first round grades and another 16 who are close. The first round number could tick up (or down) by a handful depending on Treviso results, but it’s going to be a low number,
For comparison, in the 2023 draft, I had 25 players with first round grades, plus another 16 who were close. In 2022, there were 25 with first round grades, and 11 close. In 2021, it was 22 and 20. In 2020 — the last “bad” draft — it was 17 and 26.
You get the idea.
This is not to say I dislike the draft. The prospects aren’t wowing me, but there are always unimpressive prospects who turn into good NBA players. Few of these guys are fully formed as players, athletes or people, and becoming a good NBA player is about development in all of those areas. I want to find those players, and I think I may have identified a few.
Maybe.
I’ll post a Big Board closer to the draft. Today, let’s take a look at the centers.
YODA has three bigs with draftable grades, all of whom rank high overall in this draft class. All three appear to be good prospects, though each would likely land 4-5 slots lower in a “normal” draft than they do in this one.
This isn’t a rebuttal to anything Matt Modderno wrote on various posts the Washington Wizards should consider drafting with their picks. It’s just a supplement.
And that’s enough preamble.
- Alex Sarr — Teenaged French big who played professionally in Australia last season. Long, skinny, athletic. Good defender who blocks shots (3.4 per 40 minutes last season) and has a raw-but-promising offensive game. This is an archetype that feels familiar, even in the numbers. Top comps in YODA include Jaren Jackson Jr. and Evan Mobley.
- Zach Edey — A massive, gigantic, hulking slab of a human being. The guy measured 7-4 (almost) in his socks, and his wingspan was somehow +7 inches (tied for sixth at the combine for biggest differential between wingspan and height). He was also productive at Purdue and scored okay in the agility drills that are at least somewhat predictive of future NBA success. The knocks: he can’t jump and…something?
- Donovan Clingan — Most of the concern targeted at Edey — too slow, can’t jump — applies to Clingan. He was The Slowest player at the NBA Combine. He tied for the fifth worst vertical score. And yet, he was insanely productive and anchored the defense of a back-to-back NCAA champion.
That’s it for centers with a first-round score. Guys who are close:
- Izan Almansa — Decent enough prospect with good agility who played for the godforsaken G League Ignite last season.
- Yves Missi — Productive inside finisher (61.4% on twos) at Baylor, who didn’t rebound well (just 9.8 per 40 minutes), didn’t block a ton of shots, but did commit a high number of fouls.
- Ryan Kalkbrenner — 22-year old prospect from Creighton. Shot 70% on twos and blocked shots (3.5 per 40 minutes) but didn’t rebound (8.8 per 40).
- Kel’el Ware — Shot well on twos and threes (42.5% on limited three-point attempts) and did a decent job on the boards.
- Ariel Hukporti — Another Australian league big man. This one struggled on offense (shot just 56.3% on twos, attempted no threes, and produced twice as many turnovers as assists), but rebounded and blocked shots. A team could do worse in the second round.
YODA doesn’t “get” the love for Kyle Filipowski (consensus first round pick). The production was okay at Duke last season, but he’s short-armed (relative to height) and had a terrible vertical score at the combine.
Is there a name you’re curious about? Let me know in the comments.