The offense is stagnant due to turnovers, key starters are injured and the team is facing a decline in popularity while the WNBA is otherwise experiencing the opposite.
Yesterday, we discussed seven positive takeaways from the Washington Mystics’ 2024 WNBA season so far. Are they the only takeaways that were positive? No. But they were just some of the many things that were nice to see through the midpoint of the season.
But I also have to state the obvious: a 5-17 record is not quite what I was expecting. What is holding the Mystics back? Let’s get right to those things and more.
The Mystics have lost significantly more games than their team stats otherwise indicate
Washington’s record is 5-17. That record would make you think that they’re getting blown out, (or I’ll define it as losing by 11 or more points) in half of those losses. That’s roughly nine times.
But the reality is that they have only lost four games by 11 points or more. In fact, during that nasty 0-12 start of the season, Washington lost just two games by 11 points or more.
Ultimately, Washington has a Pythagorean win percentage of 37 percent, with an exponent factor of 10, the standard Basketball Reference uses for the WNBA. Out of 22 games, 37 percent of that would by 8 wins (this is known as “expected wins.” And yet Washington has just 5.
It’s one thing to be one or two wins below the Pythagorean win expectations. But with this deficit at three (with half the season to go), it seems to imply that the Mystics are getting outcoached, which fans have complained about all season.
The offensive efficiency is terrible due to turnovers and rebounding
Yesterday, we mentioned that the Mystics’ three point shooting and assists are major positives and among the best in the WNBA. These things would indicate that Washington would have an above average offense, right?
Nope. They have the 11th best offensive rating in the WNBA. Their offensive efficiency is 99.2 points per 100 possessions. What is amiss?
Turnovers and rebounds, which factor into offensive efficiency.
The Mystics have the second highest turnover total and the lowest total rebounds to this point in the WNBA season. I know that not every team has played the same amount of games, but the Mystics have played 22, more than any other team for games played through July 7.
Who are the Mystics’ worst culprits with turnovers? They are Julie Vanloo and Jade Melbourne, who have turnover percentages of 27.8 and 24.1 percent, respectively. Of the two, Vanloo’s turnover percentage is really, really holding her back, giving her an individual offensive rating of 83. The stats are making it seem like she couldn’t be replaced soon enough.
Granted, Vanloo would have been a reserve on this team if Brittney Sykes weren’t injured. Vanloo is still dishing 10.6 assists per 100 possessions which is good. But those 10.6 assists per 100 possessions are also overshadowed by her 6.7 turnovers in that same rate.
And regarding rebounding, the Mystics don’t have a consistent starter who is cleaning up the boards given that Shakira Austin has been out for much of the season due to a hip injury from last season.
The Mystics aren’t getting to the free throw line enough
The Mystics are last in the WNBA for free throws made and attempted. And again, the Mystics have also played more games than any other team in the league through July 7.
Key starters are getting injured
Austin has been out for most games this season. And same goes for Sykes, who would have been the starting point guard instead of Vanloo if leg injuries didn’t get in the way. And if losing Austin and Sykes wasn’t bad enough, Karlie Samuelson, the Mystics’ new shooting guard, is out through the Olympic break due to a broken hand.
Having Ariel Atkins back is great, but it’s not enough when three regular starters are out for long stretches of the season.
The Mystics are irrelevant in this year’s WNBA storylines
When we first started writing about the Mystics on a regular basis 10 years ago, there were several commenters who didn’t want the team covered at all. It also didn’t help that the Mystics were rebuilding around many young draft picks, but none of them were surefire superstars from Day 1.
Fast forward 10 years and our site is one of the top performing sites for Mystics content. The Mystics did sign a superstar forward in Elena Delle Donne in 2017. She and Emma Meesseman, one of Washington’s draft picks led Washington to the 2019 WNBA championship. But since then, the Mystics have slowly declined until this season when the bottom seemed to fall out with that 12 game losing streak to open 2024.
The WNBA has also gradually become more popular in the last 10 years. But 2024 has been a special one for the league. Popularity significantly increased this year with Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark and Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese coming into the league along with their rivalry back in college. TV ratings are up. Social media discourse is up. And fans are bickering about whether Clark especially should have been on Team USA.
All of this is great for the league and the All-Star Game will be held in just a week and a half. But no Mystics players will be in the game, partly due to their record, and also partly because they’re rebuilding without a clear superstar, just like 10 years ago. I’m also still disappointed that Ariel Atkins, who played for Team USA in the 2020 Olympics, the 2022 FIBA Women’s World Cup AND the Olympic Qualifying Tournament, got snubbed from the team.
In short, while the WNBA is doing better this year than last, the Mystics aren’t, even though they did make over $1 million in ticket sales for the June 7 game against Clark’s Fever.
Hopefully, the Mystics get another superstar and gets back into the championship conversation sooner rather than later. But until then, there will be some lean times ahead here in the nation’s capital.