Having Paige Bueckers is a great thing. But it’s not a necessity in my opinion.
Thank you for your responses to this week’s SB Nation Reacts survey. Our Washington Mystics survey results are below.
In this week’s survey, we asked the following: Do you feel the Mystics MUST have the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft to be a championship contender from 2026-2030? After 200 responses, we saw that you were a house divided. Forty-eight percent of you believe that the team must have the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft to contend from 2026-30, while the rest of you don’t think that’s the case. (Sorry for the typo on mentioning SB Nation Reacts’ X account in advance.)
Here is our 2nd @sbnrecats survey question, this time on the Mystics. In this one, 48% of respondents believe that the Mystics must get a No. 1 pick to contend by 2030. pic.twitter.com/n5rn1HsVOl
— Bullets Forever (@BulletsForever) October 11, 2024
Why would nearly half of Mystics fans who responded to this survey believe that having the No. 1 overall pick in 2025 is a necessity? Here are some of the possible reasons:
- Paige Bueckers — The UConn guard is almost guaranteed to be a Mystic should Washington get the No. 1 pick. She will be the Mystics franchise player and would stay with the team in 2026 as a protected player from the Toronto and Portland expansion drafts. She also would stay with the team for the free agent frenzy when all 15 teams go after all the veteran players (most of the WNBA’s rosters) because practically no one on such a non-rookie scale contract is signed beyond 2025.
- Fans would go to ESA (and the few Capital One Arena games) to see Bueckers and the Mystics more than to see other WNBA superstars — When a WNBA team gets a franchise player, especially a rookie, this will generate tons of local interest on the home team. Hopefully that momentum remains after the rookie season.
- The new WNBA markets will be attractive for free agents right away due to the lack of players. Having Bueckers acts as a counter to that — Toronto is a world class city and will be a comfortable place to live in. It could attract more international players since it isn’t an American WNBA team, sort of like the Toronto Raptors are in the NBA. Portland has long been a major hub for women’s professional sports, especially soccer in the last 20 years. Players will want to be in supportive markets like these. I’m not saying Washington is a bad market for free agents in 2026. But Toronto and Portland could be championship contenders right away unlike the Golden State Valkyries next year. If Bueckers is already on the Mystics, playing alongside her as a mentor or another star becomes attractive in-and-of-itself.
- Washington may become a less attractive market for players, depending on the outcome of the U.S. Elections — The WNBA is the most socially progressive professional sports league in the United States. Players embrace various social causes, such as racial equality, voting access and women’s reproductive rights to name a few. If Donald Trump wins the Presidential race against U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Federal Government and D.C. will become less friendly to those causes next year on. And perhaps some players may not feel welcome in Washington. We already touched on these subjects with the Wizards recently. So to tie this back to the original question, having Bueckers gives the Mystics a major counterweight against being located in a less progressive city. We see that with the Indiana Fever.
If you’re wondering MY opinion on this question, here’s my take. The Mystics don’t need Paige Bueckers to contend from 2026-30. While I certainly think she is nice to have (and it’s long overdue that the Mystics have a must-see rookie star), the WNBA of 2026 is going to be a LOT different than any year before it. Most of you concur. Here’s why I don’t think Bueckers is a necessity:
- Not every superstar is going to just two teams — At the end of day, all the superstars want to get paid, and will get paid. The Mystics will very likely get one veteran superstar or someone real close to it.
- There will be talent dilution — I think the era of three or four superstars on a team is over. The WNBA is going to be a 15 team league in 2026, which is 25 percent bigger than it is now. On top of that, we may see larger rosters per team. That further dilutes the concentration of talent. That make
- If Harris wins, don’t be surprised to see her be more active locally — If D.C. becomes less attractive because Trump goes back to the White House, it can be more attractive because Harris stays in and moves her office a few doors down (she is the incumbent VP after all). While she hasn’t attended a Mystics game yet, numerous players are supporting her. And players who choose to be more socially active may appreciate being closer to the center of power, which Washington is in the middle of right?
- The Mystics have experience contending and winning a championship without depending on top stars — General Manager Mike Thibault constructed the 2019 championship team without needing a No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 overall pick falling into his lap (so Elena Delle Donne and Kristi Toliver don’t count). His best homegrown players wer Emma Meesseman, a No. 19 overall pick in 2013, Natasha Cloud was a No. 14 overall pick in 2015, and Ariel Atkins was a No. 7 overall pick in 2018. All three were major contributors to the 2019 championship team. Future teams in 2026 on will likely depend more on free agency and savvy draft selections to win their championships than past ones. So I think the construction strategy of the 2019 WNBA championship team was ahead of its time. I will elaborate more on this in a future piece.
That’s what I have. Sound off in the comments below!
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