While many aren’t happy with how the Washington Wizards‘ season has started, no one can deny it’s been an excellent start to one of their last tanking seasons. At 1-13, Washington currently has the worst win percentage in the NBA at .071. However, the NBA lottery hasn’t been so nice to bottom-barrel teams lately, and it’s the unfortunate dark side to a rebuild showing nice promise.
The Dark Side Of The Washington Wizards’ Strong Tank
Currently sitting at 15th in the Eastern Conference, it’s safe to say Washington will get a lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. With that being said, the lottery hasn’t played nice to teams who choose to play for losses, and Washington may have to deal with some more bad luck this upcoming offseason.
Recent Lottery Failures
The NBA lottery is designed for the worst teams in the league to get better odds at the number one pick. However, odds are exactly that, only percentages. In the last five NBA drafts, the worst team overall has not received the first pick. Additionally, the worst team in the league hasn’t received a number one overall pick since DeAndre Ayton was drafted first overall by the Phoenix Suns in the 2018 draft. On average, the worst team in the league has gotten a draft pick of 3.7 since the 2020 draft. With that being said, let’s flip the standard.
In each of the last two drafts, the first pick went to a team that qualified for the Play-In. Last season, it was the Dallas Mavericks. They finished as the 10th seed, with a 1.8% chance to get the number one pick, and drafted Cooper Flagg. The year before that, it was the Atlanta Hawks, who had a 3% chance to land number one overall. With that pick, they took Zaccharie Risacher.
Washington’s Lottery Woes
Washington themselves have had some up-and-down luck with the lottery in recent years. Their only piece of luck was Alex Sarr, who they drafted in the 2024 class. However, their luck has arguably been some of the worst in the league.
Since the 1999-2000 season, Washington has had a record of 853-1256 (.404). With that record, they’ve qualified for the lottery 17 times, with an average pre-draft position of 6.11 in those drafts. Out of said drafts, the Wizards managed to stay in their pre-draft position 10 times. However, what hurts the most is when you look at the classes they’ve moved.
Out of the ten drafts remaining in the time frame, Washington has moved down more than up. Out of those ten drafts, Washington has moved down in seven of them. Five of those classes: 2000, 2004, 2009, 2011, and 2012, had so many franchise-altering talents among them. Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis were all picked before Washington had a chance to grab them.
In Those Drafts…
In 2000, Washington opted to trade their pick. Looking back, it was a smart play as this class ended up producing only solid rotational pieces.
However, in the 2004 class, Washington fell from their pre-draft position of third down to fifth. The front office did a great job in drafting Devin Harris. However, they missed out on drafting Ben Gordon, who the Chicago Bulls took third overall.
Arguably, the most unfortunate drop was in 2009, when they dropped again from third to fifth. This class in particular is one of the most electric since 2000. Featuring players like Griffin, Tyreke Evans, and future Hall of Famers in Harden and Stephen Curry. The Wizards ended up trading their pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who drafted Ricky Rubio fifth overall.
In 2011, Washington was up for the fourth pick, just a year after drafting now Wizards legend John Wall. They dropped from number four to number six. At four, the Cleveland Cavaliers took Tristan Thompson, and the Wizards made the bold decision to take Jan Vesselý. While it was a monumental mishap for the players taken after Vesselý, Washington missed out on Thompson and Jonas Valančiūnas, who was picked fifth.
Lastly, the 2012 class didn’t hurt them too badly. They dropped one spot from second to third, and still managed to pick Bradley Beal, while the then Charlotte Bobcats took a chance on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at second overall.
Washington’s Latest Drops
The remaining two classes, the 2019 and 2025 classes, haven’t had much time to prove anything. However, Washington dropped a combined seven spots in these drafts. In turn, players like Coby White, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe, and Kon Knueppel were all taken before Washington had a chance to get them. Washington already traded their 2019 pick, Rui Hachimura, but seems confident in their latest lottery player, Tre Johnson.
The Last Word
All this to say, tread lightly on Washington’s draft hopes. The Washington Wizards’ tank haven’t had much success outside of Sarr and Wall this century. Washington could easily have some good fortune, but history tends to repeat itself. So, Washington could easily find itself once again falling down the lottery.
Featured Image: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
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