Stats, analysis, commentary.
The Wizards got blown out for a third straight game, this time by the New York Knicks. The final margin was a deceptively close 16, courtesy of some garbage time “heroics” and a buzzer-beating three from Anthony Gill. When Wes Unseld Jr. conceded, the Wizards were down 21.
Washington trailed by as much as 26 in the game and never led. They were down 20 at the half, trimmed the lead to as little as five…and then ran out of gas. There was no point in the game — even when as close as five — that the Wizards felt like a genuine threat to win. Washington’s third quarter run was more a case of the Knicks needing pull their collective heads out of their collective butts and start playing a bit more seriously. Did Nenê give a halftime speech?
While the Wizards got taken to school by Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle, the Wizards did some encouraging things. Deni Avdija played well, the Wizards held their own on the boards, and Jordan Poole actually tried on 3-4 defensive possessions. Gotta take the “wins” where you can get them.
Musings & Observations
- Avdija played hard and well despite the Knicks sitting on his right hand and trying to force him left. He was aggressive pushing the ball in transition and found ways to get back to his right hand for finishes. He scored 23 on just 13 shots, and dealt 6 assists. The only real negative was four turnovers, mostly a result of trying passes that didn’t make a lot of sense. Even so, he posted a 129 offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) on a 25.6% usage rate. That’s excellent.
- Poole had yet another atrocious offensive game. At one point, Knicks broadcaster (and Hall of Famer) Walt Frazier described Poole as being “in disarray.” He at least tried some on defense in the second half, which is a welcome change of pace.
- Corey Kispert somehow committed four turnovers in 15 minutes. After one, Frazier said, “And more blundering from the Wizards.” Ouch.
- Kyle Kuzma seemed intent on shooting every time he touched the ball and exhibited little interest in other aspects of the game like rebounding or playmaking. He finished with 27 points on 21 shots and an offensive rating of just 106. He had two rebounds, two assists, and three turnovers.
- Rough game for Bilal Coulibaly — 4 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists…and 3 turnovers and 3 fouls. It was still a good learning experience. He defended both Brunson and Randle on one possession and showed good defensive screen navigation throughout the game.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
