Stats, analysis, commentary
It was a nearly perfect tank loss. The Wizards sprinted to an early lead, faltered in the second quarter, cratered in the third, and then battled back in the fourth to lose by just three to the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Wizards seemed to have a solid game plan against Giannis Antetokounmpo — playing with a sore calf — who bumbled his way to 7 turnovers and 6 fouls in just 19 minutes. Some of that seemed to just be “one of those nights” for Giannis. Much of it seemed to stem from timely double teams and traps that pushed the Greek Freak into some bad decisions or led to sloppy ball handling.
The Bucks got by with an “everyone eats” offense while Giannis sat with foul trouble. Brook Lopez scored 18 points on 8 shots while grabbing 9 rebounds and anchoring the defense. Former Wizards guard Ryan Rollins had an efficient 15 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Kevin Porter Jr., beloved by former players because of his alleged “talent” had 12 points, 3 assists, and 3 steals in 24 minutes.
Former Wizards great Kyle Kuzma had a decent game — 19 points on 19 shots, 8 rebounds, 5 assists.
The Bucks were missing Damian Lillard (hamstring “maintenance”) and Bobby Portis (suspension).
Bright Spots for the Wizards
- Corey Kispert hit 4-7 from three.
- Alex Sarr was aggressive on offense — 22 points on 8-19 shooting in just 26 minutes.
- Marcus Smart showed defensive leadership during his 17 minutes of action. He communicated incessantly on the defensive end and worked to make sure his younger teammates were in the right place at the right time.
- Khris Middleton was pretty good at times in his Wizards debut. He won a late-game jump ball and then nailed a three that put Washington in position to possibly win.
Amusing moment: in the first quarter, 33-year-old Khris Middleton — in his 13th NBA season — lined up in the wrong spot. He was redirected to the right place by 21-year-old rookie Kyshawn George.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented. There’s also a column showing league average in each of the categories to give a sense of each team’s performance relative to the rest of the league this season.
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.