Stats, commentary, analysis
The Washington Wizards kept things close for the first 21 minutes. Unfortunately, the NBA game lasts 48 minutes. The Portland Trail Blazers went on a tear to enter halftime with a 10-point lead, and then ran their lead as high as 24 early in the fourth quarter. Washington made one of those hey how ‘bout that? runs to slice Portland’s lead to 11 with two minutes to play, but the outcome was never in doubt. The Trail Blazers coasted home with a 15-point victory.
For Washington, playing youngsters and securing a loss seemed to be the primary goals. Jordan Poole and Khris Middleton started the game and then sat the entire second half. The team was -5 in their 10:31 of playing time, so it wasn’t as if they were playing great. Richaun Holmes didn’t play.
Was this tanking? Of course it was.
More evidence?
- AJ Johnson, who looks like he’s 13 years old, started and played 35 minutes.
- Colby Jones, who entered the game with 324 career minutes over the past two seasons — including just two with the Wizards — played 25 minutes.
- Alex Sarr, who picked up right where he left off against the Denver Nuggets, played fewer minutes than Tristan Vukcevic, and Jaylen Martin. Sarr got just 21 seconds more playing time than Anthony Gill.
At this point, tanking is critical for the Wizards. The Utah Jazz got serious about losing and currently have the NBA’s worst record. The Wizards have some work to do if they want to have the best odds for a high pick. The league’s three losing-est teams have the same odds for the top pick, but the lowest a team with the worst record can pick is fifth.
Bright Spots for the Wizards
- Alex Sarr scored 20 points and grabbed 4 offensive boards in just 22 minutes of action. He also had 3 assists, a steal and two blocks. This was one of the better games he’s played this season — 33.2% usage and an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 131.
- Jaylen Martin made good use of his 28 minutes. He rebounded well, did some playmaking, and came up with a couple steals. He’ll need to cut back on the turnovers, but it was still a solid performance from the youngster.
- Tristan Vukcevic grabbed 8 rebounds and had a steal and 2 blocks. He shot decently — 6-13 from the floor, and 3-6 from three — but his overall efficiency was dragged down by 3 turnovers.
- Jordan Poole played contained and disciplined basketball in his brief first half appearance. He posted an ortg of 145 on a usage rate of 23.6%.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented. There’s also a column showing league average in each of the categories to give a sense of each team’s performance relative to the rest of the league this season.
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.