The Washington Wizards guard had his worst season in 2023-24. But it wasn’t as bad as some might think and he is still playing like he did earlier in his career with the Golden State Warriors
Last season was the worst of Washington Wizards guard Jordan Poole’s NBA career. I almost used “young” to qualify “career,” but…well…in truth it wasn’t much worse than his final season with the Golden State Warriors, and his career is more middle aged than young.
Don’t get me wrong — it was the worst season of his career. Just not by as wide a margin as you might think. Here are some key stats per 100 possessions from this season and last:
- Assists: 7.1 and 6.8
- Steals: 1.2 and 1.7
- Turnovers: 4.8 and 3.7
- Fouls: 4.1 and 4.9
- Rebounds: 4.3 and 4.2
- Points: 27.0 and 32.2
Which is which? I already don’t remember, and it doesn’t really matter. I could extend the randomization back another year or even two, and the numbers are telling a consistent story. That story: Poole’s production pattern and style of play are basically settled. He hasn’t made a significant change in at least three seasons.
Last season, the only thing he did significantly different was miss shots and use fewer possessions than he did with the Warriors. Maybe his efficiency bounces back up next season (regression to the mean), as it did (somewhat) for a stretch at the end of the season. He still finished the season about 13 points per 100 possessions below average in efficiency. His combination of usage (which was down from previous seasons but still high) and efficiency placed him among the league’s worst offensive players last season.
And offense is supposed to be his strength.
Perhaps Brian Keefe has a way to use Poole that can make him more useful on the offensive end. And perhaps Keefe can get Poole to buy into executing a defensive system for more than a handful of possessions per game.
Put me in Camp Dubious, however. He has three years and $96 million remaining on his contract, and there’s little incentive to make major changes to how he plays for at least another season or two.
That could be cynicism. It could also just be realism. Some players sign big contracts and become hellbent on proving they’re worth every penny and more. Some…don’t. Nothing I saw from Poole last season makes be believe he’s in the “gonna prove I’m worth it” group.
Plus, he’s already at an age (entering his age 25 season) where he’s more likely to plateau around his current level than to reach a new high. Players like him in the historical record tended to peak earlier. He’s had one season average or better, and that was two seasons ago (age 22 season). He played worse each of the past two seasons.
Just as Poole’s category numbers tell a story, so do his results from my statistical doppelganger machine.† His statistically-generated comps are inefficient guards who have their uses in the right situation but are below average overall.
† The Statistical Doppelganger Machine compares player seasons going back to the 1977-78 season, a year chosen entirely at random and having nothing whatsoever to do with the last time this moribund franchise won a championship.
Here are Poole’s “most similar” player seasons, according to the statistical doppelganger machine:
- Dennis Schroder, Oklahoma City Thunder, 2018-19 — One of Schroder’s worst seasons. He bounced back to near average in subsequent seasons. Has never been as good as the idea of him.
- Dion Waiters, Miami Heat, 2016-17 (also 2013-14 and 2017-18) — Old heads may remember when folks were marveling at how great Waiters was playing and how #HeatCulture had resurrected his career. In truth, he was still playing terrible.
- Dillon Brooks, Memphis Grizzlies, 2020-21 — Offensively problematic because of his profound inefficiency and refusal to shoot less. Brooks made up for some of the offensive damage with defense, though he fouled so much, he was somewhat problematic at that end too. Poole doesn’t contribute much on defense, though he also fouls a lot.
- J.R. Smith, Denver Nuggets, 2004-05 — Talented. Athletic. Teeny-tiny basketball IQ.
- Kendrick Nunn, Miami Heat, 2019-20 — This was Nunn’s rookie year (age 24 season). He was decent the following season for the Heat, and then the injuries set in.
- Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls, 2005-06 — The Jordan Poole of his era, except of course that Gordon was a high draft pick. He had two seasons a little better than average, and his career cratered at age 26.
- Trey Burke, Utah Jazz, 2014-15
- Rashad McCants, Minnesota Timberwolves, 2007-08
- Bogdan Bogdanovic, Sacramento Kings, 2018-19
- Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns, 2015-16
Just outside the top 10 are two season from Jordan Crawford.