Which players are the closest to the Wizards guard?
I’m probably going to end up compressing my traditional player-by-player offseason statistical doppelganger series because I have stared into the abyss, and I don’t want to be responsible for the extended anguish some of the more sensitive Washington Wizards fans.
Don’t worry — I’m going to make you suffer through some of my pain. I just don’t think everyone needs a full dose of Wizards sturm and drang.
Now, the doppelganger machine isn’t high science. Overall, it does a reasonably good of showing a player’s overall style and quality of production. That said, it was built for offseason fun and hijinks, and…well…the results this year with this roster are not fun. Maybe it’ll be more fun to look back in five years and chortle about how off target the doppelganger machine was.
While I’ll end up lumping players together, today I want to focus on one guy — the one player they’re bringing back from last year’s roster who has a chance of being a franchise building block — French wing Bilal Coulibaly.
Note: I’d be more receptive to the idea of Tristan Vukcevic as a franchise building block if the team hadn’t made him a free agent and then re-signed him to a two-way contract. Sure, he could still become a great player. It’s just not a signal that the franchise’s decision-makers have a high view of his potential that they engaged in this transaction rigmarole rather than just keeping him on an NBA contract.
It’s fair to say Coulibaly’s rookie season was somewhat disappointing. Sure, he was just 19 years old. Sure, he showed flashes of athleticism and ability. Sure, he competed on defense. Sure, teenagers playing at a high level are relatively rare in NBA history.
Still. It’s not outrageous to have some disappointment that he wasn’t one of rare teens to be good. I mean, of the seven teenage rookies who played at least 500 minutes last season, Coulibaly ranked fourth in my PPA metric (PPA accounts for pace, defense and role — in PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45).
Here’s the seven:
- Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks — PPA: 136
- GG Jackson II, Memphis Grizzlies — 80
- Cam Whitmore, Houston Rockets — 73
- Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards — 49
- Nick Smith Jr., Charlotte Hornets — 27
- Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers — 24
- Rayan Rupert, Portland Trail Blazers — 22
Not exactly an impressive 2023 draft for Portland, huh?
Does it matter? Shouldn’t we give kids like Coulibaly time to adapt to the NBA, build their bodies, and work on the skills they’ll need? A) Yes, of course. And B) Performance when young — even for teen rookies — matters because the players who end up having the best careers are usually good when young and then get better.
The top teens in the PPA database include names like Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Tracy McGrady, Jarrett Allen, Jayson Tatum, LaMelo Ball, Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh, and LeBron James.
Teen rookies in Coulibaly’s production range include Ricky Davis, J.R. Smith, Ersan Ilyasova (which is a better name than some might think), Shaun Livingston, Kira Lewis Jr., and Devin Booker. Teen rooks with a worse PPA include Zach LaVine, RJ Barrett, Malik Monk, and Al Harrington (which basically ends the list of useful to semi-useful players).
As you may have noticed, the “worse than” list includes some good players. Having an unimpressive rookie years isn’t a death sentence. It means there’s a lot of work to do.
The biggest concern I have about Coulibaly’s rookie season was his combination of low usage (14.2% usage rate) and low efficiency (103 points produced per 100 individual possessions used — about 12 points per 100 possessions below average).
As I wrote a few times before last season, the usage benchmark for teenage rookies was 15%. Not a single teen rookie went on to greatness without at least surpassing a 15% usage rate.
My theory on that benchmark is that it’s a marker for a guy trying to make plays. Which leads me to my other big concern, which was Coulibaly’s penchant for disappearing. There’s deferring to more established teammates, and there’s passivity. I fear that he strayed into the latter, and I hope it isn’t a signal of what’s to come.
While it may not sound like it, I continue to think Coulibaly can become an elite player. But I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have concerns about his rookie year. He should be able to defend well enough to have a role on a good team, but he’ll need to improve dramatically at every meaningful skill to become a quality offensive contributor.
He’ll be bucking history, but…there’s at least a chance.
Here are his top 10 comps from the statistical doppelganger machine:
- Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls — I would categorize Williams as a bust based on his draft position. The Bulls gave him a five-year contract at $18 million per year.
- Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers
- Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons
- Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors — Part of the original lineup of death, Barnes has never been much better than average, and somehow still keeps getting paid maximum dollars.
- Isaac Okoro, Cleveland Cavaliers
- Maurice Harkless, Orlando Magic
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks — This is the dream comp for Coulibaly. Low usage (15.5%) and inefficient as a rookie. Then he grew and worked and became an all-time great.
- Justise Winslow, Miami Heat — Disappointing when healthy, and he was seldom healthy.
- Josh Okogie, Minnesota Timberwolves
- Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves — Somewhat of a dream comp. McDaniels has become an elite defender. He was even lower usage (12.0%) but much closer to average efficiency (-4 points per 100 possessions relative to average) than Coulibaly.
Others outside the top 10 who are at least interesting:
- Cam Reddish — predictably a busty
- Josh Green — limited role player
- Josh Hart — interesting role player who’s a tough defender and rebounder
- Marcus Smart — got good enough offensively to stay on the court and win Defensive Player of the Year