Stats, analysis, commentary
An epically bad Washington Wizards season is in the books. By winning percentage, this was the second worst team in franchise history — its 22.0% winning percentage outpaced only by the 2023-24 squad’s 18.3%.
By scoring margin (or scoring margin adjusted for strength of schedule) this was the weakest team in franchise history. Other worsts?
- Worst offensive rating relative to league average: -7.7 (second worst was the 2012-13 Wizards at -5.7)
- Worst defensive rating relative to league average: -4.6 (second worst was the 2023-24 Wizards at -4.3).
This year’s squad spent much of the season chasing history, and they got there in some respects. Their handful of wins later in the season pulled them out of the discussion for worst ever teams going by winning percentage. They finished tied for 54th worst ever.
At -12.1 points per game, their adjusted scoring margin is third worst in league history. Only three other teams ever cracked -12.0 or worse:
- 1992-93 Dallas Mavericks: -14.7 — 11-71
- 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats: -13.9 — 7.59
- 1970-71 Cleveland Cavaliers: -12.0 — 15-67
The above is chronicled because a) it’s an important level set for where the team is, and b) it’s good to know and have written down somewhere to celebrate when the team is good again.
And yes, despite a very bad season with some brutal basketball and numbing losses, the team took some positive steps towards one day becoming good again. The feel-good rhetoric from general manager Will Dawkins wasn’t just a team exec selling the future. Even a grouchy old curmudgeon like me feels some optimism. Maybe — just maybe — the Wizards will become good enough to make a deep postseason and contend for a championship while I’m still young enough to enjoy it.
Here are some of the reasons I’m optimistic despite the horrendous season.
While acknowledging that injuries caused some minutes to be given instead of earned, Dawkins praised head coach Brian Keefe for giving players opportunities to play through mistakes while providing accountability. Let’s put some numbers to that. Here’s the team’s top five in minutes:
- Bub Carrington, age 19 — 2,458
- Jordan Poole, age 25 — 2,001
- Bilal Coulibaly, age 21 — 1,948
- Alex Sarr, age 19 — 1,814
- Kyshawn George, age 21 — 1,802
The 25-year-old Corey Kispert was sixth in minutes. Justin Champagnie (age 23) was seventh.
As Dawkins pointed out, this was the first time in two decades a trio of rookies (Carrington, Sarr, and George) got 1,800+ minutes. The team also set a record for most starts given to players age 21 or less.
Now, none of these youngsters played great. As you’ll see in the Player Production Average (PPA) table below, all of the 21-and-under crew rated below league average. That’s mostly okay — they were fine for their age, and it’s reasonable to think all could at minimum be contributors to a good team in the future.
I’ll be writing more about this in the weeks ahead, but the key takeaway is that the level of play from the team’s youngsters provides encouraging signals about their NBA futures.
While much of what Dawkins said in his press conference was fine, some was Monumental claptrap.
For example, the team playing at a fast pace for a second straight year — meaningless. Good teams play fast and slow. So do bad teams. What matters is efficiency. And the Wizards were dead last in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.
That the Wizards became the first team ever to have three rookies make 100+ thress is similarly useless. That’s a function of playing time (we’ve already covered that part) and the game’s evolution that encourages players to shoot threes. Put this one in the “hey, how ‘bout that” category.
Probably not meaningful: Dawkins said Kyshawn George was number one among rookies in on/off differential. While the stat is correct, the on-court number (-9.6) was still horrendous, the “positive” differential was probably not caused by George (his individual production was well below average), and he missed three key games: a 36-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks, a 28-point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, and the 53-point loss to the Indiana Pacers.
More meaningful: Dawkins pointing to the team reaching 10th in three-point attempt rate. While they shot the second worst percentage from deep, the process shift to taking more threes is important.
Another key process stat Dawkins mentioned: Washington was eighth in shots contested and opponent two-point percentage went from 28th last season to 19th this year. The Wizards still have a long ways to go on the defensive end, but contesting shots is the best place to start. (As I’ve written many times previously, defense in the NBA is mostly about making the other team miss. To be clear, the Wizards are NOT making the other team miss, but they are at least contesting. Over time, the misses should come — especially as they continue to upgrade the roster.)
Speaking of roster upgrades, Dawkins said the team’s physical profile for defensive players are Sarr and Coulibaly — long, agile, and switchable. That’s a good prototype to build a good defense.
Last point on Dawkins’ presser — I liked his message to players that the offseason is a time for everyone to get better. He said he told them they have 170 days from the end of the season to the start of training camp, and that he challenged them to be different players when they come back.
The Wizards will need good fortune to become a title contender from where they are now. Dawkins and Michael Winger made some moves to add draft assets, but their not well-stocked with extra first round picks going forward. Ideally, they’ll hit The Lottery and enter next season with Cooper Flagg. Wherever they pick, Dawkins will need to nail it — find players who can contribute to a winning situation over the next 8-10 years, or be traded for players or picks who can.
It won’t be easy, but with good drafting, deft moves, and internal improvement, it’s at least possible. And that’s actually a step forward for this franchise.
Player Production Average: 2024-25 Washington Wizards
Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt the cause (missed shots, turnovers, fouls, ineffective defense). PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.
PPA weighs a player’s performance per possession against that of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the values for statistical categories float a bit season-to-season based on league performance.
PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. Beginning with the 2019-20 season, I added a position/role adjustment designed to reflect how roles and on-court positioning affect individual abilities to produce certain stats.
In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
- Khris Middleton — 14 games with Washington — PPA: 126. Acquired at the trade deadline in a deal that netted the Wizards a conditional future first round pick, Middleton played just 309 minutes for the Wizards, and he was actually pretty good. As in, Milwaukee would have been better if they’d kept Middleton instead of trading him for Kyle Kuzma.
- Jordan Poole — 68 games — PPA: 118. Second best season of Poole’s career (the best was three seasons ago when he was on the Golden State Warriors team that won a championship). His offensive efficiency was still subpar (-4.2 relative to average), but he’s competitive, plays through injuries that sideline a lot of colleagues (he probably would have played more games if the team had been competing for anything) and seemed to take on a leadership role throughout the season.
- Justin Champagnie — 62 games — PPA: 114. Is PPA saying Champagnie was the team’s third most productive player this season? Yep. He earned his way from a two-way deal to an NBA contract with efficient offense, rebounding, and defense. He looks like a versatile rotation forward for a good team.
- Richaun Holmes — 31 games — PPA: 111. He didn’t play much, but when he did, it was pretty good. Holmes’ contract for next season is non-guaranteed. He did enough to make it a certainty he’ll be in the NBA somewhere next season, even if it’s not Washington.
- Malcolm Brogdon — 24 games — PPA: 100. No surprise here. Brogdon’s been moving around despite being a good player and a great person because of his high salary and frequent injuries.
- Alex Sarr — 67 games — PPA: 77. Don’t get discouraged by the below average PPA, the poor offensive efficiency, or the relatively paltry rebounds (11.3 per 100 possessions) — this was an encouraging rookie year. Much of what seems “wrong” to my eye (and analysis) is that he’s not strong or experienced enough to get at-rim shots (which he converted at an above average 69.5%) so he settles for floater-range attempts instead. That’s to be expected for a 19-year-old rookie — and likely to change.
- Bilal Coulibaly — 59 games — PPA: 75. I felt somewhat disappointed by Coulibaly’s season until I ran him through my career forecaster and saw what his production at age 20 suggests for his future. He has LOTS of work to do on his body and his game. But he’s 20! At worst, he looks to be a plus defender for a good team.
- Colby Jones — 15 games — PPA: 68. Just 385 minutes for the 22-year-old. He had stretches where he looked like a potential rotation-level wing…and others where he looked awful. He did enough to merit a training camp and preseason look next season.
- Marcus Smart — 15 games — PPA: 66. Another trade deadline veteran acquisition. Smart’s a tough defender who had some nice moments in a Wizards uniform. His most important contribution was likely the competitive mentality and veteran accountability he brought. Don’t be shocked if he’s playing elsewhere next season.
- Tristan Vukcevic — 35 games — PPA: 65. Their second-round pick in 2024, Vukcevic is a 21-year-old big on a two-way contract. His shooting touch (and range) are genuine NBA assets. The rest of his game? Who knows? He did enough to be worth at least another training camp look. He has to commit to working on his body and all-around game.
- Bub Carrington — 82 games — PPA: 59. At 19-years-old, Carrington led the team in minutes. His performance was up and down, which is completely normal for a 19-year-old rookie. Overall, I share the general feeling of optimism about Carrington while acknowledging (like all the team’s youngsters) he needs tons of work on his body and his game.
- Corey Kispert — 61 games — PPA: 57. Kispert got much praise from the Monumental broadcast for improving as a player, and Dawkins singled him out for becoming a leader. I can’t speak to the leadership claim, but I can say that this was clearly Kispert’s worst season. I can also agree he’s improved in some areas (like attacking closeouts and finishing (except against size)). But he’s deficient in non-scoring areas such as play-making, defending, and rebounding, and the NBA is less and less a game for specialists. The Wizards would be wise to trade him before his stock goes lower.
- Kyshawn George — 68 games — PPA: 53. Of Washington’s youngsters, George’s season was the least impressive, and it was still at least somewhat encouraging. He competed on defense, showed some ball handling and playmaking skills, and shot decently after a horrific start.
- JT Thor — 11 games — PPA: 36. Big, athletic, had a great moment hitting a three. Overall, not so good but fine for a 22-year-old on a two-way contract.
- Anthony Gill — 51 games — PPA: 34. Gill’s on the team for his leadership and good vibes. His PPA (34) beat his age (32).
- AJ Johnson — 22 games — PPA: 26. The 20-year-old rookie didn’t get real NBA playing time until he arrived in Washington as part of the Kuzma for Middleton deal. Words that come to mind when thinking of Johnson: extremely slender, youthful, athletic. Somehow, he seemed impossibly younger than anyone else on the team. He made some eye-popping athletic plays. And since he’s on a guaranteed contract, he’ll be back. He has a long ways to go to become a quality NBA player.
PPA Scores for Other/Departed Wizards
- Jonas Valanciunas — WAS PPA: 100. Sacramento Kings PPA: 109
- Marvin Bagley III — WAS PPA: 76. Memphis Grizzlies PPA: 66
- Jared Butler — WAS PPA: 65. Philadelphia 76ers PPA: 95
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. — WAS PPA: 60. Los Angeles Clippers PPA: 215 (only six minutes)
- Jalen McDaniels — 7 minutes over 4 games. PPA: 57
- Kyle Kuzma — WAS PPA: 48. Milwaukee Bucks PPA: 58 (Yes, Kuzma was awful in Washington and in Milwaukee.)
- Jaylen Martin — Brooklyn Nets PPA: 48 (5 total minutes). WAS PPA: 40 (234 total minutes)
- Johnny Davis — WAS PPA: 37.
Next up: the annual offseason performance ekgs . Vote below to let me know who you want me to analyze first.