The city has competing sports and a large population of folks who aren’t from D.C.
Last week, we explored the strengths of Washington as a basketball market. The youth development, especially in Maryland is strong. And this area is wealthy so they can afford to pay for Washington Wizards and Mystics tickets. But what about the area’s weaknesses? Let’s explore them:
Washington is transient, but there’s a catch to that
Much has been written about the D.C. area being transient. I disagree that the D.C. area is transient to the point where so many people are moving in and out of schools to where there is a large degree of turnover. And yes, there are many people who work for U.S. Congress members or for the U.S. President. In fact, we’re going to see a lot of turnover with the latter in the coming weeks.
But even with that turnover, there aren’t THAT many people who will move in and out of the D.C. area on a constant basis. So people like political appointees from the Presidential Administration or consular staff from various countries are generally NOT trying to live here permanently.
What I notice however is that many DMV natives are raised by people who aren’t from the area. And those sports team loyalties get passed onto them.
We see that in the NBA when there are as many, if not more DMV Lakers and Celtics fans than Wizards ones. And though the WNBA isn’t that old of a league yet, this trend could hit the Mystics as well given that they haven’t been great for most of their franchise history.
The youth are increasingly more interested in other sports than basketball — and that hurts the sport longer term
With the Washington Capitals being an NHL power for most of the last 20 years, including a Stanley Cup Champion in 2018, the Washington area has increasingly become an ice hockey market over a basketball one in many parts. This is particularly the case in more affluent suburbs like Loudoun County and Fairfax County, Va.
Also, with hockey becoming more popular than basketball, it should be no surprise that there are more facilities for youth, mostly boys, to play in local leagues. Loudoun County has two hockey facilities with ION in Leesburg and the Ashburn Ice House for this.
For girls, basketball has become less popular because of the rise in girls volleyball. In fact, volleyball is increasingly becoming the pre-eminent girls team sport over basketball. That trend is nationwide, but it seems to be a bit more pronounced in more affluent suburbs as well.
When the area is becoming more interest in hockey and volleyball due to various trends, while professional basketball team performance is languishing for the most part, it makes the Washington area less desirable as a basketball market for prospective free agents.
The Washington Commanders’ possible return to relevance
As a professional sports town, the D.C. area has historically been an NFL city first after Joe Gibbs and Joe Bugle led the famed Hogs offensive line to three Super Bowl championships in the 1980s and early 1990s. With Philadelphia 76ers owner Josh Harris and NBA legend Earvin “Magic” Johnson now owning the Washington Commanders (I know, basketball guys are owning the NFL team), interest in the team and the NFL has increased.
The Commanders had a very hot start this season, but are falling back to earth recently after losing to the arch rival Dallas Cowboys yesterday. But my point is this: when the Commanders are doing well, every professional team takes a back seat. And with the Wizards in particular doing poorly this season, even if it’s by design, it’s just not going to be an environment for fanbase growth.
The possibility of economic decline due to the future Trump Administration’s desire to cut federal government jobs
Washington is the capital of the United States, so politics is in our DNA. Not necessarily political discourse. But the federal government is one of the essential economic engines of the area. The “bureaucracy” is a favorite scapegoat for politicians. But here in the DMV, that “bureaucracy” is also made up of the same people who help keep grocery stores and restaurants open.
It is well-known that President Elect Donald Trump is looking to move federal government jobs outside of Washington and/or lay off employees once he takes office on Jan. 20, 2025. Assuming a fair amount of this happens, the DMV will be adversely affected.
Sure, professional basketball players won’t have to worry much about poor quality of life. But at some level, an economic decline locally will make D.C. a less desirable place to be.
Now, it’s time to discuss
What do you think are the Washington area’s biggest weaknesses as a basketball market? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.