Turns out, Summer League is predictive of NBA performance
When it comes to summer league, I’ve long been on Team ItDoesn’tMatter. Our team motto: “It’s just summer league.” And, according to some academic research lurking on the internet since 2019, maybe I should request a trade.
In the paper, titled “Is the NBA Summer League predictive of performance for NBA rookies?” three economists answer the question with a strong yes.
Brent A. Evans and Chris Clark, Georgia College & State University, and Joshua D. Pitts, Kennesaw State University did what academics do — gather data, build a model, crunch the numbers, and reach conclusions.
“Even after controlling for a player’s draft position and other relevant factors, we show that performance in summer league is positively correlated with performance for the same player as he competes as a rookie in the NBA regular season,” they write.
Using win share as an overall measure, they found that better production in summer league predicted stronger performance at the NBA level.
They took it a step further by creating a model that predicted Summer League performance in five statistical categories — points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. They found that when a player’s actual Summer League performance in these categories exceeded their expected production, the player went on to outproduce fellow rookies.
As they put it, “If a player scored more frequently in Summer League than anticipated, that same player generally scored more than otherwise similar players in the NBA.”
This same finding appeared in all five categories.
Now, I could probably nitpick a few things. For example, why not take a more comprehensive look at box score stats (or plus/minus)? Does Summer League shooting carry over? But it would be nitpicking. The important finding is that Summer League performance does have some bearing on how a player goes on to play at the NBA level.
So why am I not requesting, nay DEMANDING a trade to Team All-In For Summer League? Wizards history. If it matters when a player is good, it has to also matter when a player stinks, and Wizards rookies often are closer to the latter than the former in Summer League.