League expansion and a likely new CBA will mean lots of player movement. But does that player movement mean that superstars will want to come to DC? It depends.
One of the main frustrations many Washington Mystics fans have about the 2024 season is that the team started out 0-12 and will likely finish in the lottery. They are rebuilding, perhaps a year later than they should. And they are worried about not having a franchise player for the long term if the team misses the playoffs AND 2025 WNBA Draft lottery doesn’t go their way.
That said, the WNBA could look very different in 2026. While it’s possible that Mike Thibault is still the General Manager and Eric Thibault is still the head coach then, it’s likely that many of the players on this Mystics team will be on another roster then. That’s because the WNBPA (the players’ union) intends to opt out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement after the 2025 season.
If Washington plays their cards right, they could be on a quick path toward contending for a second WNBA championship. If not, this season’s short term pain could be lasting for quite awhile. Therefore, the 2026 offseason will be the most important in Mystics franchise history (and quite frankly, every team in the league).
Why is the WNBPA looking to opt out of the CBA?
Ultimately, it’s because the players see an opportunity to get paid a lot more. The bulk of WNBA revenue comes from media rights.
The WNBA’s viewership ratings have increased throughout the 2020s, though the collective arrival of Caitlin Clark to the Indiana Fever and Angel Reese to the Chicago Sky has exploded TV ratings, as this article by Ben Strauss of The Washington Sports shows.
Currently, the WNBA does its TV deals jointly with the NBA in a deal worth about $2.7 billion per year for both leagues, though the WNBA’s value in that is estimated to be about $60 million annually. With the next media deal that the NBA is looking to do, revenue may go up to $7 billion or more per year. Assuming the WNBA percentage values go up proportionally, that could be up to $200 million annually, but Strauss reported that the NBA values the WNBA media rights as opposed to the WNBA’s leadership.
There is some talk about the WNBA getting its own media rights separate from the NBA. But in Strauss’ article, WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert does not want that because of the short regular season. With the NBA and WNBA together, both leagues can offer a 12-month package as opposed to just a 4 month one in the summer.
Assuming the new media deal is triple the current one, WNBA players could see their salaries double, if not more.
Why wouldn’t salaries triple if the media deal triples?
Two reasons. First, there is a good likelihood that roster sizes will increase. And second, there will be more teams when the new CBA begins.
WNBA rosters are currently limited to 12 players a team. It would cost money to increase rosters to 13-14 players each, even at a minimum salary. There are frustrations about these small roster sizes, which include teams cutting first round picks (second and third round picks rarely make teams now) among other things.
Also, the WNBA will have 14 teams in 2026. If all 14 teams had 14 players each, that’s 196 players, a 36 percent increase in personnel over 144, the collective limit of players in the current 12-team league. So while the collective amount of player salaries could realistically triple, there will also be many more players to pay.
So how does this affect the Mystics (and any other WNBA team)?
Since the players will likely opt out after the 2025 season, they are unlikely to sign contracts that go beyond the 2025 season. The only players who are going to be on contract in 2026 and 2027 will be those on rookie scale contracts. Only two players, none of whom are Mystics, have a non-rookie scale contract beyond 2025.
According to Her Hoop Stats, Aaliyah Edwards and Jade Melbourne are the only Mystics players under contract for 2026 with an unprotected salary of $82,399 and a team option of $76,240, respectively. Edwards is on a rookie scale contract and she has a team option of $93,636 in 2027 as well.
What have the Mystics done to prepare for 2026?
According to Kareem Copeland of The Washington Post, General Manager Mike Thibault was intentional about signing players to short term contracts and rebuilding toward that 2026 offseason.
Also, given that this year’s team is likely lottery bound, there’s a chance that if things play out right, the Mystics could have a franchise guard who would be a selling point to free agents.
What are some other things the Mystics and/or other WNBA teams have or are doing for 2026?
Teams are now in various “arms races” to show that they are treating their players very well. They include team owned and operated practice facilities and larger venues. The Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces are the most valuable WNBA teams because they own their own practice facilities.
What things do the Mystics have an advantage in compared to other WNBA teams?
Some advantages include:
- A vibrant metropolitan area: The D.C. area is a great place to live as a young adult with great neighborhoods, shopping, nightlife and more. Really, people of all ages love hanging out in D.C. so that has been a selling point for a long time.
- A great place to raise a family: If a player is a parent, she is more likely to live in the suburbs for open space. The public schools in the DC area are among the best in the country, especially in the suburbs.
- A practice facility connected to the arena: The MedStar Health Performance Center is connected to the Entertainment and Sports Arena. Players won’t have to commute to two different locations from their residences, assuming they live in other D.C. neighborhoods or Arlington County, Va., for example.
- Championship winning staff: The Mystics won the 2019 WNBA championship with some members of that front office still here (Mike Thibault, Eric Thibault, assistant coach LaToya Sanders, etc.). Contrary to what some fans think about what should happen to the front office because of their recent woes, I think that Mike Thibault at least should see this rebuild through given his past track record rebuilding the Mystics from very difficult circumstances when he first came here.
- Visible and supportive ownership: Ted Leonsis, the CEO of Monumental Sports & Entertainment is a regular fixture at Mystics games. He has said for nearly 20 years that investing in women’s sports is good business (and he has mused about a women’s hockey team in the future). Until Virginia State Senator L. Louise Lucas got in the way, the Mystics could have been on their way to Capital One Arena full-time by 2028.
- The possibility of young cornerstones being in place: The Mystics know they have Edwards here no matter what in 2026, but what if they get the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft? No. 1 AND No. 2? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…..
What things are the Mystics at a disadvantage in compared to other WNBA teams?
Here are some of the disadvantages the Mystics have:
- The Mystics play in an arena that’s too small for the modern WNBA: I respect Senator Lucas’ social media game, but I also think her decision to not hold discussions about an Alexandria hurt the Mystics the most within the Monumental Sports & Entertainment family. Yeah, the Mystics have a few more games at Capital One Arena, but ESA is the second smallest arena in the WNBA. It was sized for a different time (and it was too small then). Today’s WNBA players expect to play in bigger facilities and 4,200 doesn’t cut it.
- Possibility of political uneasiness in the nation’s capital: WNBA players are known for being social activists like Phoenix Mercury guard Natasha Cloud, much more than their NBA counterparts. However, with the U.S. federal elections happening this year, Washington may not seem like a friendly environment if Republican Party candidate and former President Donald Trump wins a second term. Unfortunately, this is a factor I can’t ignore, and it’s also a factor the Mystics can’t control.
- The Mystics will not have a sole practice facility for themselves, regardless of their arena situation: The Capital City Go-Go will play at ESA for the foreseeable future and they will practice at MedStar Health Performance Center. The Mystics may not be sharing a practice facility with the Wizards anymore in a few years, but they are still sharing it. Former Mystics guard Alysha Clark noted this in an interview after signing with the Aces in 2023.
- The Mystics aren’t good right now and have been declining since 2019: No sugarcoating this one. Since the Mystics won the championship, they have gradually been declining. Free agent signing didn’t pan out due to injury.
- The ownership groups of the expansion teams are looking to make splashes too: Joe Lacob, the Valkyries owner, has wanted to own a WNBA team for a long time and was a women’s basketball team owner in the ABL in the 1990s. The Bay Area has also been longing for a WNBA team. In addition, Larry Tanenbaum, the Toronto WNBA team owner will begin shop in 2026. Don’t be surprised to see these teams become more competitive than the average expansion team because both Lacob and Tanenbaum are very wealthy owners who also want to make their teams and cities attractive for free agents.
These are just some of the reasons why 2026 will be the most important offseason in Mystics history. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.