The Washington Wizards went into the 2025 offseason with three picks — numbers 6, 18, and 40. After a few transactions, they emerged from the 2025 NBA Draft with what they hope will be a haul — Texas guard Tre Johnson (6th pick), Illinois wing Will Riley (21st), and Florida State wing Jamir Watkins (43rd).
When it comes to evaluating potential NBA players, I defer to the judgement of Wizards general manager Will Dawkins, and the management team. That said, Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA for short), my stat-based prospect evaluation tool, has come to somewhat different conclusions than Dawkins and company.
They chose Johnson sixth — YODA ranked him 11th. Riley was 21st after a trade down — YODA had him 19th in the final rankings. They took Watkins with the 43rd pick, YODA had him 80th.
Since it’s the offseason, and summer league is still on the horizon, I thought I’d run each of these guys through the statistical doppelganger portion of YODA to see what the numbers produce as potential comps. This is usually more interesting (at least to me) than proclaiming athletic wings the next Michael Jordan, tall guards the next Magic Johnson, or every white guy the next Larry Bird.
Let’s start at the top.
Tre Johnson
The thumbnail stat-based report on Johnson is that he’s a guard with good size and decent athleticism who shot well from three-point range and the free throw line. The reason he landed 11th in YODA: poor two-point percent (just under 45%) and meh non-scoring production — not many rebounds, steals, or blocks. He had just enough assists and a good enough assists-to-turnover ratio to think he has some playmaking potential at the NBA level.
Who does YODA’s doppelganger machine say are the prospects most similar?
- Jamal Murray, Kentucky — The Wizards would be happy with the next Murray. On a per minute basis, Murray produced more rebounds and fewer assists (interesting), and he shot better on twos and threes. Their YODA scores were identical.
- Trey Burke, Michigan — Burke was a terrific college player who flopped in the NBA. He’s more of a playmaker than Johnson, at least at the NCAA level, and he shot better from everywhere. The only area where Burke didn’t hit the NBA benchmarks was size (he measured under six feet at the combine), and he didn’t have the craft or athleticism to overcome.
- Luke Kennard, Duke — Kennard was a great shooter at Duke, and he also produced more rebounds than Johnson. His defensive impact was minimal. The biggest drag on his career has been the constant injuries.
- Jalen Brunson, Villanova — Smaller than Johnson, Brunson shot well on threes and free throws, and nearly 60% on twos. A YODA “favorite” (I had him with a first round grade), Brunson was more of a playmaker, though he had little defensive impact. He blocked exactly one shot his entire junior season.
- Malik Monk, Kentucky — Yet another smaller guard, though Monk had serious athletic tools. His overall production was pretty similar (per minute) to Johnson’s.
Honorable Mentions: Ben McLemore, Gary Trent Jr., Cam Thomas, Buddy Heild, De’Angelo Russell.
Will Riley
Solid size and athleticism for a wing. Riley cracked 50% on twos (the preferred benchmark for wings is 55%), and shot just 32.6% on threes and 72.4% on free throws. He showed some rebounding and playmaking ability, but posted anemic steals and blocks (0.4 per 40 minutes in each category, which is poor). Even so, he landed 19th overall in YODA.
YODA Doppelgangers:
- Cassius Stanley, Duke — Had to look him up. He was the 54th overall selection in the 2020 draft and out of the league by 2022.
- Jordan Hawkins, Connecticut — More guard than wing but still a solid prospect. He’s become a reasonably valued reserve for the New Orleans Pelicans, though his offensive efficiency has been subpar.
- Khris Middleton, Texas A&M — A second round pick in 2012, Middleton grew into an All-Star and borderline All-NBA level producer at his best. He was at worst the third best player on a championship team. Who better to mentor Riley into becoming the next Middleton than Middleton himself?
- Stanley Johnson, Arizona — The 8th overall selection in 2015, Johnson never became a good NBA player, though he did last eight seasons.
- Justin Anderson, Virginia — Anderson was the 21st overall pick in 2015, and had a career kinda like Johnson at number four. That is to say, he never improved to the point of being good, but he stuck around — six teams in six seasons.
Honorable Mentions: Malik Beasley, Alonzo Trier, R.J. Hampton, Nik Stauskas, Glen Rice Jr., Malcolm Brogdon.
Jamir Watkins
Watkins is a big wing with good rebounding, some playmaking, and kinda okay steals numbers. He’s also 23 (entering his age 24 season), and he shot below positional benchmarks on twos, threes, and free throws. Also, he had lots of turnovers and fouls. Do I like this selection? No, I do not.
There’s not much point in doing a top five doppelgangers because so few of Watkins comps even reached the NBA. No, this is not promising. Here are a few more recognizable names:
- Brandon Davies, BYU — Undrafted forward who appeared in 78 NBA games over two seasons, mostly with The Process Philadelphia 76ers.
- Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure — Yes, the same Nicholson former team president Ernie Grunfeld gave a four-year contract in free agency…and then (a few months later) paid a first round pick to dump.
- Robert Covington, Tennessee State — We’re a decent ways down the list of “similars” at this point, and the thing that jumps out are the differences — Covington produced LOTS of steals and blocks, which at least somewhat forecasted his NBA defensive impact. I don’t see similar indicators in Watkins’ numbers.
- Ben Sheppard, Belmont — Good shooter who faced weaker competition in college. He’s become a contributor off the bench with the Indiana Pacers.
Still, this definitely falls into the category of cherrypicking — I have to dig to find recognizable names. Waktins’ “top” comps are guys like Jake Cohen, Davidson; Marshawn Powell, Arkansas; Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State; Wendell McKines, New Mexico State; Alex Young, IUPUI; Landers Nolley II, Cincinnati. I’ll stop there.
If we take YODA’s comps somewhat literally, they’ve come out of this draft with the next Jamal Murray, Cassius Stanley, and Brandon Davies. And you know, that’s actually pretty good. Would complete whiffs at 21 and 43 be somewhat disappointing? Sure, but not if they land a Murray-level player at six.