We’re nine weeks into the 2022 college football season and the number of real contenders for the College Football Playoff has diminished considerably.
ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor computer model has reduced the field of likely playoff teams down to only 11. Those 11 teams have at least a 2-percent chance of making the Playoff come December.
The 11 teams are as follows:
- Ohio State (85-percent)
- Georgia (69-percent)
- Tennessee (63-percent)
- Clemson (52-percent)
- Alabama (50-percent)
- Michigan (47-percent)
- TCU (12-percent)
- Oregon (9-percent)
- USC (8-percent)
- Utah (2-percent)
- Ole Miss (2-percent)
Of these 11, only six teams were given better than a 1-in-8 chance of making the Playoff. That number will likely drop to five depending on the outcome of Saturday’s epic Georgia-Tennessee game.
Right now it appears that the paths of Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Clemson and Michigan is abundantly clear: Win out, and you’re guaranteed a spot.
Even though TCU is undefeated and the trio of Oregon, USC and Utah are 7-1 each, all of them need to hope for some midseason chaos among those other six to have a shot of getting in.
As for Ole Miss, they can also make the case for getting into the Playoff if they knock off Alabama en route to winning the SEC.
But one loss for any of those latter five teams will certainly spell the end of their national title ambitions. Alabama, also, seems unlikely to get in if they have a second loss staining their record.
Are there any teams outside of the 11 that could realistically make the College Football Playoff?