A look ahead at the Terps’ potential paths to the Big Ten Tournament championship before a pivotal weekend.
Maryland men’s lacrosse rose to No. 3 in the country following an impressive 13-8 victory over No. 6 Ohio State on Saturday, a move which positions them incredibly well for the NCAA Tournament.
Before then, Maryland has to get through conference play — where the Terps also place third, but in a three-way tie with Penn State and Rutgers.
Parity in the Big Ten will make for a fascinating finish to the regular season. With the exception of Johns Hopkins, which has undergone an injury-ridden, disappointing stretch, every team enters the final week with conference tournament implications on the line.
Each team has played four of their five conference games. With Michigan’s 8-6 victory over Rutgers Sunday afternoon, the Wolverines now sit at 3-1 in the Big Ten, tied with Ohio State for the lead. The path ahead for the Big Ten Tournament became somewhat clearer with the Wolverines’ win: Michigan or Ohio State will finish as the undisputed top seed, as they play each other Saturday.
All six teams make the Big Ten Tournament, and the top two seeds receive a bye to the semifinals. A two-team tie comes down to head-to-head results, while tiebreakers for a three-team tie are trickier to navigate and will be explained below.
The Big Ten Tournament begins on April 26. Quarterfinals will be hosted by the third- and fourth-placed teams, and championship weekend will take place in Ann Arbor, Michigan, with the semifinals on May 1 and the final on May 3.
Current standings:
T-1st: Michigan (3-1)
T-1st: Ohio State (3-1)
T-3rd: Maryland (2-2)
T-3rd: Penn State (2-2)
T-3rd: Rutgers (2-2)
6th: Johns Hopkins (0-4)
Potential finishes:
Michigan: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Ohio State: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Maryland: 2nd, 4th, 5th
Penn State: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
Rutgers: 3rd, 4th, 5th
Johns Hopkins: 6th
The games this weekend:
Rutgers (2-2) at Penn State (2-2): Friday at 6 p.m.
Johns Hopkins (0-4) at Maryland (2-2): Friday at 8 p.m.
Ohio State (3-1) at Michigan (3-1): Saturday at 4 p.m.
If Maryland loses:
Penn State beats Rutgers and Ohio State beats Michigan: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Rutgers, Maryland, Johns Hopkins
Penn State beats Rutgers and Michigan beats Ohio State: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Johns Hopkins
Rutgers beats Penn State and Ohio State beats Michigan: Ohio State, Michigan, Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Johns Hopkins
Rutgers beats Penn State and Michigan beats Ohio State: Michigan, Ohio State, Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Johns Hopkins
It appears unlikely, but if the Terps fail to beat Johns Hopkins Friday, they will finish with a 2-3 record, their most regular season conference losses since 1993.
If the Terps see the same result as Penn State Friday, they are guaranteed to finish above the Nittany Lions. Penn State needs a Johns Hopkins victory to potentially jump as high as second in the conference. With a Penn State loss, Maryland earns a home quarterfinal game at worst; if the Terps also lose, it will come against Penn State.
If Rutgers beats Penn State, the Scarlet Knights are guaranteed to host a quarterfinal game. However, because they lost to both Michigan and Ohio State, there is no scenario where Rutgers can make it into the top two. For Maryland, this is where its loss to Rutgers could prove costly. The Terps could fall as low as fifth, where they would be condemned to travel back up the I-95 to face Rutgers once again.
Because the Penn State-Rutgers game begins two hours before the Terps’ game, head coach John Tillman and his crew will go into the matchup against Johns Hopkins knowing the result. The Terps certainly won’t be planning to lose, but a Penn State loss could cushion the blow.
If Maryland wins:
This is where things get delightfully difficult. Two teams are guaranteed to finish the season 3-2 in the conference; a Maryland win against Johns Hopkins would make it three, adding a layer of complexity.
Penn State beats Rutgers and Ohio State beats Michigan: Ohio State, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan, Rutgers, Johns Hopkins
In this scenario, Maryland, Michigan and Penn State all have a 3-2 conference record. The first tiebreaker for a three-team tie is to compare the records of those teams against each other. All three teams are 1-1 — Michigan beat Maryland, Maryland beat Penn State and Penn State beat Michigan. As a result, we move to the second tiebreaker: record against the highest seed.
In this case, the highest seed is the Buckeyes, whose only loss in the conference is to Maryland. This would put the Terps above Michigan and Penn State for second place. When the three-team tie is broken, we return to regular head-to-head tiebreaking rules, which would see Penn State slot in above Michigan.
Penn State beats Rutgers and Michigan beats Ohio State: Michigan, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Johns Hopkins
If Maryland, Ohio State and Penn State are the three remaining teams, the situation becomes far simpler for the Terps. Maryland beat Ohio State and Penn State in the regular season and would separate into second place. Ohio State beat the Nittany Lions, so they would take third place and likely face the Terps in the semifinals.
Rutgers beats Penn State and Ohio State beats Michigan: Ohio State, Michigan, Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Johns Hopkins
The Terps could end up as the No. 4 seed in the conference whether they win or lose. In this hypothetical, Maryland, Michigan and Rutgers all finish at 3-2. Michigan beat Rutgers and Maryland, so it would take second place. Then, it comes down to the head-to-head — the Rutgers loss would again come back to haunt Maryland.
Rutgers beats Penn State and Michigan beats Ohio State: Michigan, ?, ?, ?, Penn State, Johns Hopkins
This scenario is the craziest one. Ohio State, Maryland and Rutgers would all finish on 3-2. Once again, all three teams would be 1-1: Maryland lost to Rutgers, who lost to Ohio State, who lost to Maryland. That would move things to the second tiebreak, results against the highest seed. With Ohio State losing to Michigan to create this scenario, all three teams would have lost to the Wolverines.
From there, the tiebreak is supposed to continue to the results against the second-highest seed. However, the second-highest seed would be the amalgamation of 3-2 teams. There is no way to determine which would be the second-highest seed, as this entire process is trying to answer that question. Additionally, all three teams would have beaten Penn State and Johns Hopkins in the scenario as well.
As a result, the process should move to the third tiebreaker.
That third tiebreaker appears to be goal differential in the games played between the tied teams. It’s not listed as such on the Big Ten website; in fact, the Big Ten makes no mention of conference tiebreakers. However, this is the process in several other conferences, so extrapolating that here is logical. And even if it wasn’t, it’s fun to imagine.
And so, the games between teams are as follows:
Rutgers 11 – Ohio State 13 — Ohio State +2, Rutgers -2
Maryland 6, Rutgers 8, — Maryland -2, Rutgers +2
Maryland 13, Ohio State 8 — Maryland +5, Ohio State -5
Compiling those results, Maryland finishes with a goal difference of +3, Rutgers has a goal difference of zero and Ohio State ends with a goal difference of -3. The Terps’ impressive performance against the Buckeyes makes amends for the Rutgers game, and Maryland would secure the No. 2 seed. However, after one team is separated, the process should reset to the two-team tiebreaker; as a result, Ohio State would slip ahead of Rutgers. The results would be as follows:
Rutgers beats Penn State and Michigan beats Ohio State: Michigan, Maryland, Ohio State, Rutgers, Penn State, Johns Hopkins
A Michigan victory over Ohio State certainly makes things easier for Maryland. However, the Terps can take solace knowing they at least partially control their own destiny. One thing is for certain: a victory over Johns Hopkins is critical in setting Maryland up for postseason success. But it’s unlikely Maryland needed any more motivation, as they get set to compete in The Rivalry.