As political divisions have hardened nationwide, Maryland’s bluest areas — including Baltimore City — have become bluer and its reddest regions redder.
But there remain “battleground” precincts where Democratic and Republican worlds collide and voters’ allegiances couldn’t be any more evenly split.
Consider Baltimore County Precinct 13-002, where Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump got exactly the same number of votes — 608 — in the 2020 election won by Biden.
The Arbutus-area precinct of about 2,800 people is arguably the “purplest” in the state, according to a Baltimore Sun analysis of election returns from recent years.
The precinct, in a blue-collar area known for its small-town feel, has had remarkably close races in recent years.
In early 2022 voting, Democratic U.S. Rep. Kweisi Mfume and Republican challenger Scott Collier each got 147 votes. Mfume pulled away slightly when the full vote was tallied, winning the precinct 589-560. It wasn’t close elsewhere as Mfume was reelected to the 7th Congressional District seat — which is based in Baltimore City — with 82% of the vote.
An unincorporated town, Arbutus is known for its annual 4th of July parade and is the home of Republican former Gov. Robert Ehrlich.
“I think it’s a town that is fiercely patriotic,” said Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski Jr., who is running for the 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by the retirement of Rep. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger, a fellow Democrat. “It’s a hard-working, blue-collar, close-knit community.”
The precinct used to be more Republican-oriented than it is today. In 2016, it backed Trump over Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 446 to 267.
“There have been changes,” said University of Baltimore professor John Willis, who was secretary of state in the administration of Democratic Gov. Parris Glendening. “There is the out-migration from the city and the development of the UMBC campus” immediately to the precinct’s west, Willis said.
Those shifts have brought in new residents and eroded the Republicans’ edge.
“I’d say it’s pretty close,” said Arbutus resident Bill McClung, 51, of the area’s Republican to Democratic ratio. He said his main concern in the presidential race is which candidate can improve the economy, and he is leaning toward Trump.
“We’re all pretty much blue-collar around here. There’s work, but you’ve got to really dig for it,” said McClung, a construction worker, as he pulled into a local shopping center containing discount stores such as Dollar General and the Save-A-Lot grocery.
Another shopper, retiree Toni Felton, 75, said she was voting for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
“I think her politics suit me better, and I think her presence is more presidential,” she said.
While a few other precincts — in Harford, Carroll and St. Mary’s counties — also split their votes equally in the last presidential contest, the Arbutus precinct had a larger sample size and is in a county that, while Democrat-leaning, elects enough Republicans to local offices to be considered competitive.
Arbutus is represented by a Democrat, Pat Young, on the Baltimore County Council, which is split between four Democrats and three Republicans.
Other purple counties include Frederick, Kent and Talbot, which each flipped to Democratic in the 2020 presidential election after voting Republican in 2016. Political analysts attribute the evolving landscape to population shifts that are turning once-rural counties into extensions of Democratic-oriented suburbs.
Most Marylanders, however, live in areas dominated by one party or another.
Democrats control Baltimore City and the large Washington suburbs of Montgomery and Prince George’s counties. Republicans dominate the Western Maryland counties of Allegany, Garrett and most of the Eastern Shore.
Baltimore County is different. It has a Democratic county executive — Olszewski — but also has pockets, such as Dundalk and Essex, containing devout supporters of Trump, who is seeking the presidency again after losing to Biden in 2020.
Presiding over a county not dominated by a single party provides elected leaders a lesson in bipartisanship, Olszewski said. The Democrats and Republicans may often disagree, but “we believe we govern better when we listen to each other,” he said.
Dundalk and Essex fit neatly into Trump’s 2016 message of trying to revive parts of the country left behind in a post-industrial economy. Bethlehem Steel, General Motors and other large plants employed tens of thousands of residents in the area decades ago. Trump visited a popular Dundalk diner in 2016.
Baltimore County “has some really conservative leanings around the county,” said state Sen. Charles E. Sydnor III, whose district incudes Arbutus. “Its Democrats are a little more moderate than what they are in other jurisdictions. But it’s had Democratic county executives since I’ve lived here,” Sydnor said.
“It’s a jurisdiction, I would say, that is a bluer shade of purple.”