In Washington, D.C. politics, the phrase “gravy train” means something completely different than it does in football. In the case of the Washington Commanders football team, it means that the team has gone beyond the wildest expectations of this fanbase (in general) and anything else would be gravy—and an NFC Championship game would be pure, unadulterated euphoria.
So if you’re a Commanders fan and you haven’t been riding the gravy train to Ford Field in Detroit for the NFC Divisional Playoff game against the Lions on Saturday night, you better get your ticket now.
That’s not to say that Commanders fans just call it in for Saturday night’s game against the Lions. The cliché that on any given day, any NFL football team can beat another team is true. Hell, there was a movie called “On Any Given Day” so it means something!
But it would take everything to go right, a few breaks along the way and very few if any mistakes for the Commanders to pull this one out of a hat. The margin for error is a sliver.
Let’s start with the Commanders defense, particularly the secondary. They have to play above their heads for the entire game. Marshon Lattimore’s hamstring needs to hold up for four quarters and it’s not just about meeting “markers” for him. It’s about 100%. He and fellow cornerback Mike Sainristil will need to blanket cover receivers and, with Jeremy Chinn and Quan Martin, they might need to a few interceptions as well. Five turnovers come to mind and three interceptions would do well but two might be acceptable.
A couple of fumbles wouldn’t hurt either. Not the one fumble that Baker Mayfield made last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to turn the game around but maybe two. The Commanders must have no turnovers. Is it possible? Of course. Is it probable that there’ll be a 5-0 turnover ratio in this game? Let’s just say it’s unlikely.
As for the defensive line, with the help of linebackers Frankie Luvu and Donte Fowler, Jr., they must put pressure on Jared Goff or forget about it. Goff has turned into a top NFL quarterback and if he has time to throw to wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end Sam LaPorta or running back Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield, then it’ll be just that much harder to cover all of them. And they can terrorize even the best defenses as they’ve shown all season. Of course, the last piece to the puzzle is that the Commanders must stop the run.
Detroit running back David Montgomery will likely have less impact his first game back from injury but Gibbs can run all over teams and he has in previous games.
Why am I picking on the Commanders defense?
Because I’m not as concerned about pro bowl rookie phenom quarterback Jayden Daniels, likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, leading the Commanders offense. Granted, the offense will need to turn it up a level because Daniels is going against a Lions defense, albeit banged up, but definitely formidable and looking like a defense that can take the Lions to the Super Bowl.
Forget for a moment about star defensive end Za’Darius Smith and pro bowl strong safety Brian Branch on defense, but cornerback Amik Robertson played an amazing game two weeks ago against Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. It’s true that Darnold has been somewhat taken down a notch by not raising his game a notch in the last two crucial games, but there were passes on the spot to Justin Jefferson knocked away by Robertson and the Lions defense is number one in third down defense. They also don’t give up many touchdowns.
The Commanders have the intangible that the team is under no pressure in this game. They’re 9.5-point underdogs so expect the team to go on fourth downs most of the game. In fact, if punter Tress Way is on the field more than two or three times, it means the offense is losing yardage and that’s going to be a bad sign for any chances of winning.
At the same time, we can judge the Commanders defense by how many times Detroit’s pro bowl punter Jack Fox is in the game since the Lions head coach Dan Campbell also has a knack for going for it on the fourth down as well.
Most of all, the Commanders offensive line will need to play its best game of the year. It means few if any penalties, including holding and illegal man downfield.
You may think I’m being a little extreme about what needs to happen in this game for the Commanders to have a chance to win it but look at the team across the line that had two weeks off and is playing at home in front of its raucous crowd.
The Lions team had a 17-point lead against the San Francisco 49ers last year in the NFC Championship game and were going to the Super Bowl until the 49ers came back to win 34-31. This season, it was their white whale and likely motivated them to a 15-2 record. One game they lost was to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second week of the season. The Commanders lost to the Buccaneers 37-20 in the first game of the season but beat them last week in Tampa.
The second game the Lions lost was to a Buffalo Bills team in one of the wildest games of the season, ending 48-42.
The Lions’ white whale is coming into view and the first team standing in Detroit’s way is the Commanders. Plus, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn are two of the best coaches in the game—likely to be head coaches next season if they choose that route. Johnson decided to stay in Detroit for this season because he wanted to finish what they started.
However, if the Commanders are to stave off the Lions, they would either need to score in the vicinity of 48 points or, more likely, hold onto the ball for drives of seven minutes or longer and put the ball not just into the red zone but in the end zone, then it keeps the ball out of Goff’s hands and Washington might be able to make it into the fourth quarter staying close to the Lions—possibly even a 7 or 10-point disadvantage.
If that happens, then all bets are off. We’ve seen the Daniels magic in the fourth quarter all season and there’s much more in the tank. And while close only counts in horseshoes, going down to the end with the NFC’s first place team as team that was 4-13 last year and has exceeded all expectations this year, then it’s like Rocky Balboa going 15 rounds against Apollo Creed in the first movie. It is a moral victory. And it’s something to build on for next season.
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