DVOA creator Aaron Schatz shares his outlook on the 2024 Ravens ahead of the regular season.
With the 2024 NFL season finally upon us, FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA and many advanced metrics sat down with Baltimore Beatdown to share his thoughts, predictions and overall outlook for the Baltimore Ravens including where they stack up in the hierarchy in the AFC and NFL as a whole as well who could is the biggest threat to repeating as AFC North division champions.
The 2023 Ravens were one of the best teams ever according to your DVOA metrics. Do you believe this year’s team can even come close to the same level of success and if not, in what ways could they potentially fall short?
“It’s unlikely that they’re going to be as good as last year’s team in the regular season,” Schatz said. “Obviously, they can have more success by having more success in the playoffs. NFL history is filled with teams that won a championship in what was not their best year. In their best year, they lost in the playoffs, and then in another year they won a championship. So that’s always a possibility, but my guess is that they’re going to decline a little bit on both sides of the ball. I’m a little worried about the offensive line and the loss of Mike MacDonald, and so I think on both sides of the ball you’ll see a little bit of decline. They were so far ahead of the rest of the league last year in the regular season, and it’s very unlikely that they’re going to walk through the season again clobbering all the best teams on their schedule the way they did last year.”
There has been a lot of talk and concern about the Ravens pass rush for the second year in a row after losing Jadeveon Clowney. Given how he didn’t even sign until training camp last year followed by Kyle Van Noy in September, how much of a concern do believe it will be if at all in 2024?
“I still think that a lot of the pass rush last year was manipulated by Macdonald,” Schatz said. My worry would be less that there’s no Clowney, and more that whether Zach Orr can manipulate things as well as Macdonald did… I am neither confident, nor not confident. I honestly don’t. I think Macdonald was so good that you cannot expect a replacement to be as good as he was. But I don’t know whether Zach Orr is particularly good or bad. I don’t think any of us know.
Is the offensive line a potential glaring weakness or do the Ravens deserve the benefit of the doubt in their strategy even after the passing of beloved position coach and renown developer Joe D’Alessandris?
“I think it’s a potential weakness. There’s no question about it. But I think [Lamar] Jackson and Todd Monken, they can arrange things so that it’s not as big of a problem as you worry that it’s going to be. If the quarterback can get rid of the ball quickly, and the offensive scheme can manage things well, it won’t be as big of a problem as you think. I will fully admit that the biggest weakness of my projection system is that it has a hard time with big changes on the offensive line. So perhaps I am overrating the Ravens a little bit because I’m not fully accounting for the changes on the offensive line, but I think that they could scheme around them to some extent.
Are there any other concerns you have about this team heading into the season?
“There’s some questions about some of the turnover of personnel on the defense,” Schatz said. “But again, they do such a good job of training guys to take spots on defense, that I’m much more worried about the coordinator change than I am about any personnel change on the defense. And as far as the lack of real depth at wide receiver, I think you’re going to end up seeing a lot of 12 personnel with Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews. And that’ll take care of the fact that they don’t really go too deep at wide receiver.”
What are the biggest strengths on this team in your opinion?
“The secondary especially, it’s safety, [Nnamdi] Madubuike, Roquan Smith, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and [Isaiah] Likely. There’s definitely a lot of strengths,” Schatz said. “When you look at how much this team just clobbered opponents last year, you have to be like, even if this team declines a little bit, it should be really good again.”
How much added value does Derrick Henry bring the rushing attack and offense as a whole?
“I’m going to be an analytics guy here, and I’m going to say the fact is, very few running backs really move the needle,” Schatz said. “Henry was absolutely one of those players in 2019 and 2020 but he really hasn’t been for three years. He’s a little bigger than you average running back but also a little older. He’s just kind of one of many running backs, and I don’t know if he’s that much better than what they had last year. And I think a lot of this running game is going to depend on the new offensive lineman more than it is on Henry…Well, don’t forget, when you have a mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson, it does open things up for the running game, but that’s not Henry. It opened up for last year’s running back, and it opened things up for the running backs of the year before. So Henry doesn’t change that in any way… Running backs at his age don’t suddenly go back to averaging 5.5 yards per carry. That’s not happening.”
How dangerous do you believe this offensive can be in year two of Todd Monken after such an impressive year one debut?
“Very [dangerous],” Schatz said. The offensive line might hold it back, but this is an offense that was one of the top offenses in the league last year, and they could be one of the top offenses in the league again this year… They ranked second in DVOA in 12 personnel last year. Only Miami was better.”
What are some areas the Ravens can potentially gain an advantage this year?
“Well, everybody in the division has an easy schedule,” Schatz said. “The schedule got a lot easier for the entire AFC North so that’s not anywhere the Ravens gain any kind of advantage… The advantage Ravens have is that they were really good last year and the likelihood is that they’ll be really good again… They usually get an advantage in special teams, but I don’t know what to expect this year, because the new kickoff is so different, we have no idea what to expect from anybody on special teams. That’s an advantage that I’m not even sure that they have, that they’ve had the past. But, I mean, they just were a really good team last year. And it would be very rare for a team that was that good to suddenly be average. They’re not going to be as good as they were last year, but they should be pretty good.”
Who is the biggest threat to the Ravens repeating as AFC North champions in the division and how do you see it shaking out as a whole? Winners, risers and fallers
“The Bengals because the Browns quarterback situation is such a mess right now, with Watson’s shoulder and everything,” Schatz said. “Bengals are clearly the biggest competitor… The Bengals had last year one of the hardest schedules we have ever measured. Their schedule gets so much easier this year than it was last year plus Burrow back. They’re going to be a lot better. I think Browns [finish] third, Steelers fourth and I think this is the year that Mike Tomlin’s [consecutive seasons without a losing] streak ends.”
How do the Ravens stack up in hierarchy in both the AFC and NFL as a whole and could this finally be the year they get over the hump and at least make it to the Super Bowl?
“I have them number one, slightly ahead of Kansas City,” Schatz said. “San Francisco is the best team in the league, but I then have Baltimore second, and Kansas City third. They’re very close.
What gives the Ravens an edge over the Chiefs?
“Special teams,” Schatz said. “I think the difference between them is that one team has Justin Tucker. As good as Harrison Butker is, he’s not Justin Tucker. I think that I have the Ravens offense projected a little higher than the Chiefs offense and their defenses are projected similarly… Kansas City can sleep walk through the entire season because their division sucks, whereas the Ravens have huge competition.”
Who is the biggest non-chiefs threat to the Ravens in the AFC?
“The [Houston] Texans,” Schatz said. “The Texans were the most injured team in the NFL last year and if they have normal health this year, they’ll be even better than they were last year… I don’t think the Ravens particularly have something that’s like the Texas kryptonite and I think the Texans will be healthier this year and they’re dangerous.
Do you feel like this could be the final year the Ravens get over the hump and make it to the Super Bowl?
“I’m picking them to go to the Super Bowl,” Schatz said. “We have them with the best odds in the AFC of making it again slightly ahead of Kansas City.”
What will be the biggest deciding factor(s) in the Ravens making it to or falling short of the Super Bowl?
“Defense always propels the Ravens,” Schatz said. “Even if their offense is pretty good, we’re going to be talking about Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton and [Nnamdi] Madubuike. If [David] Ojabo or [Odafe] Oweh suddenly takes a nice step forward, that would be a big plus for this team. If they make the Super Bowl, it means that either Ojabo or Oweh took a big step forward.”
Other players who might step up and or breakout this year?
“Trent Simpson,’ Schatz said. “Watching him replace Patrick Queen is a big deal for them.
What’s the biggest hurdle for the Ravens in 2024?
“The hardest thing for the Ravens is the same as all the other best teams in the AFC, which is eight of our top 12 teams are AFC teams which means all eight of those teams could be as good as we think they’re going to be, and one of them still has to miss the playoffs,” Schatz said.