Opponent perspective on the Ravens’ upcoming matchup.
In preparing for Sunday’s matchup, Bleeding Green Nation’s Brandon Lee Gowton and I sat down for a Q&A for one another’s publications.
To read my answers to Gowton’s questions, please check out Bleeding Green Nation.
1. Since the Eagles Week 4 loss to the Buccaneers and Week 5 bye, they’ve rattled off seven straight wins. Did something change? What has been the catalyst?
On offense, the Eagles have shifted to a super run-heavy approach since their Week 5 bye. They currently lead the NFL in rushing play percentage at 56.26%. And the difference between them and the Pittsburgh Steelers in second is the about the same as the difference between second and sixth. Jalen Hurts has been much more efficient as a lower volume passer. Averaging 21.9 attempts over his last seven games, he’s produced 18 total touchdowns, two giveaways, and a 116.6 passer rating. Averaging 33 attempts over his first four games, he logged six total touchdowns, seven giveaways, and an 85.7 passer rating. The catalyst has been Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ offensive line. It’s an elite combination. With Barkley being so unstoppable, it’s hard not to keep feeding him over and over.
On defense, Vic Fangio’s defense has really settled in. There was always some thought that it might take some time for that unit to gel. And not only because Fangio is new to Philly but because his defenses have historically gotten better over the course of a season. Eagles defenders seem to be really comfortable in their roles and communicating with each other. The Eagles are allowing just 12.3 offensive points per game dating back to Week 5 … and that number includes two garbage time touchdowns from their last two games.
2. The Eagles offense is ranked No. 1 in rushing but No. 25 in passing. Do you consider their passing offense a weakness, or more a result of the team building a lead and running the clock out on the ground?
Depends on how you define “weakness.” I don’t think the passing offense is bad. The Eagles rank 11th in dropback EPA and 16th in dropback success rate. But there’s certainly room for improvement. It feels like the Eagles could/should be even better at passing the ball with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith leading the way at wide receiver.
For now, the Eagles are having a lot of success with their run-heavy approach. Hurts has been really efficient as a low volume passer. No real need to go away from that formula when it’s been so effective. Of course, there might come a time when a team puts their full focus on stopping the run and making Hurts beat them with his arm. And perhaps as soon as this weekend. If that’s the case, I’m not totally sure what to expect if the Eagles have to pass the ball a ton. Especially if DeVonta Smith, who’s been ruled questionable due a hamstring injury, isn’t able to suit up.
So, I would say it is a “weakness” relative to stronger aspects of the team. But I’m not feeling pessimistic about it as much as I am uncertain.
3. The Eagles defense is No. 1 in yards allowed, averaging 274.6 YPG. The Ravens have gone up against a few top-ranked defenses already this season and taken them down. What gives you confidence the Eagles can handle the Ravens? What gives you concern?
Again, the Eagles’ defense has just been so dominant dating back to Week 5. While it’s fair to point out their schedule hasn’t been super difficult, they’ve held a number of quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, Cooper Rush) to their worst games this season. Regardless of the level of competition, they’re playing real assignment-sound football, they’re communicating well, and they’re making big plays.
Vic Fangio certainly inspires confidence. He’s drawn up some real good game plans and he’s also shown the ability to quick adjust if things aren’t working.
There’s also reason to feel good about how well the Eagles have covered this season. Rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been really good. Darius Slay will miss this week’s game but Isaiah Rodgers has more than held his own when he’s had to play. Lamar Jackson holds the ball longer than any quarterback and that can obviously work to his advantage in terms of extending plays to either throw or run. But the Eagles’ ability to cover could give their pass rush a chance to get to him or force him into a bad decision or two.
What concerns me is that Jackson and Derrick Henry are just so good that it might not matter what the Eagles try to do against them. They’re probably going to get theirs to some extent. The Eagles losing Brandon Graham for the season is also a big deal. He would’ve been really nice to have against the Ravens’ rushing attack. How they go about replacing him remains to be seen; it’ll likely take a group effort.
4. Give us two players (one offense, one defense) Ravens fans may not know of that could be factors in Sunday’s game?
Offense: Grant Calcaterra (No. 81). The Ravens have allowed the most tight end receptions and the second-most tight end yards this season. Calcaterra’s opportunities will be limited as the second tight end behind starter Dallas Goedert. He’s actually only seen two targets since Goedert returned from a hamstring injury. But he’s made some big plays this season; his 12.7 yards per reception mark would rank fifth in the NFL if he had enough targets to qualify. If DeVonta Smith — who was ruled questionable — can’t play, Calcaterra could have a bigger role than usual with the Eagles potentially leaning more into 12 personnel.
Defense: Zack Baun (No. 53). Baun’s been an unexpected revelation for the Eagles this year. They originally signed him to be a rotational edge rusher/special teams contributor but Fangio looked at him and decided to move him to off-ball linebacker. It sounds crazy to say but he’s arguably playing at an All-Pro level. Baun won NFC Defensive Player of the Week earlier this month. He leads the NFL in “stops” (tackles that constitute a failure for the offense) with five more than the next closest player. He also leads the NFL in Pro Football Focus’s coveraeg grade, right ahead of … Fred Warner. Baun could be key to helping stop the Ravens’ game, covering Mark Andrews at times, and potentially spying Jackson.
5. Eagles are three-point dogs in this game. Do you agree with the line? How do you see this one playing out?
I think it’s a fair line. These are two really good teams. The Eagles rank third in point differential and fifth in DVOA (third in weighted DVOA, which accounts more heavily for recent games). The Ravens rank fifth in point differential and second in DVOA (also second in weighted DVOA). The Eagles might have a slight advantage with the Ravens playing on a short week. But Baltimore obviously has home field going in their favor, though I will be interested to see what the Philly fan presence is like.
I’m leaning Ravens but I don’t feel super confident in my pick, especially given the uncertainty around DeVonta Smith’s status. I also have a hard time betting against Saquon Barkley at the moment. But Jackson and Henry are also excellent. I do think there’s a scenario where the Ravens are able to slow down the Eagles’ rushing attack and their passing game doesn’t do enough, especially if DeVonta doesn’t play.
It’s probably truly a coin flip game, though, hence the line. I’ll say Ravens win, 31 to 28.