Father time is undefeated. But betting against the Yeti at this point is a poor bet. Derrick Henry is a fantasy football stalwart on the back of an enormous workload behind a terrible offensive line. The Ravens lost three of their starters for 2024, but this still might be the best line he’s run behind in years. Pair that with Lamar Jackson opening up rushing lanes? It could be game over for the league. Let’s look at his history, outlook, and ADP to find out if he’s worth the cost in fantasy football for 2024.
Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Outlook: Baltimore Ravens Running Back
2023 in Review
Unfortunately for Titans and fantasy football fans, Derrick Henry saw one of his least efficient years to date. While his yards per attempt and yardage totals dipped, Henry still fell into the endzone enough times to be the RB8 on the year. The offensive line was a mess, and Henry had to muddle his way through for another year, garnering more yards after contact than before. Derrick Henry and Najee Harris were the only top 24 running backs with more yards after contact than before in 2023 (Henry’s numbers are different between FantasyPros and ProFootballReference).
This speaks to the juice he still has left in the tank, despite his tackle-breaking numbers and overall efficiency dropping. His 81 scrimmage yards per game weren’t exactly exciting, but his 12 rushing TDs kept him viable for fantasy.
2024 Projection
Just looking at the raw numbers, Henry is due for a big 2024. If he stays healthy for a full season, 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns feel cautious. He’s never played with a quarterback that can take the pressure off of him like Lamar Jackson can. These read options are going to be a thing of beauty. They might reduce his workload, but with Keaton Mitchell coming off of injury, Rasheen Ali dealing with ailments of his own, and Justice Hill being the most forgettable running back in the NFL there’s no one to spell him reliably.
Lamar has never been big with targeting running backs. However, there are over 70 targets up for grabs using 2023 numbers as a baseline. If Henry can even grab two catches a game to keep his floor safer in PPR, he’s going to be a force in fantasy football.
2024 ADP
According to FantasyPros, Derrick Henry is the ninth running back off the board in PPR for 2024 fantasy football. Considering he was just the RB8 and got a huge upgrade to his situation, he’s an easy target in fantasy football drafts. Drafters are souring on running backs, and he’s falling to the third round. Using his 2023 numbers, he would have been in line with a top-18 wide receiver. Now he’s being drafted after the WR23. Savvy drafters would be wise to load up on wide receivers in the first two rounds. Then they can grab a plug-and-play RB1 in Henry in the third.
While father time could finally catch up to Derrick Henry, the Ravens are paying him to be a focal point of the offense and his fantasy football price is well worth the investment.
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