The need to draft premium positions weighs on Ravens’ shoulders.
Wide Receiver. Offensive Tackle. Outside Linebacker. Cornerback.
Since the Ravens Super Bowl championship 11 seasons ago, these four premium position needs have largely persisted. Some off-season’s, the depth chart required reinforcements at two or three of these positions. This offseason they need all four to maintain a championship-caliber roster.
Zay Flowers is the lone wide receiver under contract beyond the 2024 season; the position group is an obvious long-term need. It is also a short-term need due to the departure of Odell Beckham Jr., who was the team’s most efficient, second-most productive and highest graded receiver last season according to various analytical sources. Specifically, Baltimore needs to add a wideout who excels on the outside to provide injury insurance behind the starters and a succession plan behind Rashod Bateman, not another receiver who will compete with the terrific tight end duo and veteran Nelson Agholor for snaps from the slot.
Ravens brass elected to make offensive tackle a need by trading Morgan Moses away after he performed admirably and graded well while playing through injury last season. Restructuring left tackle Ronnie Stanley’s contract increased the long-term need by making 2024 the final season of his cornerstone contract. In the short term, competition with Daniel Faalele is needed as the mammoth right tackle enters his third season.
Outside linebacker doesn’t necessarily need more bodies for 2024 after the re-signing of Kyle Van Noy, but Odafe Oweh is entering the final season of his rookie contract, pending the Ravens’ decision on his fifth-year option. Development from outside linebacker David Ojabo should offset possible regression from the aging Van Noy, however the loss of Jadaveon Clowney will be felt. Clowney was one of the best pressure generators in the NFL last season; his play in 2023 was valued at $15 million by Over The Cap. An apex pass rusher, whether that be Oweh on the fifth-year option and eventual long-term deal or other acquisition is needed to anchor the edge rusher group long term.
At cornerback, Ronald Darby departed after earning elite coverage metrics and serving as the third outside cornerback in 2023. Baltimore is currently razor thin on perimeter cornerbacks behind Brandon Stephens and the potentially declining Marlon Humphrey. Furthermore, Stephens is also scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent following the 2024 season. Corner is an acute need both short and long term for the Baltimore defense. And like wideout, the specific need is for the length and speed skillset to thrive on the outside, not in the slot where the Ravens currently roster a handful of players who have shown proficiency at nickleback.
Ravens’ brass seemingly put themselves in position to need these premium skillsets perennially by design. After considering the opportunity cost, they were eager to trade early round draft capital and pay a premium contract to inside linebacker Roquan Smith. Despite fielding a top-ranked rushing offense for each of Lamar Jackson’s six seasons with a variety of cost-effective tailbacks and rostering the third highest-paid fullback in the league, the decision makers decided to make Derrick Henry the eighth highest-paid running back in the NFL entering his 30-year-old season. This offseason, they also extended guaranteed contracts to special teamers Chris Board and Deonte Harty.
It seems counter-intuitive to prioritize replaceable positions while hoping the pieces fall into place at the premium positions. Hypothetically, the other 31 teams in the league will push premium skillsets up their draft boards, often leaving devalued positions as best player available when the Ravens go on the clock. And Baltimore will be tempted to take the highest graded player on their board, regardless of positional value or immediate need, as was the case with Trenton Simpson last cycle.
Why would the Ravens voluntarily increase the level of difficulty in building a complete, well balanced roster by paying up at positions some other teams deprioritize while hoping to find values at positions where other teams are willing to overpay? Certainly Head Coach John Harbaugh’s preference for a University of Michigan-style smash-mouth identity plays a part in their roster construction priorities. But there must be a larger strategy in place. In his eternal quest for value, General Manager Eric DeCosta must have decided that zig-zagging away from what other teams are doing is best for Baltimore. Not only in terms of scheme, but roster construction.
The surplus value potential of drafting cost-controlled rookies at the most expensive free agency positions is tremendous. But first, the right prospect must be available at those positions when it comes time for DeCosta to make the pick. The odds of premium position need and value aligning perfectly several times in the early rounds of the upcoming draft is unlikely. Which will almost assuredly put pressure on DeCosta to find bargain veterans at some of these positions late in the summer and perhaps even into the regular season.
At the recent pre-draft press conference, both DeCosta and Harbaugh pointed to their roster building success last summer and preached patience. DeCosta did a masterful job filling out the roster last offseason and by season’s end the Ravens fielded the NFL’s best team. August additions Clowney and Darby, among others, were crucial pieces to Baltimore’s season.
However, veterans of Clowney and Darby’s caliber are not always available at value pricing after the draft. Offensive tackle Alejandro Villanueva and wide receiver Demarcus Robinson are recent cautionary tales that demonstrate the risk in reliance on the third wave of free agency veterans at premium positions.
Ultimately, the success of the upcoming draft and future seasons will be determined by DeCosta’s ability to select talented rookies at the vital positions, including wideout, offensive tackle, edge rusher and perimeter cornerback. With one of the worst future salary cap outlooks, his margin for error is slim.
Whether it be from an exciting rookie or underpaid veteran acquisition, adding cheap talent at the most coveted positions will be vital as Jackson, Smith and Madubuike’s annual cap hits increase. It is hard to envision the club getting over the postseason hump while lacking depth and quality of the 2023 Ravens at the pivotal, aforementioned positions.
Only time will tell whether the Ravens bold roster-building stratagem will be viewed as a stroke of genius or an avoidable miscalculation.