ESPN Sports Analytics Writer Seth Walder has Ravens’ rookie edge rusher Mike Green projected to total double-digit sacks in Year 1.
Over the past few years, ESPN sports analytics writer Seth Walder has tinkered with data to project sacks in the NFL. Predicting sacks is a challenge, seeing as there are numerous variables making it an inexact science, but Walder’s model has had its fair share of accuracy. And when projecting the 2025 rookie class, the model has Ravens’ rookie edge rusher Mike Green projected to be among the best of his class.
Let’s try this again:
Sack forecast for this year’s draft prospects!
This model projects each player’s total sacks over years 1-3 in their NFL careers. It’s intended as a pre-draft model but I had a bug I didn’t manager to squash until today. pic.twitter.com/dpNBELQWmu
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 30, 2025
How trustworthy though is Walder’s data? It’s one thing to point at colored-in charts and numbers, but it’s another thing to see any results.
The Data
Below are the top 9 players from Walder’s 2024 prediction model (Haason Reddick removed) and their 2024 season results. Also included is the amount of games played.
Walder’s model isn’t too far off. In a prediction game built on highly volatile variables and uncertainty, these top nine projections finished with an average difference of -2.144. The biggest misses were Alex Highsmith (-5.2), who missed six games with injury and never got back to 100%. The second largest delta was Judon, who was on an Atlanta Falcons roster devoid of pass rush help. Sometimes, the data misses.
Return to Ravens
If the same delta (-2.144) were to hold true in the case of Green, the rookie edge rusher could be setting the tone quickly for the Ravens’ defense. Some have even likened him to eventual Hall of Fame Raven Terrell Suggs.
“I think so,” CBS Sports’ Mike Renner said on “Glenn Clark Radio.” ”I don’t see him really being limited, because he is so explosive, and his bend is so good, and he is so relentless as a pass rusher that I think he is just going to get it done. While he has a smaller frame, he’s also a very good run defender, too. I think that part of his game got underrated throughout the draft process. He’s a true every-down edge. I don’t think that’s even a debate in my mind.”